Uncle Doug
24 Mar 2017
Re: 6th April - Ex Dividend Bit of a retreat today (2% fall) with some short-term sellers. Volumes nowhere near as big as yesterday's 8% rise. I'm in for the long run and expect £45 to return sometime this year. Add that SP rise to the lovely Divvies and this is a no brainer.
II Editor
24 Mar 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Next target price slashed "A share price target of £50 for LSE:NXT:Next, a level last seen in November, always did seem a stretch for the under pressure fashion retailer – let alone UBS's rather bullish aim of 5,275p, which would represent its highest level since ..."[link]
Uncle Doug
23 Mar 2017
Re: 6th April - Ex Dividend Glad I piled in recently - as did Woody. I seem to remember some people predicting a Divi cut not long ago. So, we have 4 special dividends of 45p (first one in 2 weeks!) each quarter plus the ordinary Divi of 158p with the first 105p (bigger) chunk coming in June. Hmm - I think I might just hold for this 8% yield over the NXT year especially as most of it is front-loaded.Ker-ching!!!
Omaha man
23 Mar 2017
Re: Momentum slipping again Yes it's moved up through both the 30 day and 60 day moving averages so looking much more soundly based now. The big question remaining then is the 90 day currently at £43. I'd be surprised if that doesn't prove a limit given the forecast of falling earnings in the coming year.I don't hold (wouldn't make sense since I was expecting a further decline) becuse I don't see where the business goes from here, but obviously it offers a good yield, particularly if you include the special dividends. I'm sure that will provide support, but medium term progress is going to depend on where the current year forecasts firm up - quite a wide range - and what they can do to revitalise the business.
II Editor
23 Mar 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Contrarians pile into Next despite grim rhetoric "Well, I did warn last week that investors should “buckle up†ahead of LSE:NXT:Next’s annual results this Thursday. In truth, I didn’t expect much from the numbers given January’s shock profits warning and uber-gloomy outlook. I certainly didn’t ..."[link]
Thedarkkn1ght
23 Mar 2017
6th April - Ex Dividend For Special dividend (45p)All together yield now >8%
Rhigos
23 Mar 2017
Re: NXT a recovery play Phil Oakley's SharePad filter works. Anyone who bought after my post but before results out will now be up about 7% 
Uncle Doug
23 Mar 2017
Re: Momentum slipping again Omaha Man "My guess is that we will be in the mid £30's over the next month or so."Care to revise your prediction?
Uncle Doug
23 Mar 2017
Re: Some Things Wrong "btw, NXT SP £41 by end March - you know it makes sense."Told ya !
Bill1703
23 Mar 2017
Re: Next Profits "Games - stock will probably rise in 10 minutes or so - total guess of course!! "FY figures are fine vs expectations, but with a pretty gloomy outlook for the current year - expecting EPS down, by up to 12%. So the stock reaction - up 8% as I write - does suggest the SP has been beaten down to a pretty dire prognosis indeed.FCF remains very strong... with a FCF yield of near-9% on these figures, and today's higher SP. Even with the expected decline in EPS this year, the forward P/E is still around 10x... with an ordinary divi yield just below 4%, but continuing specials on top.All in all, suggests to me that £50 is much more likely than £30 here, with the FCF profile the key attraction... but visibility will remain low. There is a very interesting explanation in the statement, of why they currently prefer specials to buy-backs... in short, they think the shares could well go down for here! Worth bearing in mind...
Rusty Jock
23 Mar 2017
Re: Next Profits Good guess .... its up 6%
gamesinvestor
23 Mar 2017
Next Profits [link] pre-tax profits fell 3.8% to £790.2m last year and warned 2017 will be "another tough year""""Total sales for the year to the end of January declined 1.9% to £4.1bn as retail revenues shrank 2.9% but sales for Next Directory increased 4.2%.""""Earnings per share declined 0.3% to 441.3p and the total full year ordinary dividend was held flat at 158p.""Games - stock will probably rise in 10 minutes or so - total guess of course!!
Rhigos
20 Mar 2017
Re: NXT a recovery play gamesincestor, Article on value traps interesting. I've looked at Green King several times also I eat and drink once a week at one of their pubs, but the declining SP puts me off buying their shares. Good to to see Phil was positive about NXT. I would not buy BT shares again, lost a lot on them about 16 years ago.
gamesinvestor
20 Mar 2017
Re: NXT a recovery play ""NXT only popped out of recovery play filter""R - This article Phil wrote covers dividend traps and it mentions Next, BT and Greene King as 3 of the positive ones.[link] sure I agree with him on BT but Greene King looks reasonable and Next -- well I'm on the fence at the moment, as the shops always look empty when I go near them, yet the Greene King pubs are always packed. I suppose if you can't afford the clothes you could always have a pint so to speak.The boozer business has taken a hammering over the years and possibly unfairly because of the skewed tax system. There were 80 odd thousand 5 or 6 years ago -- there are 50K plus now and even at the current closure rate, they will soon be a rarity.Next seems like a reasonable business but they are having their wings trimmed by ASOS, and all the other online charlies. £30 might be interesting if it ever swooned that low.Games
Rhigos
20 Mar 2017
NXT a recovery play SharePad now has a library of filters which I have been playing with. Today I ran my portfolio of 40 shares through various filters. NXT only popped out of recovery play filter by Phil Oakley. Criteria were:% change since 1y low min 5%ROCE min 10%TTM EBIT yield min 7Net debt to EBITDA max 1Market Cap (m) min 25Result for NXT: 1.9%, 60.2%, 12.9, 0.9 and £5701.4I have confidence in management of NXT. They seem to be working hard to increase shareholder value with share buybacks and special dividends. They have a long history of returning value as shown by 20 year SP chart showing a 600% increase in SP. The halving of SP since highs of 2015 are unusual and I think sell-off overdone.
