casabanker
01 Apr 2016
Re: Acquisition Well this share has needed something to kick start it into life. The purchase of Abode looks a very good deal for NXR as it is profitable and, as you say, Hardboy, fits in nicely with the bigger network provided by NXR. The purchase is cheap and bought with cheap money debt, an all round good deal. Well done to the management. All we need now is good end of year results and a dividend increase, lol. If that happens, I see the sp rising to over 200 and then some.Casa,
Hardboy
01 Apr 2016
Acquisition Can't say I know anything about the mob they are buying, but it sounds like a good fit and buying at a PE of around 8 looks like a good deal. There are bound to be synergies and presumably Norcross' bigger sales network should help sales for Abode's products.
casabanker
18 Mar 2016
Re: Shares held Hello Hardboy,That would be the most likely cause for this share under performing. NXR has a third of their business in South Africa but, after speaking to the CFO, there doesn't seem to be a major effect on expected returns. In any case, the depressed sp is reflecting the possible drag of the SA business already. Casa.
Hardboy
17 Mar 2016
Re: Shares held recent updates have suggested the business is ticking along nicely, but I think one thing which is holding it back is its exposure to South Africa; and fears over the economy there.
casabanker
17 Mar 2016
Shares held The RNS today reveals that Miton now hold 17.5% of total NXR shares. Miton are very good at picking small Company value stocks. I have recently bought two more tranches with an average of just over 170 including dealing costs. NXR is such a slow burn but hopefully it will come good soon. In the meantime, the dividend payment level is reasonable. Casa.
casabanker
26 Feb 2016
Re: Low share price I might also add that the interim dividend was hiked up from 1.8 to 2.2p. If targets are met, there will be a similar proportion increase to the final dividend say from 3.8 to 4.5p. That, of course, is purely my speculation and was not discussed with NXR. Casa.
casabanker
26 Feb 2016
Low share price I spoke to the CFO today to discuss the low sp. The South African element represents about a third of the total business which is a higher proportion than I thought. The SA government has appointed another Finance minister and he has introduced some austere legislation. As a result, the Rand has improved against other currencies and stabilised. The home market is challenging but there is no change to the expected full year outcome. The forward EPS is 23p which at the current sp shows a forward PER of 7.56. Even if they miss that figure and it is 20p, the PER is still under 9. I have bought some more at just over 75p today.Casa.
Hardboy
11 Dec 2015
Re: Sold out I sort of agree with both of you. Short term I think the South African situation will put a dampener on the market's view on Norcross; but longer term, it is undervalued, businesses in both countries seem to be doing OK, and surely the mineral weakness can not get that much worse. In some ways a weakening rand makes little difference to Norcross - the UK businesses are run in the UK and the SA ones in SA, almost as stand alone businesses. I'm not sure how much the South African business has to import, but these costs will obviously go up, and of course if the SA economy is being badly effected by the mineral weakness it will affect all businesses there. (And let's face it even their cricket team has been performing badly - mind that will soon change when England get there.) On the other hand it may be an opportunity to export more even if it's just to neighbouring countries. Sometimes running a business with activities in 2 countries when the currencies diverge can bring opportunities for moving costs, operations, sales etc. Longer term; miners are cutting back on production, so not far down the line, mineral prices will rebound, and the mining industry will rise like a phoenix from - well a mine.The darkest hour is just before dawn!
pmrleahy
11 Dec 2015
Re: Sold out I can understand your nervousness and it's falling further this afternoon. Norcros seemed to be holding up OK so I am sticking with it for now especially as it was so undervalued anyway. It means I risk taking a frustrating hit in the short-term but if commodity prices improve (and surely we're getting closer and closer to the bottom) that should help the South African economy. I think this is potentially a good buying opportunity especially as a lot of growth from Norcros will come from acquisitions. Commodity prices can't fall forever!
gretel
11 Dec 2015
Sold out Had a change of heart and decided to sell my (relatively small) holding at essentially break-even.This is because of the deteriorating situation in South Africa,The weakening of the rand has accelerated since the September interims, and yesterday got a lot worse after the unexpected sacking of the South African Finance Minister:[link] confidence in the SA economy has worsened considerably given the rout in commodity prices, which may accelerate a decline in consumer purchasing there.Other SA-biased stocks got hammered yesterday. NXR may or may not also come under a little pressure.Good luck all.
gretel
30 Nov 2015
Fidelity buying, now almost 10% RNS - good news, with Fidelity buying more and now with over 6m shares, or almost 10% of the company:[link]
gretel
25 Nov 2015
Edison increase forecasts today Edison's new report has "increased current-year EPS estimates by 6.7% and by just over 2% in both FY17 and FY18".They now go for: this year : 21.1p EPS, 6.4p divi next year : 22.6p EPS, 6.8p divi[link] Conclusion: "Valuation: Good value and potential for moreFollowing our increase in estimates, Norcros’s P/E multiples are now in single digits in all three forecast years. With a three-year EPS CAGR of 11.1% the company’s PEG ratio is 1.0x. In EV/EBITDA terms, an FY16 5.7x multiple reduces to 4.5x by FY18 on our estimates (after adjusting for pensions recovery cash). Business performance is good and if Norcros can further supplement this with more acquisitions, the above multiples could turn out to be significantly lower at the current share price"
Oxtrader
12 Nov 2015
Re: Value Indeed these are great results, covers lost ground over the past few weeks but I'm sure it'll support for future Share price growth over the coming months too!I'm not one for such an aggressive rise in dividends, but regardless very welcome
Hardboy
12 Nov 2015
Value This does not seem to be a particularly seasonal business, so FY EPS may be around double the interim - 23p. Interim dividend has always been half the final dividend. So we can expect a full year dividend of 6.6p.That puts it on a PE of 8.4p & yield of 3.4%.This appears to be a healthy growing business; and I think it's good value at this price.
Hardboy
12 Nov 2015
Interims Excellent.Sales up 9%, Profit up 34%, Cash Flow up 15% EPS up 46%, Dividend up 19%.
