Hardboy
29 Sep 2016
Re: SP You're right - it's never good to see directors selling, but these days the share options are quite a big part of their package, and they all need to get some liquid funds from time to time. The bottom line is he has not reduced his ownership, and that is worth over £1m, so he's still got plenty of skin in the game. However I do not understand this share price. PE of 7 & yield over 4% for a company with a great record of growth and some market leading brands. Their commentary has mentioned some challenging conditions, but still they keep managing to grow sales & profits. I do not understand the continued weakness.
bizana
29 Sep 2016
SP CEO sells 166k shares (options) at £1.54Hardly a vote of confidence.
Hardboy
30 Jul 2016
Re: IMS CB,I agree entirely with your summary. and I've read articles in the press (Motley Fool) saying the same thing. It's not up to 7% of my investment pile, but I did increase my holding by 40% on the day of the results. Of course the day we decide to cut out losses or take a marginal gain will be the day the sp starts taking off to recognise its full value.
casabanker
29 Jul 2016
Re: IMS Hardboy,I've described NXR as an enigma previously and that description remains as far as I'm concerned. If commodities hadn't crashed, the South African economy would be stronger and if the referendum vote had resulted in Remain, I guess the sp for NXR would be higher, probably around 200. NXR seems to be sensitive, nay over sensitive to outside macro influences. The recent sp fall down to 150 again, is amazing considering the recent results. It looks a solid investment and maybe it will be in time. I hope I live long enough, lol. The recent drop to 150 also tempts me to buy big but then I remind myself that it has done this on many previous occasions. I have over 7% invested here which I think, on balance, is enough. The divi isn't exceptional but it is regular, increasing nicely and set at a level that shouldn't damage capital growth.Casa.
corporate investor
28 Jul 2016
Re: IMS I am concerned that the underlying sales on a like for like basis are down by 5%. This suggests that acquistions are masking the decline in the core business, this is at a time when market has been strong but future could be more uncertain. Having said that the weak pound should benefit the company and increase profits from S.A however sterling has recovered some ground. Too much uncertainty at the moment.
Hardboy
27 Jul 2016
IMS Today's announcement takes a bit of analysing. the basic fact is Like for like constant exchange rate sales grew at 2.6%; which I guess is acceptable in the current conditions. The acquisitions are going well meaning reported sales are up 13%. The rand has been weak during the period meaning the very good performance in South Africa is diluted by currency movements. Presumably that should change in Q2. South Africa is going like a train with sales up 19%; and thanks to the acquisitions the UK is up over 18%. However like for like UK sales were down 5% due to some challenging retail channels. The share price came down with the Brexit vote & is staying low. Presumably the market is treating it in consort with the house builder sector. So on PE basis the shares look cheap; and yield an acceptable 4+% with a very well covered dividend. This screams buy. The South African contribution should be magnified with the weak £ - another reason to buy. The Taylor Wimpey CEO on Bloomberg this morning said they had not noticed any change in market conditions since Brexit, so this would suggest a robust UK market. However I am worried about the "Challenging Retail Channels" in the UK. If a recession does come this would be exaggerated. I'm tempted to top up, but have reservations. Opinions welcomed.
Hardboy
07 Jul 2016
Re: The market is always right As businesses the UK business & SA business are run pretty much in isolation, so exchange rates don't affect each business too much (except where materials have to be imported of course.) The weak pound will aid the profit in £ from the SA business. Another drag on the sp post Brexit is of course that anything building related is poison at the moment. But I agree with you - it seems a very well run business, with fundamentals suggesting a much higher price; and I doubt their business will be affected to much by Brexit.
casabanker
06 Jul 2016
Re: The market is always right The Dutchman,You have bought in at a good price imo. The share is an enigma. It should be priced at over 200 but here we are at 150. Apart from the South African business that is likely causing the drag on the sp, the overall economic issues both globally and here in the UK are in uncharted territory. After the financial crisis, unlimited credit has been unleashed, pushing up indebtedness for private individuals, companies and the public sector. We really need a rise in interest rates but that would lead to widespread insolvency and a property crash. We are more likely to see a reduction in interest rates along with more QE. The effect will be negligible so the next effort could be helicopter money. Then watch out for inflation. Another negative is that the gbp is falling further today. That may reinforce the prediction that the UK will slip into recession. That would not bode well for NXR. Personally, I am not convinced that a mild recession will blight NXR's performance too much. The UK's populace has seen a rise in real wages and unemployment is not high currently. In the meantime we will have to just sit tight and reap the dividend. Casa.
The Dutchman
06 Jul 2016
Re: The market is always right I've sold Galliford Try and invested some in these at 149. Actually this is the first "british share" I've bought since Xit day, to date I've been selling UK shares and buying international or Far East funds.
casabanker
05 Jul 2016
The market is always right NXR is an example of a share that is under rated by the market in spite of its strong balance sheet, excellent performance, low PER and improving dividends. It has business in the UK and South Africa with the South African contribution being around a third of the total. It is all profitable. I can only think that it is the Sourth African portion that is causing the share's poor performance due to the South African economy just escaping junk ratings. In my opinion, the market is penalising a perfectly good company and surely canot be right in the medium term. I bought some more shares in NXR yesterday at 163.9.Casa.
Hardboy
14 Jun 2016
Excellent Results Already on low valuations, these figures (profits up over 25%, 18% rise in dividend, and an optimistic outlook) should be powering the share price to new heights, but sadly the market has serious Brexit Blues, and so everyone is dragged down. PE of 6.3, Price to book of 2.2, yield 3.8%. with low debts and positive growth outlook. It has to be a raging buy.
foolish learner
04 Jun 2016
must be due to go up hows this for a Franklin Independant as a brokers note "Out of 1 analysts covering Norcros PLC (LON:NXR), 2 rate it a “Buy”, 0 “Sell”, while 0 “Hold”. This means 100% are positive. Norcros PLC has been the topic of 5 analyst reports since November 12, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc. Below is a list of Norcros plc (LON:NXR) latest ratings and price target changes."This aside, i am hoping the price is about to rise back to £2 plus (was 20p plus pre the 10;1 consolidation) Dividend due which should be worth 3.8p or so giving a yield around 3.5% with probably a lot of cover. A good step up in the dividend could be a good start
Hardboy
05 May 2016
Fat prophets Have released a research note on them which is very positive. Sorry I can not provide a link, but here's a sample The full year trading update from Norcos was not inspiring with like-for-like sales down by 2.2% in the UK. This implies a meaningful slowdown in the six months to March 2016 given that the first half saw positive like-for-like sales in the UK.The strong underlying growth in South Africa was offset in the period by the weakness of the rand against sterling. The currency may now be starting to stabilize which should bolster Norcros in the current year.In terms of the acquisition strategy and the deals undertaken to date appear to have worked out well. The target of £420m revenue in 2018, though, looks to be overambitious given last year’s revenue at £236m.The current financial year will be boosted by the takeover of Abode Home Products and a full year’s contribution from Croydex. In our view, the low valuation more than offsets the slowdown in the UK.Accordingly, Norcros will remain firmly held in the Fat Prophets portfolio. For members withoutexposure we recommend the shares as a buy.
casabanker
05 Apr 2016
Re: Acquisition Morning Hardboy,Totally agree. The share price is only blighted by the South African business. Selling it off is one option but if it's profitable and likely to grow on news of the economy improving over there, then why not hold on? I feel there is too much short termism these days. I waited five years for AMC to obtain its mining licence in Russia so I can bide my time with NXR, particularly as I am being paid to wait. Casa.
Hardboy
02 Apr 2016
Re: Acquisition Hi Casa,The dividend is pretty healthy and well covered any way, but a rise is always useful (iii need to update their fundamentals page to account for the share consolidation.) I'm sure that the biggest drag on the share price is that 1/3 of their income comes from South Africa - an economy heavily reliant on minerals, the price of which have been weak for ages. That leads to a weak rand too. But the latest update we had showed business there is pretty resilient. Then a Brexit vote is putting doubt into UK industry, but again I don't think NXR's UK business will be too badly affected by an out vote. I would love the price to get nearer where it should be (approaching 250 I reckon) but if it takes time I'll just have to lie back and keep talking the dividend,
