okgetreal
22 Nov 2017
Commentary [link]
Another Jacko
30 Jan 2017
Re: Top Trumps For 2017... Well the interims are out and they are awful. A large loss and substantial cash outflow, although cause in part by working capital movements.I can see the dividend being cut altogether here.
Wexboy
30 Jan 2017
Top Trumps For 2017... Newmark Security (NWT:LN) (2.4% of current portfolio):Share Price: GBP 1.45pMarket Cap: GBP 6.8 MillionA special situation…which actually obscures an underlying growth story. While these trading updates (here & here) have crucified the share price, Newmark’s electronic division still looks like the real problem here. For almost a decade now, revenue’s unchanged, while divisional margins declined relentlessly – from 20-23%, to a £(0.5) million loss today. Poor return on capital was bad enough, but losses kill any argument for keeping the division. And after 4 years as CEO, shareholders presumably have little confidence Marie-Claire Dwek can still deliver a turnaround – and her hands are now full dealing with the larger asset protection division. Noting Chairman Maurice Dwek always ran a tight ship here, the situation appears untenable – something’s gotta give…Presuming an eventual sale, a larger competitor could easily wring 10-15%+ margins from this division – achieving a 0.5 Price/Sales multiple (i.e. £3.8 million) seems reasonable. [And noting net assets of £5.1 million, it also looks salvageable in a wind-down/piece-meal sale]. Who knows what the FY-2017 result will be, but let’s assume 50% of said consideration ends up incinerated, in terms of a once-off net loss (in reality, I suspect a working capital reversal will mitigate cash losses).Such a scenario would imply £6.2 million of cash, close to the current market cap…tagging NWT as a possible target. It also implies a negligible 0.04 Price/Sales multiple for an asset protection division that’s averaged £13.3 million revenue pa in the past 4 years & boasts average (pre-impairment) margins of 22%+ (nearer 14%, inc. un-allocated corporate expense). It also grew revenue 17% pa & 10% pa in the last 5 & 10 years, presenting a ridiculously cheap growth opportunity. [Plus, I believe this growth trajectory confirms management’s assertion a poor FY-2017 result will prove nothing more than a timing issue, in terms of an eventual sales payoff]. As for Newmark’s cash, using it to fund share buybacks & bolt-on acquisitions would also add substantial shareholder value. [It also justifies maintaining the dividend – a 6.9% yield offers compelling support]. Meanwhile, my marked-down position size looks about right…’til we finally see some kind of sensible/decisive capital allocation here from the CEO/board.For this & other top picks, check/Google my latest 'Top Trumps For 2017...' post on the Wexboy investment blog.
the real stan
07 Sep 2016
Re: AGM Very good points. The important thing is shareholders go along and question management so they get to know we care!
okgetreal
06 Sep 2016
Re: AGM I went in 2012 Stan and I've just checked my diary and I'm free. I might very well attend. In 2012 I held 3.5m shares but I only own 1m now. Very keen to question around the overseas operations and understand how the closure of banking branches might impact. Finally, is there a grand plan for a £50m valuation or is it about supporting the family stake? One last throw away would be perhaps a 25:1 consolidation to give the share price some respectability, I know it is only window dressing but it would be good to lose the penny share status.My thoughts on a page.
the real stan
06 Sep 2016
AGM Just been informed the AGM is on 29th September at 11am in their London office. They never make any announcement just send out formal notification to shareholders which I never receive as I hold through a nominee (don't we all?)Is anyone going?
Another Jacko
14 Aug 2016
Results soon HiHopefully the results will be out this week then we can see just how good/bad the second half was and get a forecast for next year. If and it's a big if the second half was anywhere near as good as the first then these are a strong buy IMO as with £5m net cash and a market cap of just £8.5m the business is valued at just £3.5m yet made first half earnings of 0.15p.
Blanketstacker
15 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning Quite right. I was just too greedy.
Another Jacko
13 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning Hi again Blanketstacker.This was actually one of my most successful trades of the last couple of years. I bought at 1.75p and sold at over 4.3p so a very tidy profit.I think you'll be lucky to get them for 1.6p but never say never.
okgetreal
12 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning Please excuse my typos, too much wine . I am sure you get my drift. I also notice that my comments from 2002 have gone. There is now nothing before 2004. I am clearly too old.
okgetreal
12 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning Having follow this stock for 13 years I am happy to give it a strong buy at this price. I could list a very long list of reasons to buy at this price but I'm just happy to be adding at this price it would have been nice not to have purchased250,000 shares just before the fall but I have since added another 250,000 shares at this lower price and will be adding again in the next week. I cannot beleive this price is where it is but that is the market for you.
Blanketstacker
12 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning Bizarrely this has been onmy watch list for a while too! I am waiting for 1.6 though.
Another Jacko
06 Jul 2016
Re: Profits warning But the company is stuffed full of cash, maintaining the divi won't make any difference, it isn't large anyway. I bought some today as I think they are cheap after this news, the EV is only £3.5m and they are still profitable albeit at a lower level. Last year was an exceptional year anyway so I'm not too worried about today's news.
shakyhands
06 Jul 2016
Profits warning I really wish companies wouldn't try to prop up the share price by maintaining the divi in these situations.It doesn't work.They have admitted that operating profits will be lower than expected,so a cut in the divi would be prudent.
okgetreal
20 May 2016
Re: Solid trading update 3.5+ the divi. I'd like more obviously but the near touching 5p to drop to 2.7p in the last 12 months is never nice for those that got in near the top. Steady buy and hold up to 3.5p to create a new floor there would do investors nicely and leave plenty of room in the price for future growth.
