Tuaca
18 Jul 2017
Re: not much to say Hi PushTo be honest i wrote this off a long time ago, i would consider selling if i got to the point where i could recover 50% of my original investment, sounds silly calling it an investment. i dont trust Minty as he has not cared about the share price right from the start and he has thrown millions away without having a result even likely. Maybe he will prove me wrong but i doubt it. LT is probably recovering some of his loses by selling a few at this level and buying in much cheaper but i never intended to do that. I wanted oil out of Garden Hill as it is there for the taking.if the company has spent even half of the money they have had over the last 6 years on garden hill i am sure we would be in a lot different place now.make money out of Garden Hill then progress the marginal stuff, it was simple.
Push2Gush
18 Jul 2017
Curious !!!! I know there are a lot more people chatting on LSE these days, but for all the volumes traded recently, you would expect SOME new faces to post something, but there is no new ones that i can see, I know there is a lot out there that don't post, but it's a bit odd. who's moving stock, who's buying them ?RIGHT, I am gone, will look back occasionally, Fingers X'd for those long suffering.
Push2Gush
18 Jul 2017
Re: not much to say Hi Tuaca,Good luck to you, all I can say is be sure to have your own exit strategy ready, don't let others sponge out all potential profit taking to leave you back where you started or less again & wondering how !! why !!! what happened !!! then have to sit and wait another lifetime for the opportunity, if it comes !! .Its only real and profit once banked and then don't look back !!!Typical problem is if this mysteriously rallied to say 10p, then there would be some yippin about a quid, and the psychological torture begins, no one, wife, family, friends will ever laugh or condemn you for making something, you live to fight another day and sometimes even a small profit makes a big difference to peoples lives.
Tuaca
18 Jul 2017
not much to say It does seem they do want to dilute the shares at every opportunity, regardless of that if they keep the pressure on it could come good in the end and if they let it. Oil out of Garden Hill was the reason i invested, but since then approx 6 years ago they have spent all the money on progressing margin oil development which has amounted to nothing so far.Anyway rant over.Hopefully the next news will take it higher again once profit taking is over.
kmack46
18 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Great read Push
Push2Gush
18 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Hi Sierra,I do not plan on re-following NUOG, it was just my opinion on a post earlier (so those that do not like can breath 
I honestly do not know how well NUOG did their DD or final agreement structure, other than what is already known, but they did not do much of a decent job on the DD or agreement with BS. How much pressure were NUOG getting behind the scenes from the NF authorities ? How desperate were NUOG to get someone on board to kick start the work ? Maybe there was no issue to push them, just a genuine interested party ? which give far more strength to keep control of any agreement rather than being pushed to accept anything on the table. I still think NUOG should have done this on their own, taken responsibility for the field and prove their OWN self generated belief of what exists, but this lot are still nothing more than shirt & tie office dwellers who really are not for getting their hands dirty at all, they should have put their own money where their mouths are. NUOG claim to be front line MFD specialists but then go agree to let someone else come up with a plan and do the work on what was their own 100% owned marginal ONSHORE field. !!!!I also feel that NUOG knows it is going to take some considerable time to even start seeing a $ of revenue in their account, but I don't think this is what NUOG are focused on right now. I suspect this is all about "booking" reserves associated to them, This opens a significant window of "potential" reserves based financing, The question with this outfit will always be about what they will do with such funds, it is a quick door to funds without share dilution but you massively cut off the hopeful constant revenue stream from established production to manage the RBL & associated interest. If they do go this way then those funds HAVE to work, they have to open another door quickly or it becomes another pointless exercise consumed over months and years of no a lot, Which leaves retail holders with nothing for their interest in the Co. Lets face it, this outfit has squandered multi-millions over the years and what is there to show for that ??Not even sure what happened to Phoenix etc in the N.Sea ??The SP may rise, it may go to some stupid unjustified value, I have seen this on a couple of Aim oils the last few months which ended 75% or more below the recent highs, I am convinced modern trading systems (orchestrated/manipulated) are now often responsible for this occurrence, be it planned or bot's doing their own thing or double bagging on an orchestrated rise to short it back off and double bag all the way, Try following trading patterns etc these days, they make little sense, so it will not surprise me to see NUOG jump well above a warranted value, but I won't touch anything I do not believe has some backbone to support the value/MC.The grayness of information provided always allows them wiggle room, retail holders can NEVER really piece together information to genuinely conclude their own Co value and forward expectation, making it a poorly informed/educated gamble, I hope more transparency comes through sooner than later to allow better understanding and personal evaluation but I doubt it will, because this suits the way they operate.
Work2Rule
18 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Plus a farm in for other wells and maybe re-defining the Garden Hill trend again
SierraBravo
18 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Push,Always useful to read your thoughts.From a view of the costing which pvf are entitled to recoup i would assume that there is some sort of pre-agreed schedule for the charge rates based on the costs to pvf of equipment hire plus manpower on some sort of cost plus basis. I would hope the manpower is at less than full commercial cross charge rates otherwise pvf are getting two bite at the cherry in many ways.In commercial business terms though whats not to like? There are two possible outcome from the start points. Neutal being the failure case and some free revenue in the success case.However the commercial case and the commercial case are different things through.We know, from previous accounts, that sales were at 8% under wti, transport approx 25$ and lifting costs around 10. This leaves about 8$. But highly geared to rising oil price.To make, say, a useful £1m / year this would require a flow rate of approx 1100 (550 to nuog).Whilst this is obviously a great help it would not fully cover operational costs. To me it seems a good result will provide stability and reduce dilution going forwards. But is unlikely to be tranformational - yet.
Push2Gush
17 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Hi Rich,I expect it to be more of a Work over rig than a larger drilling type rig, so it will be easy to mobilize and far cheaper.I would expect they will probably run coiled tubing to see if that can facilitate clearing the "assumed" blockage. This would be again a far cheaper option than stacking up enough pipe to run all the way to bottom. It isn't a big deal either way, even if they do need to get pipe in to run and work to bottom.They got the pick of the rig world out there with so many stacked and hungry to do anything at bargain prices. They may be able to do this on a shoestring budget ranging from $20-50k/day covering total operational costs. Question is, what will PVF invoice it at ??PVF is doing the work and associated equipment required, so they can bill it however they seem fit and they will get it back out from the production return. They could make more than enough to justify the venture just based on middle man billing over the weeks or even months they have equipment in field. Recasing, cementing, cement evaluation, well control, etc etc should be fairly quick, maybe a week to complete that phase, but it takes as long as they want it to take !!!!Flow testing is also a big unknown, they have NEVER established what you would consider "stable" flow from this well and there are a number of potential reasons that happened, but it is likely to be more than one typical factor, so it is going to take some serious effort to hone the well to flow at whatever rate in a stable, continuous condition. Getting this right could take days or weeks.Kmack notes about variable pumps, this is not particularly new at all, yes variable helps but they are still complicated and the design & conditions need to be right to work effectively. They are also not designed to be switched off and on regularly, they do not like it at all, so once running you want to be sure the productivity is within the range of the variable selected. the other major factor is to ensure the pump remains in wellbore fluid, as this is the coolant for the motors, run a pump dry or in limited fluid and it does not last long.I am curious how they established there is a supposed "blockage", I can't recall them running a tractor or coiled tubing to establish a blockage exists, the last actual intervention I recall was hen they did the acid clean.I still hold concern over the "overall" reservoir quality, this whole area is geologically heavily tortured, which can be great for fractures & migration but can make for some serious micro pocketing and isolation from variations in permeability, so it ill be very interesting to see how well bottom hole pressures maintain once they start the eventual flow testing. It is likely the same reason Hunt got a great flow rate initially but exhausted the viable production fairly quickly from the original vertical well.Remember the last time Enegi team were out there with low shares in issue and the hype they were going to get things moving, only to find they were grooming BS to take it on ? Imagine if Enegi had done a cash call at the time to manage it themselves, it hit what ?? 17-18p and that was before anything much other than them going over there had occurred, they JUST never get it right to the detriment of retail shareholders, they missed the best opportunity the Co ever had to raise the funds and do it themselves. Now you got a godzillion shares in half of something very marginal and no payback for some considerable time if production is realised & OK, I am sure NUOG will find further reason to make more cash calls before a barrel hits the market.I still have this as priced in for modest flow, they are going to need to demonstrate the drawdown on the wellbore and reservoir extent from a genuine source and not another "internal" evaluation. I do not trust him one bit and the price movements are not matching the reality.For UKOG, its management is supremely strong and they have
rich-cardiff
17 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Push ...... Yes I'm still here Reading the PVF Energy timetable of intervention. What would you estimate the costs to be for removing the obstruction, flow test. Rig installation, Recasing and the installation of a down hole pump ? As an aside your thoughts on UKOG bought some under 3p
kmack46
17 Jul 2017
Artificial Lift Pumps Technology at its best:[link] they get this well cleared out and completed there is no reason why this well will not be a success. With more wells to follow.KM
kmack46
17 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Variable speed lift pumps adjustable dependant on what the pressure is.[link] successful it wont be just one wellKM
Push2Gush
17 Jul 2017
Re: It's been heavily pumped...(Hmmm?..) Hi Blue Horseshoe,For GH, I think they will get it to flow OK, if they can get some early understanding of the true bubble point and gas/oil ratio's before installing an artificial lift system (ESP etc).The bigger hurdle is the permeability and compartmentalization that may be present in and around GH.I would almost certainly expect significant variation in permeability (the ability for oil to flow through the related formation and type), and that affects how easily the wellbore replenishment occurs.If you get the AL (artificial lift) design wrong then you either strip out the wellbore because you are effectively sucking it faster than it can replenish, or you run a pump or other AL options that may be underwhelming, meaning you are getting less to surface than the well and reservoir are capable of giving.The Horizontal sidetrack has the advantage of intersecting & weaving along the target formation and offsetting some permeability and compartmentalization that could be far more notable in deviated or vertical type wells. Also if the horizontal is directionally correct then you are at the upper side of the target formation and replenishment is significantly improved.MY opinion is that the eventual production in the short term should be enough to satisfy the cost recovery, though I expect the cost to be larger than anticipated because of the nature of the field and geology, which may add time and cost through trial and error in correct design and selection. I generally feel eventual "stable" production after initial reservoir drawdown has settled will be quiet small.Do I see it as a game changer for NUOG ? Nope,,,,, this shower has kicked in heavy dilution for peanuts, transparency of costs and financing is pish, meaning where are the raised funds going and where is Minty's side of the costs relative to his side. my feeling is it is already priced in now, so any negative on the operations going forward will punish it hard.As for the MFD side (in my opinion), well I have said it enough times, what they offer is old hat & there are plenty of proven cheap options out there for any Co to consider with far better support and design, So that leaves MFD as nothing more than a window dressing for a lot of nonsense rampy cash calls and nothingness, as has happened already. Anyway, back to my rock,,,,,,, GL all who are blinded by not a lot.
woodcroft53
14 Jul 2017
Re: The climb to 2p just got harder!!! So - you can guess what happens next. A share consolidation of 1 for 10 and then within a month the pro-rata sp dropping to 5p or 6p
SierraBravo
14 Jul 2017
Re: The climb to 2p just got harder!!! Video,I recall the various RNS gave funding for marginal fields as a combination of prof services with deferred payments and equity stake in the field.If you look at the accounts and/or the gazette entry via ch website you will see that there is net negative shareholders funds (i.e. liabilities in excess of assets) of around 100k. This is purely because of the forward liabilities. So yes, technically insolvent, but in no way relevant until the amounts fall due and the creditor pressess for payment.Who know what the 2016 accounts will show of course.
