NewRiver REIT Live Discussion

devonplay 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again It’s certainly not easy Prefs, but I guess both Grey and I were investing in EM when it was previously out of fashion! It’s never easy being a contrarian. I bought some of these yesterday, so I guess not best timed, but I’m no where near to having enough skin in this game to loose sleep over it. Regional is also having a bad day. I thought this weeks update from them was pretty good. If you haven’t seen it: [link] [link] DL DL

PrefInvestor1 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again Hi All, High street train wreck continues, John Lewis this time - see article below:- BBC News John Lewis half-year profits slump 99% The retailer's half-year profits plunge to £1.2m amid discounting "extravaganza days" by rivals. Not that this should affect any landlords as I think that JL own their own buildings ?. Not sure about Waitrose who are included in theses results apparently. NRR taken a hit today though down to ~246, thats a yield of over 10% isnt it !!. INTU and HMSO not affected which is interesting. FTSE continues to slip downwards… ATB Pref

devonplay 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again There’s a commission Pref. I don’t disagree with caution. I’m not sure what the prevailing rate is, I believe it’s 1% or less. I won’t have to pay. I haven’t checked recently if it’s changed. Happy to do so if I remember. I havent looked at the site for a few days, but there’s a usually a range from 5-9% You have counter party risk, I guess the article says that. I hope they are successful as I think it’s a really interesting proposition. That’s why I’m invested in their equity. After a slow start there’s been a real increase in the volume of money being invested. I suspect I’lll be picking issues that I’lm willing to hold until redemption. Like all these things, time will tell. I’m expecting there to be a softer Brexit now, even the Chequers deal. No Deal’s not really going to be in the European interest, they really can’t want an ultra low regulated neighborhood of the door step can they? Although if I was in their shoes the service v goods thing would worry me. What high values good don’t come with a service these days. Most manufacturers have seen the value of an eco-system havent they? I backed OpenBook on Kickstarter they other day. Do you know about them? DL DL

PrefInvestor1 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again Hmmm I am expecting a no-deal brexit or at best a very hard one. Really dont see a soft brexit as a realistic possibility - pessimist that I am !. I am taking no immediate action on my REITs but am considering the course of action I outlined in the event that it becomes clear that my expectations are correct. WiseAlpha looks like an interesting idea, I have tried directly investing in corporate bonds before and found that the typical rate of return to be very low, unless you get in on the initial issue of a bond then the price you pay limits your yield even on what appears to be a high yield bond. Clearly there are risks with the WiseAlpha platform and one would need to thoroughly understand the costs involved, but starting with a few small investments would be a way to work out most of those issues I guess. Be interested to know how you get on, so if you can post any details of how you get on Id be interested. Looking at this article:- This is Money – 2 Jun 16 Now you can invest in corporate loans - with just £100 WiseAlpha gives armchair investors the chance to invest in the secured loans of big corporations such as Virgin Media and Eddie Stobart. Previously, these were the preserve of pension funds and banks. The screenshots shown make it look like they are collecting a group of investors to purchase a given bond. By while the coupon may well be as shown the critical issue is what you have to pay for the bond, which normally would NOT be the issue price but might be higher (or lower). That plus WiseAlphas costs would be the determining factor on whether it was likely to be profitable. And of course the article makes the point that you may have problem selling your investment when you want to do that. That too could affect the viability of the scheme in my mind. Anyway ATB Pref

devonplay 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again Hi Pref’s I already have holdings in a number of those and in normal circumstances, when Trump isn’t negotiating, they rise nicely when sterling slumps. Most I bought in times when EM was even more unpopular! So, one of the attractions is the possibility there might be double figure returns for REITs if we get a soft Brexit and consequently strengthening sterling. With that mind set, it’s a possible “hedge” for EM investors that gives you a 9% yield if you get it wrong. Given my long term perspective, I think that might be worthwhile considering. Even with the risk of short/med. term capital loss. All my existing EM holidings are showing positive and strong profit. With the exclusion of IAPD, that in purely capital terms (not taking div. income into consideration) is showing a 0.5% loss. You might be interested in knowing that I’ve been exploring Senior Secured Debt for sometime. Something usually not available either unless you have substantial funds. I’m considering investing initially small amounts on Wisealpha, which I’m also a shareholder of, just in case they are successful and syndicated SSD becomes a normal asset for SIPP’s and ISA’s. Having a 5-8% yields from household names and being above the shareholders if it all goes wrong has some attraction. As ever caution is required with alternative finance and my starting position will be in hundreds, not thousands. As a shareholder I do know what the average “portfolio” value is on the site. Which is interesting. I’m never sure why everyone is in such a rush and I expect it will take me 4-5 years to have enough invested to be even remotely worried by a sleepless night. By that time there’s a good chance it’s going be everday’sh, and I’ll have significant experience under my belt! Lol He’s an interesting fact for you: it was 60 years before 50,000,000 people had been on a plane flight, 4 years for 50,000,000 people to be us using Twitter and 19 days before PornHub had received 50,000,000 unique visitors. That’s got to tell us something about humanity don’t you think? Lol DL

PrefInvestor1 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again Hi Again All, Personally I am cautious about REITs ATM given the sentiments expressed in the following article:- U.S. – 23 Aug 18 'Safe as houses'? Brexit looms over UK real estate market Investors are ditching British real estate as Brexit uncertainty, rising interest rates and inflation erode house prices and office values in a market hurtling toward a potentially messy exit from the European Union. If commercial real estate values and rents were to fall significantly as a result of brexit then that will knock on directly to both REIT share prices and dividends. I hold AEWU, FCRE, RGL & WHR which in total amount to about 6.5% of my portfolio right now. If I can find other stocks yielding acceptable values I just might offload one or more of these in the coming months to reduce my exposure, certainly not thinking of buying any more however good the yield looks right now. More inclined to top up on stuff that’s getting badly beaten up right now eg EM ITs myself (AAIF, HFEL, JEMI) and commodities/miners (BRCI, BRWM, CYN). But each to their own….good luck with it anyway. ATB Pref

devonplay 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again That’s brave Grey, saying that I’m planning to do the same! Usual 1/4 position top up. How are you feeling about Asian stocks at the moment? I notice there was a big move down from UEM last week. I’m watching and IAPD. Big enough opportunity yet for you? DL

PrefInvestor1 08 Sep 2018

Topped up again A big dividend + a big capital loss = a value trap in my book. Not that I dont have some of those in my portfolio, notably VOD, but there you go. Falling market not helping anything. But REITS in particular are suffering it seems to me. I bought FCRE when I exited here at ~270, thats about a 1% down ATM - but nowhere near as volatile as NRR. Lower yield but I am happy with that. Retail focus will continue to be a negative ongoing I think. Who uses shops anymore?, we dont much - well apart from supermarkets that is. Amazon does it all and delivers. Good luck with it anyway. ATB Pref

Greyinvestor 07 Sep 2018

Topped up again NRR still taking a beating, shorts seem to be just below 6%. I suppose that I should have had more common sense, we all know that retail is taking a beating, and today would be a far better entry point. It would have saved me 20% of my capital. But…NRR still seems to be holding steady, income wise, and has bought quite cheaply. It’s retail premises are not really high street, and are mostly cheap. It’s the future that we have to worry about. All that I know is that I’m a target customer; popping out for coffee and cake, topping up our hard core shopping, and so on. I’m still Holding…

Greyinvestor 22 Aug 2018

Topped up again Topped up again today. I know, I’m completely nuts…

Greyinvestor 22 Aug 2018

Topped up again Only just noticed your reply, but I agree…only risk is falling asset value causing rise in gearing, just mathematics. Hopefully will be OK. I’m still a holder.

Guitarsolo 20 Aug 2018

Topped up again Morning Grey, Not sure you have called this one wrong (or if you have, so have I). I think this is just the market and the shorters looking for an easy win with crossover from peers that shouldn’t really be directly compared. Many of the really big boys in this sector trade at large discounts to NAV and I think those going short want to say that so should NRR (and RGL which I also hold). There is some logic to a discount because the REITs hold illiquid assets. But if the company is well run it should not need to liquidate those assets unless a favourable price can be achieved and the money better used elsewhere. NRR’s “community” model seems to be a good way to go in my view. It maintains a safe LTV ratio (under 40%) and has high occupancy at what they say are affordable prices for the tenants. Furthermore, many of the projects seem to have value enhancing aspects as well (e.g. tagging on a load of apartments here, or redeveloping pub car parks there etc). Like you, I don’t see this (yet) as a failing business model and the 8% income is very attractive and hopefully solid. No one likes to see the capital erode but provided the income remains I am happy to hold and wait for it to come back. This could drop to 220/230 but then the yield is approaching 10% and, if sustainable, would be outstanding! Guitarsolo - mid-sized holding in NRR

Greyinvestor 17 Aug 2018

Topped up again I have clearly called this one wrong. I’m now down about 20%, and I have a large holding. But I’m going nowhere, the dividend yield is irresistable until the the business model is proved to be flawed. Hold.

Ripley94 14 Aug 2018

Topped up again NRR… XXXXX Appears this is a Woodford pick. ( 1st June 2016 note )

MONKEYSO 01 Aug 2018

Still adding agree with you on PCA,BPM,AV and HFEL. also like HHI,VLE,VIN & others. lots of value around even in these uncertain times!