NewRiver REIT Live Discussion

Greyinvestor 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day Blimey, I think you’re fishing in deep waters… My prediction is that some time soon Woodford will be back in fashion. Growth is suddenly weakening, just as I buy into it. I’m fully invested and sitting tight. I have to admit that Aviva is looking good for divis. No obvious sign of the French story. Did you see CAKE today? Weird. A very seasoned boss, too. My WGB did OK today, but only OK. I’m concerned about China but still like Asia. I think that we’ve got big problems in the UK coming down the line, to do with debt and Brexit. We spend too much and save nothing, and Brexit will make it much worse. Have you noticed that the number of posters to this board has gone right down? The veg patch has had a tough year due to the drought, but it’s still feeding us. I just hope that the divis keep rolling on too. I had to dip into my SIPP to help family, but I haven’t drawn anything yet for me. Our cat is pushing up daisies at the bottom of the garden. I prefer the wildlife now. All the best, I hope that you are well too.

devonplay 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day RGL: [link] Director buys 30,000 shares. Not earth shattering, but a bit helpful. DL

devonplay 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day I had a quick look to see what the IC has been saying about RAV: Political posturing makes Raven Russia’s dollar-denominated income unpredictable. Analysts at house broker N+1 Singer are forecasting adjusted NAV per share at the December 2018 year-end of 71¢, down from 76.5¢ in 2017. At 42p, the shares are a long way down from our long-standing buy tip (64p, 1 May 2014). Holding these shares carries a high risk, but given that demand for warehouse space continues to outstrip supply in Moscow, there is still some attraction as a speculative play. A buy for the brave. despite the 27 per cent discount to net asset value (NAV) and a near-10 per cent prospective dividend yield. Raven is now looking for a more appreciative audience, with proposals to list the shares in Moscow and Johannesburg. - I seem to remember seeign an update saying they are now/just about to list in Moscow. I still prefer the Prefs, but it’s promising that demad is out stripping supply, but you can’t take that currency risk for granted. DL

devonplay 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day Greyinvestor: I’ve looked at VCTs and EIS schemes. I’m slightly put off by my age (64) and the fact that my income comes from savings, so bears a lower level of tax for now. I couldn’t find any independent performance tables to assess performance. Don’t know if you have? So, I usually only buy VCT’s when the whole market is distressed, it’s a secort that people only usually sell as a last resort, I only buy them 2nd hand, so in those periods I just stick with the big houses and choose the one’s with the biggest discount and yield. It’s really not very scientific! Only the subject of tax, I haven’t paid any for few years, mainly as a consequence of the sensible use of pension, ISA, personal allowance and SEIS/EIS. You do need a long time frame with start-ups, so I’m working towards a retirement date of 15 years time, although in every practical sense I’m retired and counting down to 55 Just a few more years before I can get my hands on my pension! lol. I’m investing in indivdual companes, so table I have looked at. I do seem to remember that Crowdcube, Seedrs etc suggest the average diversified portfolio achieves an annual 27% when you take the tax releif into consideration. I’d take that with a big pinch of salt! I’m still showing a health profit on AV and I still retain some FPEO. I’ve thought them rich for ages. EAT has started to get more interesting I think. RAV, I think was tipped a couple of weeks ago by the Investors Chronicle. I prefer the Prefs over the common stock. I’m well spread, over some might say, but I like the option of being able to invest div’s in to the underperformers on a monthly basis. So far, that strategy has worked for me. How’s the allotment getting along?

Greyinvestor 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day Fine thanks. I’ve looked at VCTs and EIS schemes. I’m slightly put off by my age (64) and the fact that my income comes from savings, so bears a lower level of tax for now. I couldn’t find any independent performance tables to assess performance. Don’t know if you have? I did look at RGL a while ago, but the divi was then uncovered (as it is now with PCA). I’m a bit queasy about PCA, in which I have a pretty huge holding. All change at AV. I dumped most of mine. There is this really odd story about a deal in France which may cause a huge liability. Could never get to the bottom of it. I did have FPEO, but they got a bit expensive. I still like BPM a lot. It’s nice to see a bit of value about, at last. I’ve never bought a preference share. You do dig up some interesting stuff (RAVP). EAT is a bit all over the place. Very pleased with my RQIH; bouncing around a bit but looking good… I keep looking for something that is good for the environment. Not at all easy to find. Keep at it. I’ve still got massive exposure to a very narrow range of stuff. Some of the old stagers like KIT are not doing well just now. All the best, Grey.

devonplay 09 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day Hi Grey, hope you are well? I’m just thinking about where to invest this months div’s. I’ve taken up my rights for Elementis rights issue, had a couple of pre-emption rights (at least they come long with EIS relief) and I did think about IAPD top-up, but not yet. I’ve had a good month of div’s, so I guess a REIT for me (PCA), something HYP’sh (High Yield Portfolio) for my wife (AV or VOD or HSBA) and an outsider: I like the look of RAVP at the moment. I haven’t looked at performance of my equity portfolio in detail, it’s of course down over the last few weeks, but my SEIS/EIS stuff has been doing really well. Couple have just done “A” rounds and I’m almost X10 over my intial investment. There’s a long way to go! P2P is giving me a little discomfort at the moment, over all it’s not bombing, it’s making me feel a little edgy, but I haven’t lost any money. I did but some PEYS for my wife, which is showing a 8.6 capital profit + plus any income. I have an existing FPEO holding and I see I have a notice saying there’s been a Director buy. I havent read it yet. Not quite PE, but I also note a different Director of VSL appears to have made a large purchase today. Another one for me to read later. I’m also tempted by REC at the moment! So many options LOL. Are you also in RGL? It’s taken my some time to build up a diverse portfolio that’s chucking out monthly income. Overall, I’m much happier making monthly purchases that single large buys. It just works out for me better. I get a bit cavalier making “one off’s”! Odd isn’t it, I spend more time working through a £2k top-up, than saying investing £10k as a single trade! DL

Greyinvestor 09 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day Great post Devon, I didn’t get it by email (not sure why), so haven’t seen it before. I’m now wishing that I’d stayed in cash. I’m down 7% on my ‘spending the divis’ portfolio, and 1% on my pension, in the calendar year. Mostly it’s REITs, housebuilders, and widening discounts on investment trusts. But I’m happy to ride it out. There is something very weird about this site, I can’t now see your post. Oh well. Good luck with the cat. I just had a break in West Wales. Had to give up though; every walk came to a vertiginous drop, which the wife can stand but I can’t. Yes, Pubs, Business Rates, Brexit, the Internet, NRR is copping the lot. But somehow I still believe in it. I’m sitting, watching and having the huge dividend. I’ve piled up some private equity in my pension fund; HVPE, PIN BPM, NAS, PEYS and (not happy with) MVI. I’ll see how it turns out. All the best, Grey.

devonplay 28 Sep 2018

A presentation for analysts Notice of Half Year Results NewRiver will announce its Half Year Results for the 6 months ending 30 September 2018 on Wednesday 21 November 2018. A presentation for analysts will be held at 9.30am on the day of results at the offices of Eversheds Sutherland, 1 Wood St, London EC2V 7WS. The presentation will be webcast live and available at: [link] Anyone going to watch the webcast? DL

devonplay 22 Sep 2018

Capital Markets Day Hi Grey, I haven’t looked at the presentation yet. I’ve taken a little holiday and rather than put the cat in boarding I brought him along. He’s a good traveler, but unfortunately he keeps waking up at 3 am when he senses another feline. Besides that and the coast walks I’m frankly exhausted. I’ll be pleased to get home for a rest! So, I’ve been a bit behind for the month. I still like the strategy and I can see how it could work. I see one of there sites with a large pub they’ve acquired and then put a Co-op in the carpark. Is it’s always busy. The landlord has the place open for coffee in the day, so it’s starting to be come a hub for the community. My local boozer is up for sales. Bought a few years ago, it’s back on the market for twice the price. You would get a substantial number of houses on the plot once you’ve got past “community use” restrictions. I agree about the uncertainty, but if we don’t get a post Brexit dip or a soft Brecit property could be a good place to be. If it’s the alternative our EM positions will help with soft sterling. With this yield I’d be happy to wait it and see. Overall I’m 8% down on half the position I want. You might ask , why I’m typing this at 8am given my 3am morning call. Well, some Devonshire old boy called me at 7am to see how the holiday was going…apparently that’s half the day gone. Oh, and that cats gone back to sleep and he’s snoring loudly at the bottom of the bed. DL

Greyinvestor 22 Sep 2018

Capital Markets Day Had a look at the presentation. Not sure that I believe in ‘wet’ pubs at all, or the morality of tied houses. But…the yields look surprisingly good, there is some added development value…it’s different to shopping centres. I can’t complain about that. I’m less certain how pubs will do in a Brexit induced recession. None of this stuff changes my mind. I have a really hefty NRR stake, sitting on a big loss, but I’m not selling. I bought it as an annuity; a better rental stream than I could get from real property. I just wish that I was buying now. The yield is huge. What about the threat to retail? Yes, it is undoubtedly there, and business rates are a horrendous problem. But edge of town stuff with good parking still has some potential for cheap hotels, gyms, surgeries and so on. If the economy can eke out some growth, I think it will survive. I suspect that poorer Brits who staycation may use local stuff more. The shorters are still in, with their stakes rising gently. On other BBs there is a lot of chatter about Woodford being a forced seller, and he is the biggest shareholder in NRR. Some people think that shorters are betting against him. As a result I can’t see the share price rising. Grr…

devonplay 20 Sep 2018

Capital Markets Day [link] It will be interesting if there an up move following this. There often is. DL

devonplay 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again Thanks @MONKEYSO I hadn’t checked todays ex-div’s, but I know it was sometime soon. Cheers DL

MONKEYSO 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again RGL are ex div today 1.85p

devonplay 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again I understand your view on NRR, I just rate the management team, the strategy: particularly the pub and local store part. I drive pass one from time to time (it’s a shame they couldn’t also get the petrol station) and their development has energized the pub and local area. I hope the pub can build on that and run some other community based services outside opening hours. I’m around 50% of a normal holding , it’s going to be a rocky ride for some time, I guess the short term doesn’t worry me too much. DL

PrefInvestor1 13 Sep 2018

Topped up again Hi @devonplay, Yes Ive seen that, RGL shares jumped up from 95 to close to 100p that day. NAV ~113 looking good. As I said in an earlier post I am holding my REITs for now, but I dont like NRR because of it retail focus and its extreme volatility. ATB Pref