NewRiver REIT Live Discussion

PrefInvestor1 28 Dec 2018

Topped up again Hi @devonplay, Hope you are well and not too damaged by all of the negative market action. REITs in particular doing badly due to brexit I suspect plus poor retail performance and fears over commercial property pricing ?. NRR at 195 yesterday and RGL at 91.9, both way down on prices hitherto. Sold all my REITs a while back as I thought that they might suffer. ATB Pref

Guitarsolo 05 Dec 2018

FY Results Well this is really starting to test the nerves. I feared market sentiment against landlords would drive this down to 220-230p but now that it has actually got there, what’s next? As far as I can tell/research, the properties that NRR owns are pretty good. Footfall is falling but not as much as elsewhere. They claim their rents are affordable to tenants (would like to know what they say!) and their occupancy is high. NRR has little exposure to the big department stores and recent retail failures. Most people seem to rate the “community” approach as being the way to go. And most new projects seem to have a value-enhancing aspect such as building new residential units, car parks etc. That’s the positive spin I suppose. The downside is the risk that funds from operations will not cover the debt or the divi, with the latter being at risk of a cut. NRR’s management come across well. So why is this being hammered so much? Is there a threat to the divi? Guitarsolo

devonplay 23 Nov 2018

Half year results out Yes, there should be an opportunity to create better income. Ive held CLDN for some years, it’s a good solid core holding. I really think I might to spend some money at some point, at the moment I use free stuff or open source. I haven’t really looked at RLE, so I’ll give it a look over. Good luck with it.

Greyinvestor 23 Nov 2018

Half year results out Good news out of PCA today, I think. Just made a first purchase of RLE. I’m a glutton for punishment. I like CLDN, but I don’t hold any. I’m still based upon a massive Excel spreadsheet plus I subscribe to Stockopedia. It hasn’t done me much good but it does help me think more clearly. Puts me off some dogs…

devonplay 22 Nov 2018

Half year results out Greyinvestor: Good results out of PEY this Agreed, and CLDN. I like CLDN this morning. Follow me? No, you make much more intelligent analysis than me, I’m just a “gut” feeling merchant. I did add some more RAVP last month. I like HFEL and JEMI, but haven’t bought any on the recent correction. Just a portfolio allocation thing. If I had space I would of done. On the subject of long holding, I show my portfolio return based on purchase price, excluding income. I’m thinking of rebasing and start recording with income included. I just feel that would give me a better idea and help with capital allocation down the line. I need to work on that stuff, maybe something more than a free basic portfolio manager might be the next step for me. I just hate spending money on research etc. DL

Greyinvestor 22 Nov 2018

Half year results out I agree re LLOY, less so with the others (VOD balance sheet is terrible). Good results out of PEY this morning. I wait for the Wyevale seed sale after August bank holiday; 50p per packet. I get about 50! You’ve bought better than me, equity wise. I should follow you. Just about to defrost the car - (4C) outside… I agree re overseas, my backbone holdings are still HFEL and AAIF HFEL now paying about 20% of first purchase price in divis! Mind you it was in 1998. Held for 20 years.

devonplay 22 Nov 2018

Half year results out Morning Grey, I’ve been enjoying the cold weather. Mainly as the local garden center is quiet on days like this, except for the cafe, and I get my pick of the “seasonal deals”. Several purchases for my wildlife garden made. So, far the saving is just over £55 quid. The Chokeberry bushes are still in their pots, but already a hit with the balckbirds! I’m still in the money on EAT and PCA just a couple of percent down, 2%. I have cash, but I haven’t been putting it to work here, just reinvesting dividends after I’ve taken out some house keeping money. Buy list are tough, but I’m looking at adding to CNA, VOD, LLOY next month. I’m expecting a number of cash calls, pre-emption rights, during December, so that could be a limiting factor. Although I might use any smaller amounts for ETF top ups. At the moment I prefer verseas income, but I can help feeling there’s value in CNA, VOD, LLOY, I see CNA’s just released a trading update. That’s on my list of reading this morning.

Greyinvestor 22 Nov 2018

Half year results out Hi Devon, it’s a cold and frosty morning this morning. 10C in my kitchen when I went down for my morning brew. And I’m out in the woods today. Brrr… I’ve got 5% of my worldly wealth in NRR, and 5% in PCA. Both are down heavily (NRR about 25%), so I’m having a poor year. EAT down heavily too, but I’ve got a smaller holding. In every case the biggest contributor is widening discounts. I think that all of them are a bit suspect, but the discounts compensate for that. PCA puts out results next week. I think their RT Warren acquisition was at the top of the market; they are now trying to shift the houses at a discount. I would guess that now is probably a reasonable entry point. I just went in far too early. I’ve not got anything good on my buy list just now. My cash levels are low anyway. This will be a bad year for me, the first down year since 2007. There seems to be almost no liquidity around these days. It’s worryingly difficult to sell stuff if you want to, which is a concern. I’ll keep slogging away, re-investing divis when I can. All the best…

devonplay 21 Nov 2018

Half year results out Hi Grey, I thought the report today was reasonably update, given the market conditions. I think you are correct about the “one off” and your more general note about the difficulty of making sense of them. I don’t think the dividend was covered last year either from memory. In their defence it’s still a strategy developing and there could be plenty of downstream opportunities with pub portfolio and “local” foot print they are building. Doing that “development” piece and returning a high dividend yield isn’t an easy trick to pull off, but it is a solid management team an plenty of experience. I don’t think I have as high portfolio percentage as you in this, in fact I only have 50% of the target holding I want. I’m remaining for the moment and reinvesting the dividend in similarly high yielders. I last purchased EAT from my dividend income. I’m down a couple of percent. The stock was down 21% from its 22 month high when I added. I’m not rushing to add any more NRR for the time being, I’m preferring to add to my overseas income. I’ve been adding small amounts, via WiseAlpha, in SSD c7% yield. I also bought some/ topped up Palace Capital last month. I remember that also being one of your holdings? DL

Greyinvestor 21 Nov 2018

Half year results out Unless anyone is wiser than me, as far as I can tell FFO is down because of the lack of ‘one off’ benefits, which existed last year, plus additional one off acquisition expenses. So actually cover was below 100% last year, on a normalised basis. Or am I wrong?

Greyinvestor 21 Nov 2018

Half year results out I did listen to the results presentation, and I’m not sure that it helped to shed any serious light on the uncovered dividend. It did, however, show how the company can pull itself back to just about covering it. I can’t help feeling that the company is scrabbling to support the divi. It says that it wishes to maintain and gently increase it, which is great as long as it is affordable. Depreciation is incredibly low, and shop rents are under presssure. Pubs, on the other hand, are going well. Development profits and rents are coming in, but slowly. In summary, I don’t see any capital growth here and the pressure is on the downside. However there is an enormous dividend. It should be possible, with a lot of hard work, to increase the dividend in line with inflation. So for me this is a somewhat risky bond substitute; the highest yield in town. If the management read this; please be simpler and more open in your results presentations. Even the experts are struggling to understand these numbers. Take a look at how Hansteen do it.

Greyinvestor 21 Nov 2018

Half year results out Half year results out today. Quite heavy going. FFO £25.3m v £26.5m. Reasonable excuses, but still down. NAV 283p v 292p. Disappointing but predictable result of incredibly tough market plus uncovered dividend. Gearing adds to your downside. Q3 divi +3% at 5.4p, but cover is only 77% not 95%. I’ve yet to fully understand why. I’m not sure that I accept the explanation given. Your thoughts appreciated. Will continue to read. This is the bit of the results that I like least of all. Like for like income (0.5%). Not too bad. LTV 35% v 28%. Again rather difficult to understand; balance sheet looks different. I’ve been a real NRR supporter up until now but I’m starting to struggle with their numbers and explanations. I don’t find them anything like as easy to read as HSTN results. Overall rather uninspiring but probably trading around fair value. I’ve taken a really big hit, due to the size of my holding.

Ripley94 15 Nov 2018

FY Results Hi You still in this one soi … i was considering it today .

Guitarsolo 01 Nov 2018

Shopping Centres Interesting article on the BBC site today: [link] Growing evidence that the continual fall/contraction of major retailers is wreaking havoc with shopping centre owners. No mention of any of NRR’s centres on the “failing list” as far as I can see and the article states that it is mostly US private equity firms who are getting burnt. The article does mention the Whitefriars shopping centre in Canterbury recently taken back into full ownership by the local council - but doesn’t mention that NRR will be running it for a fee! We all know that retail is suffering and landlords are at risk of losing tenants or CVAs. However, if the weaker shopping centres are culled then it may coincidentally provide a boost for the better ones where footfall increases because the public has fewer centres to choose between and that also draws the anchor retailers towards those more successful centres. A classic case of the good will get better and the poorer will fall by the wayside. As investors we must be discerning and top-quality management will never be more important than right now. Those that get it right will do well, the others will not survive. So time to keep a very close eye on NRR’s management and updates. I’m looking for (in no particular order): (i) Capital and debt control. Keep LTV well below 40%. (ii) Maintain the community hub approach. The article suggests this is a successful approach with the attendant “use it or lose it”. Centres need entertainment/ eating as well as retail. (iii) Keep rents affordable. An empty space benefits no one. (iv) But try to have long-term and gently rising rents! (v) Also try to have “added-value” for the site (e.g. a new supermarket, residential developments). (vi) Keep up the diversity into fee-based centre management as this reduces capital risk. For the moment, I am continuing to hold NRR (sitting on a loss but the dividends have softened the blow). This is all about the management I think. Guitarsolo

devonplay 10 Oct 2018

Capital Markets Day I’m afraid my Main Coone is an indoors cat. He used to be a free roaming soul, but his personality put a stop to that. He hates other cats and is boisterous when playing with humans. An ASBO later he ended up as the animal sanctuary”s longest resident and was on his way to oblivion. Until I met him. Our vet still won’t trim his claws, but I’ve really never had much trouble with him…if you discount the bruised shoulder that needed 2 weeks to disappear or the scar I’ve got from a surprise night attack. I’ve got a wildlife garden, I wouldn’t have if he got out there… We are best of pals now, he’s even got used to me watching Bloomberg and shouting at Corbyn when he comes on the box. He’s a big cat. Sleeps in a dog bed and has a dogs kennel to retreat from the world. Sometimes he looks very small and cat like, other times he’s frankly trouble. Loves biting legs, especially if your busy in the bathroom. I say no more.