PrefInvestor1
22 May 2018
Re: PCA - devonplay Hi Devon,Yes I have a bit if a thing about not buying at today’s price. I wish that I could buy at 330 but I think that’s too much of a stretch. I look at the charts and try to take a view on a realistic target and set my buy limit there, in this case I have chosen 340. But then there is little use in picking a target that it’s never ever going to reach IMHO.Yes VOD has bounced well this week, I hope it continues. I have enough of them really and while I would have averaged down, and still might, my preference would be to invest elsewhere. I am trying to avoid having big holdings in any one stock, as big holdings make for big losses if things go wrong - big profits too of course if things go well.ATBPref
devonplay
22 May 2018
Re: PCA - soi I bought some at 330. OK value round there.I picked up more VOD last week, looking forward to the 7th, see what that brings us. Patience isn’t only a virtue, it’s also a good investment strategy. With all the talk about a bear market in the next 6-12 months diligence and patience is going to be even more critical. DL - spent his morning considering SREI I think there t am has shown patience, diligence and control. They’ve come along way.
PrefInvestor1
22 May 2018
Re: PCA - soi Hi soi,Ah thats interesting. Ive set a buy limit order at an optimistic 340. Going to wait and see what happens for a bit.Let a few hundred quid get away here today by selling at 270. But thats how it goes...ATBPref
soi
22 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance - Kool Keith Hi PrefI`ve had PCA on a watch list for a while, fancy buying a few at some time.Nothing in yet though.ATBsoi
PrefInvestor1
22 May 2018
Nice Bounce Today Hi All,Presumably a reaction to yesterday’s RNS or maybe in expectation of a good set of results on the 24/5?. If the latter then it might take the edge off any SP movement when the results come out, but who knows.For myself none of this has fundamentally changed my view on this stock, which is that it is too volatile and too focussed on retail. I might regret exiting if it jumps to 320 or something, but right now I’m not that bothered. GLA HoldersPref
TX2
22 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance - Kool Keith Most people are probably aware but when looking at property companies & REITS it is important to remember that they present their profit figures in a different way from other companies.Basically accounting rules require them to include property revaluations of their investment portfolios before arriving at their P&L figure.If their portfolio has been valued upwards by say £20m this has to be added to net income;or if valued downwards has to be deducted.Property held for trading,which mainly applies to non REIT property companies does not need to be revalued.The reason I am mentioning this is that if potential investors are buying a property company or REIT mainly for dividend income you need to look further than the headline profit figure and look for the net on going rental income that is left after deduction of all costs,interest etc.This may well be a very different figure than the actual profit recorded but it is this figure that will pay a sustainable dividend.
PrefInvestor1
22 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance - Kool Keith Hi Again KK,Ive been busily churning through a list of about 50 REITs that i downloaded from my broker checking their chart patterns and yields to identify possible candidates for a more detailed investigation.I quite like the look of PCA which is not on that list. Looks like a commercial property company with a similar operating model to a REIT without actually being one. Thats fine with me as long as the divi is maintained, i can actually see some advantages in that. Good discount to NAV and i like the diversified portfolio, good mix of industrial, offices, leisure and retail in there - unlike NRR. Share price a tad volatile though. Might give it a go if I can get in at the right price.ATBPref
sound money
21 May 2018
Caution Overdone "The portfolio totals 8 million sq. ft. with over 2,000 occupiers, an annual footfall of 150 million and a retail occupancy rate of 97 per cent. Visit www.nrr.co.uk for further information."This from today's RNS. Confirms at least occupancy is holding up.RNS also reminds of the specialised portfolio. Market has got this wrong.At the moment all retail is being written off because of the Internet. Convenience stores are on the up a NRR strength. "Go to shopping Malls" still have a future, retail therapy is not dead, NRR are in the right place. Pubs, great development idea.NRR'S low rent model is not losing its demand.M
Kool Keith
21 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance - Kool Keith I'm well thank you Pref, just been Centre Parcs for the weekend so need to be doing well with some share selections Very Happy with BBOX and understand your thinking may have missed the boat (I don't know). I'm still with CGI (thank you) up 4% + 1 dividend received so far.Good luck to holders of NRR (I'm not 1) and Pref I'll keeping following your posts and luck forward to seeing you pop up on other boards that may spark an interest.
Gooffy
21 May 2018
pubs A lot closing and being developed into flats or houses usually have large amounts of land.Perhaps that is the plan.
PrefInvestor1
20 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance - Kool Keith Hi KK,Good to hear from you, hope you are well.Took a look at BBOX as you suggested. Looks like you have probably done really well there if youve been in it from the start. But for me the 4.2% yield is too low and i dont like buying stocks that have done really well, as i find thst they have a tendency to NOT do well therafter !. No specific criticism of BBOX intended, just my gut feeling about stocks that have just gone straight up the way that has.I take a look at CGI occasionally too, are you still buying there ?. Looks to be doing well again, share price back up at 1420. But again yield just too low for my new portfolio.ATBPref
Kool Keith
20 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance Hi Pref, have you looked at BBox? I've been in from the placing so yielding pretty good from that entry point but currently around 4.2% so is less than your target but they do count Amazon as one of their tenants.Sorry for short post, doing on my phone as currently away.
PrefInvestor1
20 May 2018
Re: REIT Performance Hi All,From my experience holding a variety of REITs over the last few years, I have formed an expectation that they should perform as follows:-1. That their share price should be pretty stable and typically be within ~5% or so of the purchase price.2. They should deliver a substantial yield, at least 5.5% and likely more.3. Their NAV should progress upward fairly slowly due primarily to the increasing value of their property portfolio. I suspect that this is due in large part to the requirement to distribute 90% of their profits to shareholders leaving limited room to increase NAV through operating profits.I have always had a problem with NRR due to its failure to comply with point 1 of my model. To me it seems much too volatile, and for the last year not in a good way !.I intend to go looking for an alternative REIT that does comply with my model, even if it does yield a bit less.ATBPref
devonplay
20 May 2018
Re: REIT Valuations / Share Prices "LTV of 25% (based on September 2017 valuations) and over £200m of undrawn credit facilities presents firepower to exploit opportunities in our marketplace"- 18 Jan 2018You'd hope, if the pub purchase rumour it true, they are using that firepower to exploit an good opportunity.I think it's possible they could generate 8% from pubs and this certianly looks like it's a community-focused portfolio of boozers. I like the community focused strategy.- Our local pub has just gone up for sale. Developer bough it a short time ago for £300k, the landlord wants out and it's back on the market for £500k +. I reckon you could put in excess of £1m of housing on the site. I can't ever see anyone running it as a pub again.The last purchase gave them a blended income of 9%.All looks good to me, but I wouldn't be surprised if they come back and tap the market for more cash sooner rather than later.£100m for the pubs, £26m for the retail parks and what other development cost for Basingstoke.Looking forward to that update,DL
Greyinvestor
20 May 2018
Re: REIT Valuations / Share Prices NRR latest NAV is £2.97, I think, so a 10% discount. Yes, Intu is a much bigger discount but by some measures is more geared.The divi is uncovered, but that is largely due to cash sitting on the balance sheet. Once the cash is spent and gearing added to match it, the divi should be covered.I do agree that the price is unlikely to exceed £3 for a while.My thought process is a bit different to most. The yield on Gilts for anything up to 50 years is about 1.7% ie below the rate of inflation. So where are you supposed to get a decent yield from? It has to be equities of some sort. So high yielding equities are great, as long as the dividend is reasonably secure.My view of all property is the same; look for the maximum gap between the cost of money and the return that you get. Will the pubs kick out 8% plus?
