LK Hyman
04 Mar 2017
Re: nichols delivers again Bill,"it's still comfortably my biggest holding."You done good, m8. I came across Vimto regularly when I worked in Saudi Arabia many years ago and wish I'd piled into Nichols then. Say what you like about the sons of the desert - once they develop a liking for summat they are incredibly loyal to it, and them Saudis do love their Vimto. Good to see that them Africans like it too, though not sure how well fixed the Guinea lads and Sudan homeboys are for klebbies." the profile is not too different from the likes of large-cap consumer 'peers' Diageo, Unilever, Reckitts"You're probably right. While one might worry a bit about the sugar content of Nichols' drinks it's good to see that the "no added sugar" proportion of total sales is marching steadily upwards.What struck me about the latest results is the enthusiasm shown by the CEO for the biznay, and the fact that they are clearly clever about using social media, including the trendy Snapchat thingy, to access the yoof market.It's too dear for me to get in now, especially with such a high proportion of sales being in Blighty where growth is hard to envisage, but I shall follow developments with interest.So that's all right.LKH on the flybridge
Bill1703
04 Mar 2017
Re: nichols delivers again "just had time to read the prelims to 31/12/17 and a splendid read they are too.... clearly a well managed business and a solid hold for me"Valeite - indeed, couldn't agree more!It is the consistency of the delivery which impresses most.... sales up 7%, EBIT up 9%, EPS up 10%, DPS up 15%. Solid sales growth - and broadly based across pretty much all segments and geographies - translating to something better in profits growth with a bit of positive operational gearing. Not so far from the old 'Tobacco model' which historically has delivered such consistent returns for investors there - only a bit better all round.Valuation update: P/E 26x actual (c.24x forward), 19x EV/EBITDA, FCF yield just under 3%, divi yield 1.7% (c.1.9% forward - possibly better), with the divi very nicely covered (broadly 2x) by both FCF and earnings. While undoubtedly at the high end of the (reasonable) market range on most metrics, the profile is not too different from the likes of large-cap consumer 'peers' Diageo, Unilever, Reckitts, etc - so I see it as perfectly sustainable as long as this consistency of performance continues, as it should be able to at least match the large caps on this going forward.One interesting quirk in the statement - the net cash balance continues to grow very nicely (up to £40m), yet not a mention of this at all? One of these days they are going to have to consider what to do with this... In the meantime, the balance sheet and indeed all financials are admirably and unusually clean.I'll probably take another slice off in due course - it's still comfortably my biggest holding. But I am not seeing any rush on this in the wake of these sort of figures.
valeite
04 Mar 2017
nichols delivers again just had time to read the prelims to 31/12/17 and a splendid read they are too .vimto increases its popularity ......the shift to sugar free is going well/ aquisition a sucess/ slight margin increase/keeping cost increases under control / confident divi increase.....clearly a well managed business and a solid hold for me
valeite
11 Jan 2017
wise to top slice numis have today lowered target price to £13.65
Bill1703
10 Jan 2017
Re: trading update "really pleased to see our business trading robustly in a difficult market .nice to see the vimto brand is gaining in popularity .a solid hold for me with a nice bit of divi "Yes, continuing solid delivery, sales up over 7% - which should translate to something slightly better for EPS and DPS growth, in line with current forecasts.But not quite the explosive growth of years gone by... I sold a tranche of shares yesterday, as previously anticipated, but retain a pretty sizable holding. The (increasingly long) track record of consistent delivery deserves a high rating, and indeed my continuing support, but it's still a rating (25x current P/E, 20x EV/EBITDA, forecast yield just 1.7%) which remains vulnerable to any hint of the momentum running out of steam. A HOLD at best for me...
valeite
10 Jan 2017
trading update really pleased to see our business trading robustly in a difficult market .nice to see the vimto brand is gaining in popularity .a solid hold for me with a nice bit of divi
PIE-EATER
06 Jan 2017
Re: buy rating from..... Thanks Bill1703.....had forgotten trading update. Like you I like to top slice holdings when they are getting disproportionately large. Was lucky?? with last one when sold GBG at 300p and subsequently plummeted to 240ish......balance now recovering in a fairly steady way. Recycled profits into ZYT which had eye on for a while and which currently up 10% (you will note these are AIM and potential BPR so try and spread risks within subset of ISA account)GLAPE
Bill1703
05 Jan 2017
Re: buy rating from..... "Beginning to get a bit of vertigo unless someone can provide additional tangible positives?"Trading update next Tuesday, 10th Jan.I agree on vertigo - at some point the lofty valuation has to look exposed. Growth metrics remain consistently good hitherto, but no longer stellar. I am thinking of taking another slice off - it's been a wonderful performer for me over a long period, I have sold tranches all the way up and they've always carried on up to ever greater heights... but this pattern has to break, sooner or later.Even after these sales, it's still my biggest single-stock position, and I intend to retain a pretty big holding...
oldjoe1
04 Jan 2017
NICL, chart Breakout, 10 year High........ NICL Nicholls..........breakout from trading range and momentum looks strong. Not cheap on fundies but many arent at the moment. 10 year high.[link] Plc engages in the production and trade of beverage products.The company engages in soft drink sales.It operates under the following brands: vimto, levi roots, sunkist, and panda.The company operates through two segments: Still and Carbonate.<b><u>Valuation 2016e 2017e</u></b>P/E ratio (Price / EPS) 25,3x 24,2xCapitalization / Revenue 5,19x 5,02xEV / Revenue 5,20x 5,03xEV / EBITDA 19,9x 18,9xYield (DPS / Price) 1,68% 1,80%Price to book (Price / BVPS) 7,02x 6,01x
PIE-EATER
04 Jan 2017
Re: buy rating from..... Sorry meant to say fairly constant trajectory since Trump elected just a couple of months ago....
PIE-EATER
04 Jan 2017
Re: buy rating from..... Already smashed through target price and up 30%+ since Brexit on a fairly constant trajectory. Beginning to get a bit of vertigo unless someone can provide additional tangible positives?Thanks in advancePE
valeite
04 Aug 2016
buy rating from..... berenberg says buy £15.25 target price
mcescher
27 Mar 2016
Made a report comparing NICL / BVIC This infographic compares Nichols and Britvic, they have details on valuation and reasonable AIM coverage which I found quite good. [link]
pharmaspecialist
17 Mar 2016
Re: how bizzare Yes, I think bizarre is the right word as the great majority of sweet fizzy drinks on offer in supermarkets are already sugar free. If the Chancellor wanted a genuinely unhealthy target he should have taxed chocolate based confectionary such as Mars bars as they contain alot of fat as well. Sugary drinks are fat free. If a TV chef (Jamie Oliver) advises a politician about science related health matters, this is the ridiculous result. I think I had better stock up on Vimto.
valeite
17 Mar 2016
how bizzare soft drinks business has made enormous progress in reducing sugar content and this is the reward .the press are reporting the cost of a canned drink will rise to perhaps 70 p .well i get my vimto from home bargains for 25 p .off topic ,i bought some walkers low salt crisps from home bargains (reduced in price because they tasted rubbish ) but remembered my childhood with little blue bags of salt .so i added some salt and they tasted fine .
