limited edition
11 Feb 2018
Re: Nationalisation Threat The labour party should start with the Pedo BBC and privatize the disgusting jimmy Seville worshiping BBC. And what of the tory DUP paramilitary bailing out of disgraced carillon, why should tax payers bail out the carrillion. Labour are right on to do so, I've seen enough of TORY incompetent, T .may boris johnson buffoons of the highest order. [link]
Hardboy
11 Feb 2018
Re: Nationalisation Threat I caught the end of his interview on Sky News; and he's still adamant that privatising the utilities would not cost the tax payer a penny. Give the shareholders bonds, the profits made by the utility companies would pay for the interest on the bonds and there'd be a lot more profits too. That of course assumes the utility companies would make the same level of profits (which historically you'd question) and there is of course the termination value of the bonds which someone has to pay. "I suspect that they would probably send their own auditors in to do a valuation" which would be a significant cost, as you the civil servants managing the transition, and the MPs debating the issue, so who pay for those?
72_fastback
11 Feb 2018
Re: Nationalisation Threat That is how I have seen it reported - issue gilts to the "value" of the the company being nationalised. Nobody else is going to want gilts!I did some research in the National Archives about the steel industry being nationalised after WW2. At that time, Labour considered land, stock, plant & machinery to carry a value of...zero.In the Telegraph today there is a report of Uncle Jeremy specifically mentioning talking the national grid back into public ownership - first time I have seen that.Privatisation may not have been perfect, but those 2 clowns running Labour are not the answer.I suppose we can console ourselves (as investors) that if they get into office we won't have any wealth left for them to confiscate!
PrefInvestor1
11 Feb 2018
Nationalisation Threat Hi All,Just saw this article about Labours John McDonalds nationalisation plans on the BBC website today:-[link] article doesn’t talk about how a labour government would put a value on these companies for the purpose of paying compensation to shareholders, but I’m guessing that they wouldn’t accept the companies current market valuations. I suspect that they would probably send their own auditors in to do a valuation (likely on a “fire sale” basis !). Then you’d get issued some nice government bonds (probably with a juicy low rate coupon) to replace your shares based on that valuation. Pure speculation I know but that’s what I suspect would happen. Seems to stack up with the article.Sound good ?. No I didn’t think so. It’s just daylight robbery really isn’t it.Of course the results would still hugely increase government debt, create what would doubtless become a huge and inefficient bureaucracy that would drive bills through the roof while reducing service levels and investment. Unfettered union operations would have their well known “benefits”. In fact the whole scheme would deliver all of the well known disadvantages of a public rather than a private sector operation. But it does sound to me like it might just be do-able, and the ideologically obsessed labour leadership would I think go for it should they get elected. Better hope that doesn’t happen…!!.Clearly there are many who think that labour will never get in, or even if they did will be unable to implement their plans. I really hope you are right, but personally I shall continue to avoid these blighted stocks until such time as this threat has passed.Of course you could probably equally well argue that the whole stock market would be stuffed if labour got in, and so you are no worse of in these stocks than anywhere else. I confess that my plan had been to sell up completely if there was any sign of a general election being called. Be a bad time to do it right now with a 10% correction upon us, but I feel sure that a labour government with JC at the helm would result in further downside even so.ATBPref
Jimi Marshall
08 Feb 2018
Why invest in the UK? As I have been indicating for a few months now, NG. is and has been and will be slowly but surely investing away from the UK to the USA.The UK economy has been declining for a few years and will continue to do so, look at Forex, they seldom get it wrong. NG. has sold 61% of it's UK gas biz and will sell another 16% in the short term. IMO sell the lot and get out! NG. will only invest what it is legally obliged to in UK assets. Currently NG. UK assets are worth more than the current proportionate SP is valuing them. It appears that the UK Gov have mishandled the economy and to retrieve some funds, have put pressure on all the regulators to squeeze the life out of all contractors, Carillion?Ofgem are asking for a reduction in cost for the Hinkley Point connection without considering the financial risks to the contractor (why would they!).NG. may walk away (as all options are open) and let someone else do it, if they will take the risk on?NG. biz is made up of 55% of USA assets and growing.IMO 65% before the next election and IMO the share capital will be split before then. If Corbyn gets in 4 years? And if he gets a majority rule? And if his majority proposal succeeds? To firstly nationalise BR? Then all the utilities? Then NG.?It appears that the market believes that NG. will be nationalised in plus 5 years from now and has currently valued NG. at a 5 year low?The NG. biz - The USA commands a yield of at least 9%, the UK between 4-6%.The USA market seems to receive more biz updates from NG./NGG as this is where it's focus is.[link] people here do not believe that NG. and spreadsheet JP did not carry out a financial risk assessment, way before the Brexit vote?Why invest in the UK?GLA
ookyfly
08 Feb 2018
Re: Where is LK Hyman? Posters do disappear. Tasmanian Devil was a scabrous, nasty fellow. But if approached right he could be insightful.
ookyfly
08 Feb 2018
Re: Where is LK Hyman? Last known P of C... Very much agree. Hope he's not RIP.
aspace
07 Feb 2018
Re: Sold out Yes Marktime I did sell out on a bad day, which is not usually my buy-and-hold style. I had sold most of NG a couple of months back (and posted it on here) after deciding the political risk was too great. I am sore because I use an analytical approach to investing under which NG ticked all the boxes. The only other company to do so was Berkshire Hathaway. That made NG special so I bought heavily in recent years. Corbyn political risk blindsided me completely. Hence I have reluctantly sold all my beloved NG. Not only sad for me but for everyone invested in this great company. Meanwhile I have been progressively moving investments overseas mostly US where Berkshire Hathaway is now my largest. I am betting that no matter how crazy the US might become, both Republicans & Democrats see the value of a well-functioning capitalist economy. For my remaining UK investments I have shifted into companies with strong international earnings. The one exception being Lloyds where at least I am collecting 5% dividends.
marktime1231
07 Feb 2018
Who was it come on 'fess up, who of you bought £28M of NG shares at 769p this evening in a single trade.Games?
marktime1231
07 Feb 2018
Re: Sold out Not one of your more cheerful days then, the last week or two has had us all hiding under the covers, but the sun is shining again today! The NG tumble has been miserable but fancy selling out when it looks most investable.If you are parking up waiting for Corbyn to ruin the UK that could be 4 years away if at all, and he would be out to clobber you with mansion tax and sequester your estate. So I wonder where safer and more productive you intend to keep the family fortune in the meantime. Not LLOY who seem well set to me having largely survived the problems you point back to?Probably a good idea to back Euro, US and Asian economies (and currencies ?) for diversity and better growth prospects than we might enjoy in the UK, but then investing in the FTSE eg IUKD is pretty much a global economy bet. With a 5% coupon today, derived mostly from earnings which would be reinforced by a weaker GBP.Or are you a subscriber to the idea that there are only 50-100 companies worldwide truly worth investment, and determined to seek buy and hold them? Works well especially for those whose buying decisions determine the market, but even Buffett (Woodford, LT, ...) get that badly wrong. I know I would, I make absolute howlers about 30% of the time. But my schadenfreude cup was half-full yesterday to see that A V big pension company fund, which is no longer taking 1.46% pa of my pot for doing very little, and against which I benchmark my SIPP progress, had plunged far harder than my own portfolio.
aspace
07 Feb 2018
Re: Sold out Reluctantly I have now sold out my remaining stake in NG because of the increasing clues of government interference and possible nationalisation. Government interference has been hugely destructive at Lloyds Bank. While the bank has recovered reasonably well from its Halifax takeover (which was also brought on by government interference from the PM himself), Europe imposed fines and the FCA exacerbated the multi-billion pound PPI scandal by encouraging spurious claims against Lloyds. I don't want to be hanging onto NG while shareholders suffer equivalent anti-capitalist torture. So I would prefer to position myself for asset purchases some years hence when the pound is further devalued. One day I might be thanking Corbyn for aspace's stately home and estate of cheap properties.
tejo
06 Feb 2018
Truly remarkable 9 month fall insp NG. was 1150 last June and now 756, a truly remarkable fall, almost like a dot. com stock. It is as close to a gilt as one can get in an equity excluding the Corbyn factor. Surely it must be attractive to anyone seeking income and I have added to-day
Guemes
06 Feb 2018
Re: Bargain if not basement? - dandi I decide to buy based upon the agreed regulatory framework until 2021, my view its oversold on the Labour threat (highest risk), its an asset business (my preference) over clicks/middle man businesses......and just feel it's a risk worth taking at this price...Guemes
marktime1231
06 Feb 2018
No where to hide Whether a spasm or a correction, back to where we were a year ago. Is it too early to be thinking of moving cash reserves across ready for trading the bottom? A sharp fall is more likely to be followed by a steady recovery rather than a twang back, so no rush, but it will be interesting to watch how Buffett reacts to 6% off yesterday. Cue some sage words. A US market bounce, not yet?I have one or two more buys in mind for NG, to use up a little bit of spare ISA cash this year, and then when the new window opens, it would be missing out not to at these prices. Very grateful for good dividends at times like this.Extraordinary 5-10% worldwide equities reaction to the possibility of an early or extra 0.25% step in US interest rates, because economic prosects are so extra GOOD. So much for globalisation. Driven by shorting and auto-trading?No point trying to trade here anyway, locked out, II pretending I am entering the wrong details. Thank goodness I am moving accounts.
marktime1231
05 Feb 2018
Defensive after all? At one stage this morning some of the 2018 worst performing stocks ... NG, SSE and UU ... were all behaving like they were supposed to, a defensive haven when the rest of the market was sliding 1+%. May revert to trickling down, but I took some comfort from that behaviour.Meanwhile the daddy of all preservers RCP has offed about 0.9% and is now trading lower than when I first started tracking last year. Even SIGT which is supposed to be preparing itself for the next market correction is down about 1% so far today.The best defence remains cash and gold ... especially when in your own hand ... but it is too late saying check out to cash when some of your long term holdings have lost 10% in the last couple of weeks. The next best defence is to hold and wait for the madness to subside, after all there is no real reason for a serious correction ...... blue chip stocks yielding 5% on sound cover, p/e, cash flow ... FTSE at mid 7000 not unreasonable, record employment, slow but steady uk growth, strong and increasing global growth, wage inflation and interest rates recovering but not out of control ... ... are we seeing algorithms and automatic trading of passive funds behaving together to exaggerate weak sentiment? Catching a man-flu sized cold because the US sneezed last week?
