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Kiss. Many thanks for the update. So 50% share of 30m TVs at 0.5gper TV @ $100kper kg and a 15% royalty gives me around 65% upside to current share price, on 3x sales.
Troyto, think there were 235 million TV's last year. Interesting that 4k UHD TV's are expected to grow from 12 million last year to some 30 million this year [link] That's a huge growth for what is the main market for QD's. I think the price per kg is still between 100-150 thousand dollars though only .5g needed per TV. We're not sure of the royalty rate could be 15-25%.
Cris-Cloud. Does Nanoco represent good value at current prices? Here is my take on it. There are over 200m TVs sold a year globally. Assume around 70m of these would be large enough for CFQDs. (Assuming focus is on large screen TVs initially, but if it's smaller screens as well then there is upside to my assumptions). 2 years ago heard management use the figure of $100,000 per kg of CFQD, but I'm assuming that the price has halved since then so $50,000 per kg. 70m TVs at 1g per TV = 70,000 kgs per annum. That's $3.5bn per annum. Then assume that Nanoco get 50% market share so that is $1.75bn revenue per year, which is c£1.7bn. Nanoco will take a royalty on this revenue stream, which I think will be around 15%. That gets us to £175mof revenue to Nanoco per year. Given that this is very high gross margin sales income I think a 3x sales multiple is not unreasonable so that would equate to a market cap of £525m against the current market cap of £137m. This ignores the potential of smaller screens and other market segments such as lighting, solar, and medical. Lots of assumptions in there,Mobutu I would suggest that the confirmation that Dow can manufacture significant scale will begin to lock down some of these assumptions in fact. I would advise that you use your own assumptions to arrive at your own conclusions, but by way of example even if you assume only a 20% market share for Nanoco, there is still 50% upside to the current share price. Just my personal views, and I am a shareholder, in at 96p.
A delay is a delay and the market is ruthless. Now 2 years behind schedule. I still think Nano are investable but only just. LG need a product and Dow need to begin production. Last chance saloon for Nano this final quarter or the market will lose faith and slaughter them....
The thing about Nanoco is that it is credible. It's not run by a load of business tossers. Its core are some of the best scientists in their field in the world. That's why Dow hooked up with them. And why LG did. I like the fact they don't crow about every little contact with industry, as the other companies do. It's a sign of quality. QTMM are the opposite in that respect. The financial markets are an insanity in the short-term. But in the end, it's all about growth and cash and advantage....
There won't be a sell off with a few weeks more delay. As long as the market believes the story is on track. It's a new industry and the Dow factory a major capital project. Anyone who knows anything about project management would understand this. Also, there is the conference call and what the CEO says to bear in mind.
Hansol chemical are supplying Samsung. Given they are selling millions of SUHD TV's you would have to admit there is some element of scale involved. But I think more supply from different sources will be needed to convince the new assessment bods. But if Dow can get up and running soon that would be a game changer. In fact the more you think about it, it's quite opportune that the assessment is due 2016. Given Dow is producing by then, the exemption won't be allowed and that's two years earlier than the commission wanted initially. Also, 2016 is around the corner in product terms placing a drag on the take up of cad quantum dots imo....
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