BuySel
21 Feb 2020
Another bubble of demand Has come down from the last post here, but for the last couple weeks they seem like after the large drop the share are bouncing back and yesterday and today have been a good success of that [link]
marktime1231
03 Feb 2020
Another bubble of demand Ouch really did not see that coming. Another trading update ahead of FY19 closing firms the guidance to a 7.5%-10% decline in earnings … sounds like that will be enough to wipe out net profits rather than my previous assumption of a pro-rata trimming. As a result all dividends are suspended with a statement that investment in new business will be held back and already FY20 outlook is poor. A genuine change in sentiment, until now all statements have been positive that the new ABS structures are performing with promise and with the expectation that business would turn around. Very disappointed. Market likewise, sp crash towards 50p.
marktime1231
07 Jan 2020
Another bubble of demand Real punishment from the market in response to the unexpected and disappointing trading news before Christmas, sp now reversed to 97p or so. I wonder if a reduced dividend is on the horizon, the Board thinking of reacting to say a 10% lower net earning result by cutting the final dividend from 5.7p to … 5p maybe? If that is the case, and we are hopefully at the bottom of the bad news cycle, there might be a chance to add while ths sp is still depressed, when the next ISA / pension contribution window opens. But not yet, this time I am going to wait for the news rather than anticipate the outcome. Hard results and dividend decision not until mid-March.
marktime1231
23 Dec 2019
Another bubble of demand Rotten Christmas present from NAHL this morning, why could they not wait until the scheduled trading update in January. As always the market over reacting too, 18p off the sp because net profit might miss by 5-10% when p/e is already a bargain. Rotten timing too, I usually have a bit of spare cash around to take advantage and now will have to juggle things around. Maybe a bit of room in the income SIPP if I trim off the recent progress in EAT.
marktime1231
17 Sep 2019
Another bubble of demand Drat that was not in the script. Business and financials as good as expected, slightly better actually, and management continue to be confident about the outlook. eps (after exceptionals) slightly down on last year, but debt in control, cash flowing etc. And yet the interim divi was trimmed from 3.2p to 2.6p. Kicked the sp back down to 118p. Rats I was crossing everything for the sp pick up today.
marktime1231
13 Sep 2019
Another bubble of demand Demand from those coming out of the woodwork ahead of interim results and dividend announcement due next Tues 17 Sep. Buy price bubbled above 125p but still quite low volumes so far.
marktime1231
15 Apr 2019
Bubble of activity Well yes it does have the steam, a further boost today albeit still low volumes takes us over 115p with news that NA Law is up and running … something we knew was coming, but terrific to have it confirmed that the business is delivering what it promises and the PR is helpful too. Might up the threshold for the first slice to 125p.
marktime1231
14 Apr 2019
Bubble of activity More progress late last week saw NAH step up again to now trading in the 110-115p range, albeit low volumes. Does this have the steam to get to 120p, when I might take a small slice of profit and try a punt or two elsewhere, with just 6 trading days left to ex-div? Much more recovery still to come here though, how things are going ytd should be on the agenda at the AGM in May ahead of H1s in July.
marktime1231
28 Mar 2019
Bubble of activity Another flurry of interest late this afternoon, trades in the 105-110p range so it feels like this could be the last chance for a bargain, p/e still under 6 and every chance the next trading update could point to recovery. Momentum in the run up to ex-div on 25 Apr might yet get us to my 120p target.
marktime1231
19 Mar 2019
Bubble of activity Tra La Final divi was “only†5.7p but everything else pretty much as expected, eg not as bad as other people feared, and management confidence high on trading ytd they may have turned a corner already. Placed an overnight order to add a few more before the sp rises any further, I suppose momentum up to 120p would be too much to ask for?
marktime1231
20 Feb 2019
Bubble of activity A considerable volume of NAH traded on the markets today, over 7% of the total stock changed hands including someone who bought 3% in one bite first this morning at 77p. The effect has been a surge in the share price to 81p while we all wonder what is behind it. The profit warning in January saying we might be 10% down on expectations of a quiet year, while the business turns its strategy around to respond to the loss of whiplash type claims, perhaps caused an over-reaction? Results are not due for another month so maybe an institution has just gambled that we might still see an 8p or so final dividend and the share price returning to 120p … so long as the news, when it does come, is no worse than forewarned. My own gamble is that this is a well run and potentially highly profitable business if they get the turnaround right, hopefully headed back to 200p in the next year or two, and the dividends in the meantime are top draw. If they keep them up …
marktime1231
05 Apr 2018
Added a major slice at 130p this afternoon.Curiously this time in my long term Income portfolio ... the sustainability of a 10%+ dividend on the evidence of continuing eps of 20p+ and free cash flow while the business model is restructured ... and a chance of a twang back to 250p if the new strategy is shown to succeed in the next 18 months.A bit of a gamble but so is everything at the moment, we might see the sp plunge when it goes ex-div on 26 Apr, but I don't think this is a trap like other stocks which tempt you in with extraordinary dividends only to collapse.
marktime1231
28 Mar 2018
Back in this afternoon a small stake at 132p, seems such a good bargain, a splendid dividend on the way and a p/e which does not reflect the resilience or the potential of the business. Not sure we have hit the bottom but we can't be far off, doesn't really matter, the medium term outloook is to double up from here.
Vosene
21 Mar 2018
Re: Not so bad A lot of companies float on AIM with a generous dividend policy to get the floatation away and then settle on something more reasonable. 2x cover is ok. At the moment I would say this is underrated giving still a high yield and low PE at current price. Should really be in the 200-250p range
charlie51
21 Mar 2018
Re: Not so bad Agree overall, but I think the move to raise dividend cover to x2 from x1.5 was unexpected and has spooked many. The dividend will reduce significantly.
