johnybigarms1
22 Jan 2017
Re: Simple valuations Well put Senn, I agree with your statements, what amazes me is looking at other Gold explorers, some I have held in the past, SolGold (SOLG) for example, AIMs best performing share of 2016, they are excited about gold and copper drilling results in Equador, they are at least 5 years away from ever mining the discovery, have 1.4 billion shares (1.4billion SOLG versus 2.1billion MTL) share price is 30p SOLG versus 5p MTL, so market cap is £420 million SOLG v £105 million MTL, that's 4 times more expensive, why? A mineral explorer with 100 staff (SOLG) versus a mineral producer with 500 staff (MTL)MTL have jumped through 100s of hoops to be in this position, about to actually make shareholder value through mining, that's got to more valuable than an explorer with all those 100s of hoops to yet be jumped through. Logic would put MTL at 30p and SOLG at 5p, maybe with the passing of another year, logic will prevail.
senn1965
22 Jan 2017
Re: Simple valuations Nice summary Hub,Like you say the early bird catches the worm, maybe the director has seen the worm already?If all goes well you could see 15p summer or more, and with the way the market treats Trump Gold could soar this year, as it stands at the moment this will make a shed load of cash at present levels but any future rises who knows, all speculation of course, lets get the update in Feb and see where this stands.
Hub
22 Jan 2017
Re: Simple valuations There two reasons why MTL's sp is 5p.1. Market makers are facilitating an II sale to what looks like another II2. The placing at 5p under pins where the compant currently is in risk termsPoint 1 will be resolved sooner rather than later and with no major sellers about, stock will be scarece and the sp tends to move fast under these circumstances especially when supported by news.Point 2 relates to the unknowns. These include Mine performance, gold price, regional red tape and finally debt repayments. The latter is the main reason the share price is 5p range rather than 10p range.As far as I can see, this stock will rerate significantly (1 bagger at least) when the market sees proof of the following:1. Seller cleared2. Performance of mine delivering steady gold sales3. Debt being reduced inline with the renegotiated payment schedule4. Gold Prices firming towards to 1300 to 1400 levelsIt's possible that much of the above can be ticked off before Q1 is over.Which is why you are beginning to see some healthy trading volumes.There are risk factors and these remain until proven otherwise, but assuming the cash rolls in and gold price is firm at 1200 levels or better, the there is no reason at all why they cannot meet debt repayment schedule.When all debt is cleared, then you are looking at free flowing cash. I'm sure much of this will be pumped back into boosting resource/production but hopefully with a much lower debt profile going forwards.Like Hummingbird Resources, the early phase of production is used to pay down debt. MTL are further advanced than HUM and as such should command an sp that reflects values closer to future cash flowsIf it nudges up to 6p not too many will bat an eye lid. the time its 7p, 40% gains will already be in. And at 10p a multibagger has arrived.The early bird gets the worm but with added risk.HUB
senn1965
22 Jan 2017
Re: Simple valuations Yes the valuation is very attractive at current levels, i am adding this week to my holding if it stays under 6p, as i expect this to change fast on production update next month.Not many stocks left that could multibag so pay your money take your chances.Senn.
johnybigarms1
22 Jan 2017
Simple valuations Looking at the last accounts 6 months ago the company was valued at around a Net £113 million (total assets of the mine minus total outstanding loans) yet today's market cap is only £105 million, so at 5p a share, if it was possible today to buy every share released to date, you would own a100% of a functioning gold mine for less cash than its actual net value, crazy opportunity for investors today, your not paying multiples of its net value as you would expect with such huge future earning capabilities, but actually less than it cost to build the whole operation, now that's simple to understand, it's a screaming BUY
senn1965
21 Jan 2017
Re: Existing holder Wait for the whoop moment not far away.
johnybigarms1
21 Jan 2017
Re: Existing holder Even my wife is joining in on this one, she has just opened an account with SharePrice, if I can't sell the wife then using her money is the next best thing, she's after 50000 on Monday, hoping for one last chance at 5p
senn1965
21 Jan 2017
Re: Senn/Hub All the info on production is on the website FYISenn
senn1965
21 Jan 2017
Re: Baker Steel Am not so sure they are? looks like the overhang is clearing, all i can see for ther last week is someone mopping up millions here at 5p, they certainly are not sells. Looks like some shuffling of the pack before major news on production in Feb to me, which will see this rerate 10-15p imhoSenn.
johnybigarms1
21 Jan 2017
Baker Steel Baker Steel are are major holder of MTL, around 13%, where did the idea that Baker Steel were distressed and raising cash by lowering there position? Seems a strange time to sell if they are.
senn1965
21 Jan 2017
Re: Senn/Hub Had a look at PAF for you, in my opinion i would rather add here for a top up, this is the way i think and it could be wrong but PAF haspotential but is way behind this as infrustructure has yet to be done for the project, also they are not going to produce until 2018, there doing 46k oz a year for 13 years from start of production also, the chart looks like it could go either way but has had a nice rise.The reasons why i prefer this for the near term over PAF are MTL is mine is built all done, gold pouurs being done sales ect see web site, production costs are less, 96k oz per year is double, and production costs only 400 bucks an oz.And last but not least i like to buy at the bottom and i think this presents a great time to fill up hereas it stands with what is coming in the interim.Not sating PAF will not come good down the line but if i had a choice i would top up here then top slice spring summer, and maybe buy some more PAF when the project is a little further down the line.Senn.
Maverick
20 Jan 2017
Existing holder Tripled up today.GLA
senn1965
20 Jan 2017
Re: HUB Elastic band? I concur, I think a buyer is mopping up very nicely, just in time for news mid Feb. Cana tell you know more.The bounce should be past 10p and with the added bonus of continued trouble free production could see 20p in the summer. Buy and hold imho.Senn.
Hub
20 Jan 2017
Re: HUB Elastic band? Should get an RNS on Holdings next week. But looks like Baker Steel may be a distressed seller. In which case, could mean much of the same for a few weeks yet.But once they are cleared (if they are indeed seeking to liquidate shareholding) this should do very well.If I were management, I would prefer not to release good news into market so Baker Steel can sell into strength. I would appoint a new Nomad/broker and ask them to find some buyers for Baker Steel's stock and pronto.mmmHUB
senn1965
20 Jan 2017
HUB Elastic band? 14 million more bought before 10am this morning just shown up, i would say were getting close to the end bullits running out and elastic band ready to pop, could be explosive if it comes with a nice update soon as expected, maybe that is the plan??Senn.
