nk1999
05 Mar 2017
Telegraph- Questor "The Questor Column:Morrisons’ back-to-basics success reflected in its growing share price: The drive from Leeds to Bradford is barely 11 miles, but the West Yorkshire cities’ best-known retailers have been light years apart lately. Leeds-based Asda might belong to the Walmart empire but 10 consecutive quarters of falling sales illustrate that the original deep discounter is suffering at the hands of its rivals. The suspicion is that the Waltons of Arkansas are too focused on extracting a large dividend from Asda each year instead of investing to keep pace in the UK’s cut-throat supermarket sector. A strong Christmas trading update, reporting like-for-like sales growth excluding fuel of 2.9%, sent hopes high that Morrisons will deliver more good news with its preliminary results this Thursday. Those January numbers prompted analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove to mark-up earnings forecasts for this year by 10% and margin assumptions by 20 basis points. There is scope for Morrisons to set new targets for free cash and cost savings. More than £1 billion has been squeezed from the cost base in three years and there is more to be done in areas of product ordering, distribution and in-store administration. In addition, the retailer owns 80% of its property freeholds and has been judiciously trimming the portfolio. Latest reports were that £850 million had been raised from property sales, with £1.1 billion targeted in the medium term. Questor has tracked Morrisons’ shares higher over the last few months, recommending readers buy at 217p in November and again at 240.9p in January. Trading at 20 times this year’s forecast earnings, there is more to come. Questor says “Buy (at ~243p)”."nk
Herald
24 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme [link] This site is £165 per year if you want to see latest data. You can view for free 3 month old data. I wonder if anyone who has subscribed has thought that the information provided assisted in making good investment decisions.Anyway this is a diversion with Ubiq's contention that the current MRW price performance was abnormal because it was contrary to broker opinion.As to the market-maker manipulation theory I have no data to be able to comment on that particular view. However I did notice on one day earlier this week that Buy volume outdid Sells by what looks a significant 7 million to 4 million and the price went down. Is that manipulation or just what can typically happen. Perhaps someone with buy/sell volume data for the stock market in general could address that point. (Right now (14.34 Friday) the LSE site has volume as follows 2,858 1,774,889 3,674,732 ie number of trades, volume sold, volume bought - so how come price is down, or are there trades outwith this which are not recorded in the volume figures. [link] conspiracy theories there are some factual improvements in MRW the company. Debt is down from 2.8 billion to 1.2 billion and there was a further buyback of debt last month. [link] interest payments is one way to improve profitability. The full year of sales increases in existing stores compares well to the dire 14% lfl decline over 4 years under the previous regime. Utilising the manufacturing sites to expand the wholesale side of the business is a significant advantage over rivals who have to import a greater proportion of their produce and pay a middleman. How much would that business be worth on its own?The massive increase in the short position took place when the ballooning debt, falling sales, costly policy u-turns and headless chicken management style put the very future existence of the company in some doubt. Unless the sp crashes back the hedge funds are stuck with the fact they need to re-purchase nearly 400 million shares at some point, many will have to close at a loss. Whether the improvements are enough to justify the current price is the key question and we'll get a little more guidance on that issue next month, March 9.
gamesinvestor
24 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme "Barclays have been "underweight" all the way up from the lows in the 140s."Herald, keep and eye on them, I wouldn't be surprised if MRW reaches a peak they then shift their stance to hold, then overweight then buy and then track it all the way back down to 140 with successive buy ratings.Games -- Oh the reliability and accuracy of the brokers, like a Swiss watch you can run the trains by them !!
Divermaster
22 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme Just like the gambler chasing his losses, Barclays might be right one day. But in the meantime they're looking very stupid. How much do these get paid for this sort of tea-leaf reading?
Herald
22 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme Many just use broker forecasts as a reinforcement view of the bias they already hold. Is there any academic research which indicates that broker forecasts are anything other than a monkey with a dart random opinion. With regard to Barclays it's while since they were that keen on MRW. While still bearish their target prices just seem to track the prices ie as the price has risen they seem to allow themselves another shot at predicting the right price. Barclays have been "underweight" all the way up from the lows in the 140s. That's target price and mkt price at the time of the tip. [link] Barclays Capital Reiterates Underweight 205 249.3016/09/2016 Barclays Capital Reiterates Underweight 190 208.1011/03/2016 Barclays Capital Reiterates Underweight 165 192.9018/12/2015 Barclays Capital Reiterates Underweight 155 148.30
gamesinvestor
20 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme ubiq, or alternatively it could be that the brokers are just wrong, after all GS predicted oil prices at $200 for the last 2 years :-Goldman Sachs 11/01 Reiterates Sell 185.00p Citigroup 06/01 Reiterates Sell 130.00p HSBC 06/01 Reiterates Reduce 160.00p The last statement shows the eejit nature of these so called experts.Why on earth would anyone with sane mind recommend reduce (meaning you should keep some of your holding) when you are convinced of a 35% drop.Games -- They are building a big Aldi across the road from MRW here - life's going to get harder for MRW, SBRY, TSCO, ASDA
Ubiq
16 Feb 2017
Re: Pyramid Scheme 16-Feb-17 Barclays Underweight - 205.00 Reiteration15-Feb-17 HSBC - Reduce. - 200.00 Reiteration Any other share would fall on broker recommendations like this and price targets substantially lower than the current SP. no effect at all. Morrisons is beyond the sphere of control of normal market drivers.
Ubiq
16 Feb 2017
Pyramid Scheme Morrisons price action is akin to a pyramid scheme. There's a very distinguished pattern to the price movement throughout the day. The market makers responsible are contriving to mark it up. Why does Sainsburys trade on a p/e of 12 and Morrisons 27?The answer lies in market maker manipulation. Because this share is heavily shorted they have colluded to mark it up week on week for months now,irrespective of reality and fundamentals. At 4.15pm everyday the shareprice rises like clockwork to close higher. fixing the SP the market makers can ensure the 16 percent of shares out on short can never be bought for a profit. That is the only viable explanation Morrisons is a superstar performer in the ftse 100. Amazed they can get away with it, it goes to show the power of MMs. They have the power to fix with impunity.
gamesinvestor
10 Feb 2017
Re: Market Makers are Running a Corner "upwards momentum" - only applies until it becomes er!! -- downward momentuminteresting concept, equally as interesting as :-"strategic inflexion points" - when is it strategic and when is it just a change in direction?"head and shoulders" - refer to the Procter & Gamble web site"Candlesticks" - mainly required in the event of a power cut"Double Top" - scores 40 on a dart board"Double Bottom" -- well work it out from the last"Fibonacci number" -- Pick a number- any number!!Games -- Technical Analysis is better perhaps termed - "blind faith in patterns"Of course I'm a strong believer in it of course, he quotes somewhat "blindly".Yes I have read John J Murphy's book -- it takes up a lot of shelf space mind and at $90 a pop it's an expensive dust collector."
Ubiq
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Makers are Running a Corner Check this outMorrisons is off the radar. It's way outperformed the ftse100 and the index is in a raging bull phase. Morrisons has either become a copper bottomed business with a golden future and massive growth to fit its current 26 p/eOr it's a dog that's been inflated by market makers and other malignant factors. Take your pick.
Ubiq
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Makers are Running a Corner Games If I were a technical analysis trader Morrison's is a text book long trade. TA traders trade on momentum and very few ftse 100 shares have the upwards momentum of Morrisons. Bear in mind about 70 percent of trades in today's world are done by algorithms and they are programmed by TA. Morrisons has become a self fulfilling superstar market performer because of that. The Institutional funds who hold 16 percent of the shares as shorts trade its fundamentals and massive overvaluation. But that doesn't count for nothing when the SP is being driven up by an alternate reality. Ubiq
gamesinvestor
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Makers are Running a Corner """The 17 analysts offering 12 month price targets for WM Morrison Supermarkets PLC have a median target of 207.00, with a high estimate of 260.00 and a low estimate of 165.00. The median estimate represents a -15.99% decrease from the last price of 246.40.""Hi Estimate - 260Medium estimate - 207Low estimate - 165so if any of this is remotely accurate we have a 13p upside, or up to a 62p downside.Games - as I type this MRW is advertising 2 rump steaks for £5 for Valentine's day -- nice, but the wife will use them on my black eye if I even venture to suggest them -- !!!
Bill1703
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Makers are Running a Corner "Trades on a hefty p/e of 26... The most overvalued stock in the index on fundamentals... The answers to Morrisons absurd valuation lie in the high volume of shorts 16.5 percent..."Ubiq - certainly, MRW is fully valued up here - at least. But, with currently positive operational and financial momentum, to say it is absurd is... er, absurd. I can think of a number of more obviously overvalued stocks in the index - and even in its own sector (TSCO being, still, significantly more expensive IMHO, on pretty much every measure).I have the MRW P/E at more like 22-23x on current year estimates - and sure, this needs to come down further, one way or another. But the FCF yield (most recent historic) is still above 9% at the current SP... a massive premium to the market average.It is this (fairly novel) significant free cash generation which many in the market are missing IMO... across the sector (less so for TSCO vs MRW and SBRY) as the business model shifts to lower capital intensity. And has arguably transformed the supermarkets as an investment proposition, even on higher current P/Es (at least for MRW/TSCO). As long as FCF can be sustained anywhere near recent levels... I appreciate this is a big "if", though time will tell.Yes, the short situation needs to be monitored carefully. And I also agree with Games, a slip back below 200p, on any change in sentiment and/or operational delivery, looks more likely than a continuing surge to 300p, or anywhere close. So on that basis, it's more of a Sell than a Buy here... But I challenge the idea that a significant pull-back is inevitable.
gamesinvestor
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Maker Manipulation Herald, according to Ubiq's figures there are more sellers than buyers so it doesn't look like a short squeeze, at least based on yesterday's figures."""Today's volumes - sold 11,812,086 bought 5,019,546"""Games
Herald
09 Feb 2017
Re: Market Maker Manipulation "How long..." Until the 385 million shares still currently sold short are bought back......?If the hedge funds finally think they have backed the wrong horse for a kicking (increased sales, debt down by 2/3rds, not going into administration etc) then we'll have a short squeeze in which the sp has continual nice little fillips courtesy of the shorters putting a stop to their losses by buying back shares and pushing up the price. But with average daily volume of just 13 million this could be a while before shorters leave the building.There has already been a significant reduction in short position. It was as high as 23% for most of last year, now about 16-17%. However some firms have not given up the bearish stance and have added recently. [link]
