IOMINVESTCOM
16 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... Hi CT,Two that spring to mind for me are SDRY and ITVatb
CASTLEFORD TIGER
15 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... please share with me anything you find that has1) As strong a brand name2) A secure Dividend3) Possible recovery and capital gain.4) Capital preservationIn all seriousness I am always looking but can only monitor so many.I have plenty of punts ( Stagecoach /BT etc)...........but I place MKS a notch above them.regardsTiger
IOMINVESTCOM
14 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... Hi Tiger yes it is for me with funds directed on other things with less of a cloud over them but your probably right to say starting with a 2 is not a bad start I am just being mean to see if the prices comes close to that area to improve average price paidatb
CASTLEFORD TIGER
14 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... Is it worth hanging on for those extra 25 pennies?Brokers note out says 330p and I think that's fair right now.We are still over 6% plus a few perks.I am very happy buying anything with a 2 at the front?Tiger
IOMINVESTCOM
14 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... Hi Bill - I think you will do ok over time at these levels.I will need to do the same as you ie bring my average down at some point but for some reason I have held off but if we get down as low as Jefferies lowest price target of 2.50 then I will take the plunge between 250-260.It maybe when we get news flow on the dividend yield and shorters level reduction by closing we see the downtrend get tested and then build from there.atb
Bill1703
12 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... "Personally, I am looking to buy, rather than sell, when both expectations and valuations are at historically-low levels - until such time as it's proved the wrong strategy (and it never has before)..."FWIW I have added to my holding this morning, in reasonable size. Not without risk in this one, obviously... but at least it brings down my average price to what looks like a very decent risk/reward level long term...All power to Archie's elbow! Do your worst...
tradingup
09 Feb 2018
STOP IT! The bickering that is! - doesn't help anyone for people to be trying to pull each other down.
gamesinvestor
08 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... "Reads like performance with hindsight " >>> No just the facts old boy !"If you bought IG in Jan 17 (or were you holding before it crashed) ">>> I bought in Dec 2016, March 2017 and Sep2017"You boast you sold out of GSK mid year at 1700p the perfect time or fluke">>> Oh dear you are perhaps a little untrustworthy - these are the details if it helps but I doubt you'll believe them :-Glaxo GSK 1700.125 0 0 1416.7449 701 04/04/16 £11,918 20.00%Glaxo GSK 1700.125 0 0 1390.395 719 02/03/16 £12,224 22.28%Glaxo GSK 1700.125 0 0 1370.25 725 18/02/16 £12,326 24.07%>> The dates on the right are the purchase dates (The date of sale was 6Jun2017) you can check the price on that date if you are still sceptical. There are others in addition to this but there is sufficient information here for illustration purposes.""The smug wisdom of hindsight and what has the whiff of horse about it. And despite your cocky sarcasm now you may just be wrong "">>> Oh dear you really are an unpleasant -- GSK as I've already stated is an unknown for me -- there is no smugness and certainly no sarcasm about my views on GSK, just a lot of uncertainty about it's value on my part, rightly or wrongly , hence the reluctance to reinvest. - It's good to follow the old advice that if you are unsure about something - "Don't Invest" - If however you are successful with a rising price on GSK good luck with it, I hope it works out for you."Hmmmn Microsoft over Amazon for growth, hmmm Pay Pal, some of those picks look past prime already but what do I know">> Indeed, so why make the point at all -- you ask for a top 10 and I gave it to you. I didn't particularly chose Microsoft over Amazon, I just happen to have held Microsoft over a long period of time - Amazon would have been a great pick but I didn't make that call sadly.PayPal is a hardly past prime, given the fact it grows at 20% a quarter and some 85% of the world's transactions are still cash -- the scope is pretty large if you believe PayPal has a good positioning in payment systems -- I happen to believe it does so I'm believing it will perhaps do well again in 2018 -- no guarantees of course. """you have very little diversity and you have .... actually, I have no interest in commenting on stocks I have no interest in. Try it.""">>> Not sure there is a lot of coherence in that statement but to address the lack of diversity, I guess it's reasonable in the sense it consists of companies in several areas -Cloud Computing and business software - MSFTPayment Systems - PayPalConsumer Discretionary - UnileverManufacturing and Materials - VictrexRetail - MKS and NXTFinancial Services - IG GroupManufacturing Technology and Measurement Systems - RenishawHealthcare - AMS, Alliance Pharma; Novo Nordisk; ShireMedia Advertising - WPP, ITVMobile Phones and Multimedia - AppleCosmetics and Personal care - Estee LauderTicketing and Travel Support Systems - AmadeusWhilst this doesn't represent all of my portfolio, I think the diversity is pretty broad.What it doesn't include for deliberate reasons : Banking; Insurance; Commodities etc - but that's a decision I've decided I would prefer.""" But I am sick of your negative energy and as we can now see a certain looseness with reality.""> There is no looseness in reality on my part old chap, but perhaps a bitter and twisted view from your perspective -- I suggest you and I don't bother communicating on here and or agree to keep it civil if at all possible.Games -- Have fun old boy and try not to take it too seriously !!
marktime1231
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... There you go, positive is not so bad, a pity you couldn't manage it without the snide.Reads like performance with hindsight but honest enough to admit you are still finding it tricky to forecast what your top ten holdings for the year would have been a month ago. Slippery business being right before the facts isn't it.I won't pick through all of it, here is just some of the nonsense -If you bought IG in Jan 17 (or were you holding before it crashed) at c. 500p its low how do you get 55% annual growth when it ended the year at c. 715p? Paid out 32p. And why back that dud performance over Plus500 which more than doubled in the year and paid 65p on its way to another double up. Completely misjudged which one to bet on, so much for your crystal ball and your maths.You boast you sold out of GSK mid year at 1700p the perfect time or fluke, having held or bought in at 1562p (knowing what you know all along) how reckless of you not to sell out at 1647p before it troughed in April or at 1665p before it slipped in May ... especially since you are now tannoying it is not even worth 1300p a few months later, not so much has changed. The smug wisdom of hindsight and what has the whiff of horse about it. And despite your cocky sarcasm now you may just be wrong ... the fundamentals of GSK are still there, much of the previous surge was driven by GBP:USD which could swing us back to 1600p again.MKS is dogging along but the brand is so strong we are entitled to hold on in the hope it turns around, just as you are entitled to walk away. Quietly once you have made your point.Hmmmn Microsoft over Amazon for growth, hmmm Pay Pal, some of those picks look past prime already but what do I know, I am not an expert in every stock both sides of the Atlantic, I get WPP but not tobacco or newspapers, Victrex is an interesting long given the mood against plastic and have you seen who the chair of audit is, you have very little diversity and you have .... actually, I have no interest in commenting on stocks I have no interest in. Try it.I am sure you don't mean to sound like a boastful so and so who knows everything, going round the board including where you say you have no position or interest telling everyone else they are wrong and why for sure your analysis is right. But I am sick of your negative energy and as we can now see a certain looseness with reality.Ignore it is.
gamesinvestor
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... marktime -- you don't like negative views on companies do you?Maybe even particularly from me -- but heh ho perhaps you have a point that I should show some positive views and look at the good one's.Well last year my top 10 performers were in order of investment size:-Microsoft -- 3.97% of my holding - annual growth 36%Novo Nordisk -- 3.66% of my holding - annual growth 62%Unilever -- 3.5% of my holding - annual growth 27%PayPal -- 3.4% of my holding - annual growth 84%IG Group -- 3.33% of my holding - annual growth 55%Renishaw -- 3% (after taking a 3rd profit) of my holding - annual growth 96%Advanced Medical Solutions -- 2.92% of my holding - annual growth 42%Apple -- 2.37% of my holding - annual growth 49%Estee Lauder -- 2.23% of my holding - annual growth 54%Amadeus -- 1.2% of my holding - annual growth 42%I chose these 10 because I still hold them all.I had some other winners which have now been sold :-AZN; GSK; -- both more by good luck and the momentum of the market than the quality of the companies which don't look great to me. (there you go again Games - don't hit me with those negative waves)Burberry -- had a 60+% gain on this after getting in at the nadir and selling out when the new CEO changed the strategy (was 4% of my wad and I was miffed to see it go, but it's dropped a lot since so it does give me a modicum of comfort).RIO and Glencore -- more rescued from the Nadir to give me about a 30% gain on exit.Lloyds Bank -- dipped in and out twice for about a 10-12% gain - probably best left alone from here - for me at least.So what were my less than successful picks, apart from MKS of course :-Shire -- surprised me with it's under-performance Imperial Brands (more so the fall since the beginning of the year to be honest)Centrica - like an eejit I held on for too long now it's the dog of all dogs beating MKS into a cocked hat.Top 10 for this year -- a bit tricky innit forecasting the future but here goes with a revised view on one I already posted on another board :-PayPalShire - It's pretty cheap now to my chagrin!Imperial Brands -- sticking neck out as it's sadly 4% of my wadDaily Mail and General Trust -- I hate the rag, but the underlying investments look goodAlliance Pharma Victrex -- I think it can go a long wayNext -- although a lot of the recovery has happened and I may eject it earlyProcter and Gamble - alhough I haven't bought it yetWPP - already piled in here but still at 1.35% of my wadFEET -- I don't normally go for funds, but because of the remote reach I'm giving Terry Smith the benefit of my injection of cash 1.55% -- will take this to 2.5% in drips.That's it - +ve and -ve enough for you there Marky?I love Marks and Spencer really you know - I'm just playing devil's advocate.I'll leave you with this Marky to make you chuckle :- [link] - I must pop in and get some of their leather slippers to prop up the clothing business !!
gamesinvestor
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... "What is the evidence"Bill -- It's clothing business has been in decline or static for years. It would be best served in selling it before it gets crippled by the competition.MKS earnings have been in decline for years and it doesn't look like increasing.As I said FCF is all very nice but it's not sustainable without growth. The dividend cover is falling and historically when MKS has been too optimistic with it, it's been cut. At 1.5X (forget FCF as mentioned) it's getting dangerously over generous.The debts are high and the pension liabilities are even higher -- yes bond yields are rising offering some relief, but like currencies, his can easily reverse.MKS would be better served reducing it's debts rather than paying an over generous dividend from a static business.Operating margins are falling to cope with competition and this doesn't look like getting any easier -- everyone is slashing prices to compete.I made a mistake investing in MKS, I hold my hands up and admit that. The issue now is can I get out of it unscathed or will I have to cut and run.Unless Archie and his sidekick has a Baldrick "cunning plan", this could just get uglier.Games
marktime1231
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... MKS continues to disappoint like the BBC, it is still being run by entrenched dinosaurs 15 years behind the times who mouth that they understand the need to modernise but don't admit they are part of the problem and can't change themselves. Like the BBC the brand and so the business is worth saving, I have still got some vouchers somewhere! I am in but I will need some good news to add.I read yesterday that MKS marketing has finally called in those retail and consumer analytic experts, the ones behind the loyalty cards and data profiling revolution 20 years ago. No doubt in ten years' time the penny will drop and MKS will invest in zinging young fashion, really smart online tech and mobile apps, and young person-friendly fulfillment. Gender equal pay even. Strewth!Games like all good critics you continue to dismiss picks with brilliant timing and excellent reasoning usually when they are vulnerable, clearly a good analyst of fundamentals but most of it seems determined at shooting things down, tremendous purveyor of negative sentiment. I am still waiting for you to say what are the good picks where you have bet your own money or will be doing so with foresight. Your posts keep coming up where we are so I'm guessing you have been tracking at least where we have, with all the same thrills and spills, the same success and failure. Or not?Maybe that negativity is useful when the likes of me or Bill the optimist are being pig-headedly cheerful about where we have picked and why, we need challenge to our conviction and balance to our rose-tinted view. The constant grinding down is rather wearisome though, not for the first time I have been hovering over the mute button.Games ... top 10 last year, how did it go, this year's top 10 picks? You commented on Bill and other's declarations at New Year but I don't remember other than passing references you putting yours up. Where is all the clever money this year?How about from now on for every bad review or criticism as to why an investment is a bad prospect you put up a good one, for every sell you put up a hold or buy and say why? Or how about balancing your own isolated negative view of some aspect with the positive counter-arguments in case there are some?There that was therapeutic. Back to youtube-ing Screamin' Jay. Chapeau to Thomas Cook for its I Am The Cool ad campaign, they looked vacant in the last 3 months of 2017 but the shop near me is now buzzing.
Bill1703
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... "This is turning into a disaster... Cash flows are all fine and dandy, but if your business is withering on the vine, it'll count for nothing."A trifle emotional, Games? Outperforming a crashing market.... It's times like these that separate the men from the boys, no place for the lily-livered and knee-jerkers - I suspect we've already seen the last of some of the more febrile posters on these boards after this week. Personally, I am looking to buy, rather than sell, when both expectations and valuations are at historically-low levels - until such time as it's proved the wrong strategy (and it never has before). But selectively, of course - you still have to try and dodge the real duds...So you are right, IF a business is truly withering... but is this the case for M&S? What is the evidence... real evidence I mean, not a faltering SP, we know by now (surely?) just how misleading and ephemeral the latter often proves.For me, while the environment is clearly challenging (but when hasn't it been?), MKS continues to tick many, if not quite all, boxes - and at what price? A 6.5% divi, still very nicely covered... a full 12% historic FCF yield at the current SP, and still probably over 10% prospectively; 10x forecast (depressed) earnings, and more pertinently (for MKS) a mere 5x EV/EBITDA, only half the UK market average; and now only 1.5x NAV for a physical-asset-rich and flexible balance sheet (NXT is on 15x!!)Not without risk, of course - but then, what is? People telling you that UK Gilts are the ultimately risk-free investment have had a rude awakening these past few weeks, and have probably only more disturbed sleep to look forward to for the foreseeable...
gamesinvestor
07 Feb 2018
Re: Oh dear ... This is turning into a disaster.Cash flows are all fine and dandy, but if your business is withering on the vine, it'll count for nothing.I'm out of this on any sensible rebound methinks.Games -- Retail -- why was I even tempted eh?
marktime1231
31 Jan 2018
Oh dear ... How on earth does outsourcing your customer-facing operation put the customer at the heart of what you do, what a moronic thing to say by a woman who has been in charge of customer service at MKS for 22 years and outsourcing her job for 16 of those.MKS does not think online business is core? Probably why its website and online service and fulfilment have been so painful and getting the business nowhere. But shutting more stores announced, ahead of a trading update this evening which must be more bad news. So has MKS simply given up?Due a shuffle Archie?An extension contract to teetering Capita, oh dear, who manage customer services for the likes of TV Licensing, Criminal Records, bookmakers, parking fines ... and for Debenhams and John Lewis, so hardly setting MKS apart. MKS might simply sell its stuff on Amazon?From a statement two weeks ago ... Jo Moran, head of customer services at M&S, said: "Over the last 15 years Capita has helped us put the customer at the heart of everything we do. Consolidating customer support to Capita will provide greater synergies between M&S's UK and international online operations, and offer customers a consistent customer experience wherever they shop M&S."A quick check of the June 2017 annual report where intangibles at £709M were about 22.5% of net assets. Trailing liabilities to its closed pension scheme are only about £50M.
