FUNKY_SAUSAGE
27 Jul 2017
Re: Madame Tussauds No it was just MT giving away our money for nothing and the ice cream was unbranded ... I also found out that they have given half of all food sales to a guy called Charlie across all attractions ... Selling stuff like chocolate fountain strawberries and marshamllows etc .... why they cant so this on their own is baffling .. every penny counts atm and their just either giving half of our miney away or giving it all away ... makes me so angry ... has to be in the 100ks of giveaways across all uk attractions ... These people sound more like council workers that havent a clue ... Why give half of the food buisness to a contractor when they can easily use the over flow of excessive staff to do the same thing ... The SP says it atm and imo they should be counting every penny possible.FS
Eadwig
27 Jul 2017
Re: Madame Tussauds FUNKY SAUSAGE,How much are they charging to get into that horrible place these days?I wouldn't judge them on actions at just one venue, even if it is the most popular attraction in the Uk. Maybe the ice cream maker was paying them for the pitch just to get out its name and taste to peeps, for all we know, even if presented as coming free from Merlin.
Eadwig
24 Jul 2017
Re: limit lifted. Patience has paid off and the summer 'drift' has indeed got me the @465p price I wanted, if not the @440p I was hoping for.It is still July though, so I have set another limit order @440p. Also, MERL could have a slide along with the whole index if there is an overall market pullback and @440p is only 5% down on today's price.I have given a STRONG BUY because unless there is the overall market correction mentioned above, it may be that anyone looking for an entry point might not get a much better chance than this @464ish - Merlin's income is increasingly from abroad and diversified while the GBP looks set to slide further making MERL increasingly a stock with foreign earnings and the premium that brings with it in the FTSE 100 these days.In line with my 'trading around a position' policy for holdings I intend for the long-term, I now have two full tranches at an average of @409p. Ideally I would like to have 4 tranches of this stock eventually, but at no more than @400p average, so I still have some work to do.
Eadwig
30 Jun 2017
Re: limit lifted. I have a limit order @465p for my next tranche, quite a lot higher than I had planned for when wrongly assuming a cooling off of the price after the full year results statement.I was hopeful I would get a chance @440p some time this summer, but even @465p only looks likely on quite a strong market-wide pullback rather than general volatility in MERL itself, which reported a lot of good looking progress in the last update.A minor point of interest - on a flight from Poland the other day, I read in Wizz Air's magazine they are upgrading one of their routes from Warsaw to Denmark by putting a larger plane on the route (230 available seats instead of 180 per trip) due to the demand they were seeing for family visits to Legoland.
Ripley94
29 Jun 2017
limit lifted. Been trying to pick up for 480 for a week or so .. Got them today 1st buy.
kjbenja72
14 Jun 2017
Re: Trading Update (slightly edited) I found this is Berlin to with Little Big City[link]
Hardboy
14 Jun 2017
Re: Trading Update (slightly edited) Eadwig," "Our new brand 'Little Big City' will open in Berlin in July." "Yes they mentioned the Little Big City Brand, and there are others planned. Not exactly sure what it is though. Project 4 is not the same thing; and it could have been later this year that the announcement will be made. (The Chairman's delivery was sending me to sleep.) He definitely said the NEC; and may have mentioned which event, but I wasn't concentrating enough. Most of what he'd said up to then was all out of the report. "Can't you afford your own tea and biscuits? " or pens. They had nice bright orange ones. Always nice to feel you are getting something extra from the shareholding.I think AGMs can be most of use for the smaller companies (though not always.) At one (I'd better not say which one) I was talking to an NED about the ethics of NEDs owning shares & he said he wished he could buy more but they seemed to be in a permanent closed period with price sensitive news always due to be released. I went home & topped up. You're probably right about the drop if the interim figures disappoint as they probably will; but they did not make any revision to outlook figures in yesterday's statement; but I'm definitely taking a long term view (3+ years) on this. "PS. Did I understand you correctly that you are 100% out of ESP now?"Yes - got 114; and made the equivalent of just over 10% p.a. on the investment, so an adequate one. Thanks for introducing it to me. I like the business and they will probably do well; but there is enough doubt about how foreign student numbers will be affected; and it is a competitive field. I'll certainly continue to keep an eye on it. And I am trying to follow my policy of going for predominantly international businesses at the moment. (Having said that my latest purchase is Biffa - where there's muck there's money - so I'm not following my own principles.)
Eadwig
14 Jun 2017
Re: Trading Update (slightly edited) Hardboy, "He said they had a "Project 4" new business area planned, which will be announced at the NEC (I think he said next year.) "Not named, but a new product/brand they were very excited about for THIS year was announced in last year's results. CEO said something like, 'I wont tell you about it now, we have to leave some good news for later in the year'. When asked if it was something to do with the NEC he sort of said yes but that was enough about it for now.So, sounds like it could be the same thing and unless delayed, I think we'll hear about it possibly at the interim results stage early August. Odd time of year for a new brand announcement though - maybe (another) indoor attraction?.Did you hear anything about this? "Our new brand 'Little Big City' will open in Berlin in July." That was in the trading update RNS.I haven't heard anything about it as yet and assumed this was what the CEO was talking about until your statement about 'Project 4' quoted above.Good feedback from the AGM. You seem to becoming a regular at such meetings. Can't you afford your own tea and biscuits? I think there's a video call around somewhere of a presentation (possibly being done in Berlin today, I think I read), but haven't had time to search it out yet. May not get time if it only stays up for a day. If anyone comes across it and can save it somewhere, I'd appreciate it.Eadwig.PS. Did I understand you correctly that you are 100% out of ESP now?PPS. I called the big drop on the trading statement announcement (post 6th June). It could happen again at the interim results when they'll have some figures. I've got my limit order set already @465p. I think @475p may be more realistic, although there's always the chance of a FTSE 100 pull back dropping everything a few percent at some point (soon, I hope, from a personal point of view).
Hardboy
13 Jun 2017
Re: Trading Update (slightly edited) Eadwig,"The update was never going to say anything else."Yes it was as expected; and the encouraging thing was how positively the year started before the terrorists had their effect. I've just got back from their AGM. (it was just down the road for me.) Nothing particularly informative. All shareholders were given a pass to the park & refreshment vouchers for the rest of the day (I didn't bother.) Questions were not particularly taxing - one asked why it was an afternoon meeting as it gave him less time to spend at legloand. Apparently it is normally a morning meeting, but one of the NEDs was flying in for the meeting and could not be sure of getting there till the afternoon. One shareholder complained that he thought debt was too high. No plans to reduce debt, however. They are comfortable with the current level (at current interest rates) and will be maintaining it at around the current level (proportional to profit.) Sir John was impressive (if a little soporific) as chairman, but handled everything very well. Nick Varney gave an impressive presentation about last year & the outlook. (He'd have been more impressive if he'd bothered to put on a tie, but I guess the leisure sector lends itself to a leisurely look.) He started off by saying that losing a bit of business was a minor consideration compared to the victims of terror, but he's been in the business 30+ years and been through a lot of terror waves. All have been relatively short term in effect. The planned and potential growth of this business is amazing. He was going through the planned openings and developments of the coming 4 years. There was one thing which he mentioned which I had not heard before which could be very exciting. He said they had a "Project 4" new business area planned, which will be announced at the NEC (I think he said next year.) So if growth is not enough to cope with with theme parks, hotels, and other attractions, they have something else up their sleeve. I've never had enough time to go to AGMs, but I'm making a concerted effort to go to as many as I think will be useful; and I'm finding them, in the main part, great at getting a real feel for the true optimism of the board; and occasionally one picks up a real gem. Despite the fall today it is probably as bit overpriced, but the growth potential is worth it.
Eadwig
13 Jun 2017
Trading Update (slightly edited) I'm surprised it took this update for the price to drop so sharply. It was never going to say anything else as far as I could see, given previous trading announcements and London still being so important for group revenue."Merlin Entertainments plc - AGM Trading Update 13 June 2017Group trading year to date broadly in line with expectations outlined 2 March 17.2020 milestonesWe continue to make good progress towards our 2020 New Business Development milestones. Specifically:* c250 accommodation rooms have been opened so far in 2017, in LEGOLAND Florida and LEGOLAND Billund, with further rooms scheduled this year.* Three Midway attractions have been opened to date, comprising LEGOLAND Discovery Centres in Melbourne and Philadelphia, and Madame Tussauds Nashville. SEA LIFE Centre Chongqing will open on 15 June and, * Our new brand 'Little Big City' will open in Berlin in July.* LEGOLAND Japan opened on 1 April ahead of schedule and on budget. * Our international New Business Development continues to contribute strongly to Group performance and we remain confident in the delivery of our 2020 milestones.Current tradingIn our Midway London Division, trading in the early part of the year benefited from stronger foreign visitation to the UK reflecting the more favourable FX rates. This continued in the immediate aftermath of the Westminster attack on 22 March, although the incident did result in a softer domestic, day-trip market. The subsequent attacks in Manchester and London over the past month have resulted in a further deterioration in domestic demand and, given the typical lag between holiday bookings and visitation, we are also cautious on trends in foreign visitation over the coming months [based on prev. experience].Trading in the LEGOLAND Parks and Resort Theme Parks Operating Groups has been in line with expectations, although a number of our UK parks have been adversely affected in recent weeks by the terror attacks heightened security. Nick Varney, Chief Executive Officer, said:"I am pleased that we are making good progress towards our 2020 New Business Development milestones. That said, the impact of recent terror attacks on our London attractions is unclear at this stage. What is clear however is that London has bounced back before, and will do again. I have every confidence in the longer term resilience and growth trajectory of the market. London is very much open for business, welcoming visitors from the UK and from around the world.Merlin has a diverse portfolio of global brands with over 70% of 2016 profits from outside the UK and this proportion will only grow over time as we continue to invest internationally. I remain confident in the company's underlying growth prospects."Merlin will report 2017 Interim results on 4 August 17.
Eadwig
13 Jun 2017
Back In @488p Back in today with a single tranche as previously discussed. The first of many more I hope, in what I see as a long term growth play.My holding average is now @338.38p
Eadwig
06 Jun 2017
Re: Big Dip? Its due to the act of terrorism in London, MERL's single biggest market.I'm afraid I sold after Manchester, expecting another attack during the election campaign which would impact the share price even harder. I expected to be buying back in around now at maybe @475p or maybe @490p or maybe even @450pThe pleasant surprise, in many ways, is that the @523p I received in the first minute of the first morning after Manchester is all the price has dropped to at the close last night.That's showing just how resilient MERL is. Unfortunately, they are going to get hit badly by these attacks. Maybe the hit will come at the next Trading statement, possibly at the next full year statement also. As we saw from the last results, it wont just be London or British based revenues that take the hit, but right across Europe. Unfortunately we can expect the same in the German elections, I hate to predict.I'm not proud of myself for selling out, which is why I didn't post it up.But finance is finance. I'd happily have taken on any one of those three attackers myself with a baton, in fact I would have welcomed the opportunity if the incident had to happen anyway, but I'm not taking on terrorism with my daughter's future welfare. If I trade it to make a profit, it may be callous but its just one way of beating the pigs that do these things.I'm now out of MERL completely and have to await a better re-entry point. The price after Manchester never dipped below about @510p, by the way. Extraordinarily robust given the impact on revenues the attacks in Europe and Orlando cost MERL last year.
Hardboy
05 Jun 2017
Re: Big Dip? After the recent rises I'm guessing it's just some profit taking. The price is higher than it closed last Tuesday, so it's hardly dropped out of the sky.
kjbenja72
05 Jun 2017
Big Dip? Why the big dip today?
Hardboy
11 May 2017
Alliance Trust Review Legoland owner Merlin Entertainments (MERL) is trading at all-time highs above 500p, driven by a recent bullish research note from investment bank Morgan Stanley which says a plan to add themed hotels to its parks are ‘underappreciated’ in both their profitability and scale. Other analysts are more sceptical. We even note chief new opening officer John Jakobsen sold more than £750,000 worth of stock in late April; not exactly a vote of confidence in the business.THE BULL CASEMerlin operates well-known UK attractions including Alton Towers, Chessington and Thorpe Park.With a target price of 580p, Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo helped sparked interest in the stock on 26 April as he asserted Merlin’s earnings could jump by 26% over the next five years.He says: ‘Themed hotels provide an immersive experience for families and premium revenues to standard hotel offerings.’According to his analysis, the company could generate £340 revenue per room per night – three to four times higher than the market average.The firm has an ambitious rollout strategy as it aims to open 40 new Midway sites, four Legoland parks and 2,000 hotel rooms by 2020.Rollo says this should drive mid to high single-digit percentage growth in annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.He reckons that if Merlin exceeds these rollout targets, the share price could rally to £10 by 2022, but notes there are existing headwinds that threaten its performance. These include geopolitical risks and potential terrorist attacks.The company’s reputation was also damaged by the Smiler rollercoaster crash at Alton Towers in June 2015.THE BEAR CASEBerenberg analyst Owen Shirley has a ‘sell’ recommendation and a bearish price target of 375p. He recently cut like-for-like growth forecasts.Shirley is cynical about the company blaming a weak tourism market for its underwhelming performance in 2016, noting overall holiday visits to the UK rose 11% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.He also fears the Legoland parks, which he concedes have enjoyed an ‘exceptional’ historical performance, are running out of steam and notes free cash flow generated by the business remains negligible.As around two-thirds of Merlin’s business is overseas, another potential risk is a recovery in the strength of sterling which would act as a headwind to earnings when translated from other currencies for accounting purposes.
