Hardboy
18 Oct 2017
Re: Heartened/Thoughts Thanks for posting that Eadwig. Some good points in it. But I'll correct this bit."massive hike in business rates and min. living wage hikes. Considering a flat year compared to last in the light of that isn't so bad,"In fact they are not predicting a flat year in comparison with 2016, they are forecasting like for like sales will be flat (which are completely unaffected by overhead costs.) Their forecast for EBITDA was £470-£480m which is 4.5% up on last year. His point in relation to that is fair, Anyway, assuming the EBIDA rise is reflected in EPS, that would give an EPS around 22, and a current PE of 16.8, suggesting the current level is about right. I see a couple of brokers have revised their target prices to 480 & 440, so they think there is some good upside from here; and that still values the business as having some growth in it.Glad I topped up yesterday, but think this is a wait and see share for me until the next up date, which should include Halloween & maybe Christmas Bookings.
Ripley94
18 Oct 2017
Re: NEW ARTICLE: How far will Merlin Enterta... Today.Can not open the link games.. but this article from this site editor don't look good.Suggesting chart indicates 335p & 313pCharts ???
II Editor
18 Oct 2017
NEW ARTICLE: How far will Merlin Entertainments fall? "LSE:MERL:Merlin Entertainments'Â share price enacted a bit of a snow job on traders, using two differing feints to lure investors.Firstly, on 5 October, the share price broke the obvious downtrend since June 2017. For many people this is ..."[link]
gamesinvestor
18 Oct 2017
Lego article might be of interest to some here :-[link]
Ripley94
18 Oct 2017
Re: limit lifted. Most posters did catch the falling knife and by the handle it appears one day on.So much for the learned brokers.
Eadwig
18 Oct 2017
Heartened/Thoughts Even more heartened to try and buy some more this morning if I can get a price below @360p. Very little time, so have copied this from an answer posted elsewhere, if the language seems a little strange:"I'm not trying to sell the company to you, but I feel heartened this morning about my own thesis having had more time to read the trading statement. If I do buy more it they will definitely be for trade, as I would then have 5 full tranches. I want 4 eventually. Big negative not mentioned, by the way, businesses are looking like they're going to get ANOTHER big hike in UK business rates next year, not to mention a general rise by September RPI of 4.1%. MERL was subject to the double-whammy that hit UK retail so hard in the last year under this government, I.e. massive hike in business rates and min. living wage hikes. Considering a flat year compared to last in the light of that isn't so bad, I guess. Meanwhile, the UK becomes less critical to the numbers daily.Examples of good news from the statement:" Acceleration in accommodation roll out, with 2,000 rooms expected over the 2018-21 period (2,000 over 2016-20 previously)."The hotel side of the business has been by far the most profitable with the better margins (and that IS an area of improvement required. To be fair, the management does at least say they are continually working on efficiencies, but the FY figures will tell). The more they go down the hotel route, the sooner they become a take-over target (which I have always ultimately believed they will be. I've NEVER owned a hotel chain that hasn't ended up being taken-over, except one, IHT, which I sold on a big surge on a take-over rumour)."Merlin today announces it has entered into two global exclusive IP partnerships to develop location based entertainment:· Bear Grylls - Partnering with the world-famous survival expert, international TV host and bestselling author, 'The Bear Grylls Adventure' will be targeted at the adventure-based experiences market, with the first attraction to open in Birmingham, UK, in 2018.· Peppa Pig - A multi-territory agreement with Entertainment One (eOne) to open Peppa Pig themed attractions and accommodation. Peppa Pig is one of the world's leading pre-school brand properties with over 1,000 licensees across 60 countries. The deal which excludes the UK gives Merlin exclusivity in all territories other than China, where the licence is granted on a non-exclusive basis."If you have a young child as I do, you'd know that Peppa Pig is one of the biggest international merchandise lines that all tie in with media. As I have said before, I believe MERL is a play on world population growth, and an early beneficiary from that obvious thesis, because it is aiming at the growing younger generation of children and their parents. Bear Grylls I know nothing about, to be honest and leaves me indifferent at the moment.MERL: "These agreements will support Merlin's roll out programme, further diversifying our business by brand, customer type and geography, and extend our reach into the adventure-seeking and pre-school markets"I have to agree with the above, and the quicker they diversify geographically, the better as recent statements have shown.The below further underlines rguments i have made previously. I must say, there is a feel of bad luck around MERL though, and I don't mention luck lightly in any kind of business analysis. However; all after floating in late 2013:1). The tragedy at Alton Towers, probably their flagship theme park and what they are best known for in the UK while the Uk was still by far the major part of their market (June 2015). 2) The semi-collapse of the Turkish economy and social structure in 2016; immediately after opening their Istanbul Mdme Tussauds. (Tui report a huge come back for Turkish tourism, by the way, this morning, but unsure if the includes Istanbul. More packages to the South I would think).3) The mass shoo
II Editor
17 Oct 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 18/10/2017 " MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS (LSE:MERL) If the UK Government are looking for folk to handle Brexit negotiations, the nice people who manage share price movements must surely figure high in their list of candidates. If we review the sleight of hand ..."[link]
Hardboy
17 Oct 2017
Re: Added today @375p I skipped through the statement at 7
0 this morning, and thought the market is not going to like this, so I cancelled my limit order to buy at 440; and waited to see what the market reaction was. I think & hope the initial reaction was overdone, so I bought more at 359 (can't quite match Hang on - Kudos!) Then been busy all day. I need to read the statement in more detail; but my impression is things have been below expectations - with valid reasons, and rather than just put out an update which they knew the market would pan, the BoD have come up with a bending of strategy to show they are moving in reaction to market forces. So that is a good reaction. (whether it is the right reaction will be seen over the longer term, but personally I didn't buy into Merlin to invest in a Hotel Chain!)Having said that they've announced an increase of 12.4% in turnover. Not many FTSE100 companies are doing that. OK like for like income was flat; but if we are saying the terror affect in London was greater than last year, and the hurricanes in Florida were worse than last year, then is like for like income being flat a bad performance? It probably indicates an underlying growth. And as the business expands geographically so individual local events should have less dramatic effects on the Group figures. Optimistic at these prices.
II Editor
17 Oct 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Can Merlin bounce back from 20% slump? "Another day, another profits warning on the @GB:UKX:FTSE 100. It's the third trading day running there's been a 20% plunge within the UK's blue-chip index, following yesterday's travails at medical product supplier LSE:CTEC:ConvaTec.Today, it's ..."[link]
City Ranger
17 Oct 2017
Webcast Having listened to the Merlin presentation this morning, it seems that the company are making some wise choices. Reallocating money away from Midways, focusing on expanding profit making accommodation and increasing the productivity of back office functions. However, the timing of the flex in strategy seems to have been unexpected with an unusually limited number of questions at the end of the webcast. In the next few days it will be interesting to see how the market reacts and if broker downgrades follow.
shabby 2 sox
17 Oct 2017
Re: Added today @375p Also added at 3.75 for long term growth. Burgeoning global families with disposable income will drive demand for attractions and growth in my opinion.
rhino666
17 Oct 2017
Re: limit lifted. Oh dear - price down to lows not seen since the float at £3.15.Can't deny that it has disappointed but like the company so have added.
Eadwig
17 Oct 2017
Re: limit lifted. "Blaming weather for slower growth , no longer a growth stock which was the attraction."They make it sound like MERL have made up the stories about an extraordinary hurricane season impacting Florida.Still, they certainly don't do themselves any favour in the tone of their updates. Price is dropping back towards @360p again, I may go another tranche if it gets back to @355p - today's low.
Eadwig
17 Oct 2017
Added today @378p @378p Net of all costs. Quite lucky, because this was a pre-set limit order @430p, obviously didn't expect such a big fall, but it does reflect the markets high valuations and their punishment of anyone who doesn't meet expectations.Overall holding average of @409p. Anyone who wants into this long term growth story, this is the opportunity. If MERL continues to be impacted by terrorism even as it expands across the globe, then everything is. Every new opening diversifies their revenue streams, which can only protect against these unfortunate events.Eadwig
Hang in to the bitter end
17 Oct 2017
Re: limit lifted. Rightly or wrongly ... have topped up at 357.
