Eadwig
03 May 2017
Re: Buy now Hardboy,You echoed my own thoughts, which I forgot to add to my last post. If I thought MERL would only double my money in 10 years I wouldn't be anywhere near them.If they have only doubled in 5 years I'll be pretty disappointed, although that would achieve my minimum target. Not that their last results, just looking at the hard numbers, suggest a stellar performance can be expected going forward - which is why I was expecting a drop in share price as people re-assessed the P/E multiple they are carrying.It seems the analysts are actually doing their job on this one in the main and looking beyond the numbers. Unfortunate for my strategy, but just goes to show how hard amateur stock-picking can be these days.
Hardboy
02 May 2017
Re: Buy now KJB,"in about 10 years the shares will be worth approx £10."So very nearly doubling in ten years. That is equivalent to an annual increase in price of about 7%. Personally I hope they can achieve a better growth return than that.
Eadwig
02 May 2017
Re: Buy now kjbenja72,I think you're right about the hotels increasing returns (the proof is already there in the last results). I'm still waiting for a pull back before adding though, personally.It might be a long wait (months) because the markets seem to have suddenly found favour with MERL, but there will be a market-wide cotrrection at some point, and as a FTSE 100 constituent MERL wont avoid it. Mind you, if that doesn't happen soon, I may well find myself adding at today's price -@510p - and think I've got myself a bargain.
kjbenja72
02 May 2017
Buy now Buy now before the many hotels attached to the theme parks open. Once this happens the profit will come rolling in and I project in about 10 years the shares will be worth approx £10.
Hardboy
27 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy Eadwig,Just received this morning Borkers' updates. The only relevant link I can find on it is how to unsubscribe, which is not what we want. The initial bit comes in table form which will not copy & paste easily, but you should be able to work it out. After the table of broker updates there is a list of corporate news. It's quite useful. If you're interested, I'm sure that digging round on their website may get you somewhere. There's one on Merlin - Barclays re-iterating its Overweight Recommendation with a target of 575 Here's the start of it: Hope it's of interest/use.Guardian StockbrokersBroker Upgrades and Downgrades & Key UK Corporate Snapshots27 April 2017UK Broker Upgrades / Downgrades Code Company Broker Recomm. From Recomm. To Price From Price To Upgrades AIR Air Partner Plc Liberum Capital Buy Buy 133 140 BLT BHP Billiton Plc Citigroup Neutral Buy BME B&M European Value Retail Deutsche Bank Buy Buy 330 360 CRDA Croda International Plc Deutsche Bank Hold Hold 3400 3500 ELM Elementis Plc Berenberg Hold Hold 305 315 LRE Lancashire Holdings Ltd Peel Hunt Add Add 710 725 STAN Standard Chartered Plc Deutsche Bank Sell Sell 620 642 TYM Tertiary Minerals Plc Berenberg Buy Buy 330 390 Downgrades BLT BHP Billiton Plc Deutsche Bank Hold Hold 1460 1450 GSK GlaxoSmithKline Plc Deutsche Bank Hold Hold 1720 1700 Initiate/Neutral/Unchanged ANTO Antofagasta Plc Barclays Capital Equal weight Equal weight AV. Aviva Plc Credit Suisse Outperform 640 BLT BHP Billiton Plc Credit Suisse Neutral Neutral 1380 1380 BOO boohoo.com Plc Barclays Capital Equal weight Equal weight 180 180 DGE Diageo Plc HSBC Buy Buy 2600 2600 GSK GlaxoSmithKline Plc HSBC Buy Buy 1970 1970 GYM Gym Group Plc/The Berenberg Buy Buy 300 300 IBST Ibstock Plc Barclays Capital Overweight Overweight 245 245 IHG InterContinental Hotels Group Plc Barclays Capital Equal weight Equal weight 4000 4000 JRP JRP Group Plc Credit Suisse Neutral 135 LGEN Legal & General Group Plc Credit Suisse Underperform 215 MERL Merlin Entertainments Plc Barclays Capital Overweight Overweight 575 575 MRW WM Morrison Supermarkets Plc Deutsche Bank Hold Hold NCC NCC Group Plc Peel Hunt Buy Buy 245 245 NXT Next Plc Deutsche Bank Hold Hold PRU Prudential Plc Credit Suisse Outperform 2045 STJ St James's Place Plc Credit Suisse Outperform 1240 WTB Whitbread Plc Barclays Capital Equal weight Equal weight 3875 3875
rhino666
26 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy [link] future looks good,
Hardboy
26 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy Eadwig,I get a daily e mail from Guardian Stockbrokers which gives a summary of all Brokers' revised recommendations. It takes me seconds to look at, and I then delete it. When one arrives tomorrow I will try to remember to post a link. I seem to think there was an upgrade for Merlin, but can't be sure & would not know any details now. I think the rise is due to the news must have got out that my Italian Barber took his family to LEGOLAND on Easter Monday. (You know what these Italian families are like)
Eadwig
26 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy Ah, this could be it. Morgan Stanley often carry some extra weight ...26 April. Merlin Entertainments Plc : Morgan Stanley raises target price to 580p from 560p
Eadwig
26 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy No, I don't know why either. There was news of the first Legoland opened in Australia about a week ago, but obviously this doesn't correlate.Some major news somewhere, probably an analyst upgrade that we happen to have missed. I only tend to see them if stockmarket wirse publishes them on the ii news tab - E.g.:Mon, 24th April 2017 - 09:20Credit Suisse today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Merlin Entertainments PLC (LON:MERL) and cut its price target to 500p (from 510p).I missed this one at the time I believe:Wed, 5th April 2017 - 12:40HSBC today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Merlin Entertainments PLC (LON:MERL) and raised its price target to 560p (from 530p).but even the HSBC positivity didn't lift MERL like it has been lifted today, on what looks like its going to be hefty volume too.Credit Suisse were more in line with what I was expecting too pull the price down over the summer, hence my strategy.Oh, also last weekend there was new that tourist levels were up in London, still a big factor for MERL until they become more diversified. Again, the above is what I have assumed has kept the share price from slipping, rather than causing 3%+ and well above @500p at one point today.Seems like the pattern I was hoping for my strategy has broken down. Perhaps too early to say. I'd be very surprised if the latest bottom turned out to be @470p given results held back by terrorism and not exactly any sign of that going away soon.Still, its a very long term play this so I'll sit on my single tranche for now and I'm sure I'll get a chance to get in cheaper for more at some point. If not ... well, that's one of those good problems to have, I guess.
rhino666
26 Apr 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy Good to see a big rise in SP today. Have been hunting around to find out why but no obvious news. This is the kind of level I am happy to hold this share at for ever and a day.
rhino666
24 Mar 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy So the brokers vary from a buy with a high price target to a sell with a even larger disparity low price target.I am looking forward to Owen Shirley revisiting his comments on Merlin in the near future but expect him to be quiet and possibly not heard from again. The problem with these strong analyst opinions is that the people responsible will not lose their job or likely any money if they are wrong.We, as investors are far more credible.Having made lots of mistakes on the stock market over the years, I now completely ignore stockbroker analyst ratings and predictions - it takes some of the confusion and unhealthy sentiment out of the equation.
Eadwig
23 Mar 2017
Re: Analysts and My Strategy 23rd March 2017 - 11:50Peel Hunt today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Merlin Entertainments PLC (LON:MERL) and cut its price target to 450p (from 510p).22nd March 2017 - 12:50Numis today initiates coverage of Merlin Entertainments PLC (LON:MERL) with a add investment rating and price target of 553p.
Eadwig
23 Mar 2017
London Attack To take a viewpoint purely from an investors point of view, this was the very worst news for MERL and likely to hit the share price further today, as it happened late in the market day yesterday.A double-whammy on a bad market day anyway.Literally a stones throw from the London Eye and in the very worst city for them to impact their revenues short term until such a time as their long-term plan to diversify globally has progressed much further.
Eadwig
18 Mar 2017
Re: Berenberg rhino666, "I have not bought Merlin to make an overnight killing"Agreed. I see this as a very long term growth play, not least on emerging markets and global population growth - see posts below.I will attempt to trade tranches to get my average as low as possible, and i really don't mind if that takes a year or two. As it stands, I can see MERL being 6-8% of my portfolio eventually with perhaps a 10 year+ investment horizon.And you wont hear me say that very often about a stock.
rhino666
17 Mar 2017
Re: Berenberg Merlin is not a company that stock analysts can appreciate - a lot of the figures do not make sense when applied to a stereotypical company. When the company floated I was put off applying by a raft of logical comment that somehow missed the point of Merlin. History has shown that The entry price of £3.15 was a bargain.Owen Shirley may be correct but in my opinion his valuation of the company is incorrect as backed up by a spooked market for Merlin at the moment. Take the day off and spend it with your family at Warwick Castle Owen. Look at the work Merlin have done there, enjoy the entertainment and speak to the inspiring young people that work there.I have not bought Merlin to make an overnight killing but certainly don't expect to lose my shirt either. Stand by my recent purchase and thank Owen Shirley personally for getting me a discount.
