Eadwig
24 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Hardboy: I’ve blagged my way to an invitation tot their battery vehicle charging unit launch in 10 days or so so that’ll be interesting. @Hardboy Well please do report back on that on the AFC section. I’ve posted some things up there recently although can’t remember how much and how much went on BARCplus boards. The new P.R. approach no accident, I think. The new non-exec director, who dealt with fuel cells for Rolls Royce, was brought on board and when they spoke about raising cash for the ‘Go-To-Market’ strategy, they really did mean a comprehensive approach to marketing, it seems, and have so far gone about it very effectively … including the latest cash raise (which killed the share price rise) but was an extra £0.5m thy could not have planned on just a week earlier. Products on the market for sure come Dec 6th, as detailed on the new web site (all part of that marketing mix). I believe they’ll be announcing customers that day too, but how many and in what form and for which products I’m unsure. I think there has been enough loose language to give away that there will be such an announcement, and I’d like to think that the extra £0.5m was extra funds to deal with a larger response than they had anticipated. Exciting times. My current holding average in my SIPP is just @3.85p and so I have sold several tranches for large profits already. After the fall from intraday @28p I bought some in my ISA @21.75p This was premature, and to be safe I should have waited for enough of a fall below the latest placement price for me to be able to sell at sill below that price and take 10-15%. Hard to predict though! I’m pretty sure I’ll make the money on that tranche above on or before the 6th December anyway. Except for the election (and I agree we’re going to finish up with the worst parliament pretty much ever in terms of intellect and ability) , AFC have timed this up-coming launch and publicity excellently… I’m waiting for the environmentalists to turn against H2 fuel cells by pointing out the hydrogen generally comes from cracked nat. gas. … it would be just my luck. We’ll see though. I despair of our position on the EU and our cretinous parliament, all I can do is earn as much money as I can to try and protect myself and my family from what is to come… and every chance I will no longer be able to spend as much time in Poland with them as was the case when we planned a family, buying a home there and so on … all well before the referendum was announced. I feel like I’ve been handed a punishment for having done nothing more wrong than believing politicians when they spoke of ‘freedom of movement’ and what great opportunities it gave to people. 20% devaluation of GBP just as payments were coming due on the new build home was just a start. Restrictions on movement may not cost me so much, but it may very well wreck my home life. … and i still don’t know how it will go … Good luck! We will need it.
Hardboy
24 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Hi Eadwig, good to hear from you. Good detailed analysis of things, and we seem to be thinking along similar lines. I agree on the recent H&T plunge. It’s always a worry when an official body start investigating a company for potential wrongdoing; if for nothing else the fact they they seldom rush investigations so uncertainty hangs over the share for a long period. My vague understanding of that is this part of the business was being run in line with the law till the law changed in 2018, so it’s unlikely there will be any serious breach. The business as you say is under 4% of their business and shares plunged almost 20%, so I’m sure that’s over done, but it twill probably stay depressed till the matter is resolved. I also hold AFC, so firstly I was amazed with their raft of news releases in recent weeks: up till now they’ve been rather light & inconsistent on keeping markets updated, but it seems to have had a good effect. Followed by the natural profit taking. It sounds like they are finally ready to start pushing commercial products so we’ll have to see how they go. I’ve blagged my way to an invitation tot their battery vehicle charging unit launch in 10 days or so so that’ll be interesting. As for current overall investing policy: unless it really is too good to resist I’m not buying anything till after the election & may sell things if they hit peaks. The only think is I’m not sure what sort of Government I want. Sadly I think some kind of minority Government may be the best outcome from what’s on offer; but I fear we’re heading for an even more diverse parliament than we had before the election. It also sounds as if we’ve had similar inheritance issues: I’d been running my father’s portfolio for a couple of years when he died, and as my brother wanted cash out of that part of the inheritance I could cherry pick the shares I wanted to keep. This also meant we could sell shares which had fallen between the date of death and the sale date to get a rebate of inheritance tax. I went through a reanalysis of how I invested and now run 3 separate portfolios: 1) What I’ve always done - tried to find individual companies which look to have the right business models to succeed 2) A top down strategic portfolio which came from my inheritance, made up mainly of Investment Trusts investing in markets or sectors, rather than individual shares. Occasionally I’ll pick individual shares to represent a sector - e.g. RDSB for the oil & gas sector. 3) A “pension†portfolio designed for income. I limit this to 10 shares: 5 large yielding shares which I will try to buy on a low, set a limit order for a gain of 5-15% and sit back and take the dividends till it gets there; and 5 companies with growing dividends, which may be long term holds. So I can’t offer any more clarity that you’ve already got. Good luck
Eadwig
24 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Hardboy: What’s your overall view of things? I think markets are very difficult to call at the moment with trade wars, elections Brexit etc. But I’m banging on. I’ve got hardly any UK facing shares., apart from 2 AIM shares which happen to be a pawnbroker and a insolvency litigator. Dear @Hardboy, Sorry about the long time to get back to you, busy time of the year for me. It has also been a busy and mostly successful period with shares - which has been long overdue, to be honest, I too have the pawnbroker you mention, in fact you put me on to them. I only have a single tranche held at an average of @226p from memory having traded the position from just below @300p first buy. I have it as a hedge against the economy going badly belly-up after Brexit and/or due to a global slowdown… and also a play on the gold price which it seems to follow to a great extent (more than it should, really, I believe). Still, markets are fickle things and we just took a big hit after a surprise from the FCA regarding a certain class of loans by HAT. Due to the business mentioned above, and watching real time prices in the likes of AFC and PRSM for sells at great profits, I missed adding a tranche in HAT @285p I could have got it at. The FCA thing is about a very small part of the business and they are confident about dealing with any problems it brings up so they were oversold on the news. As you might guess from companies and thoughts mentioned above, I too am finding the markets very difficult to call. I’m also in a position of having heavy financial obligations within the EU, so I’m very much having to play a hedging game through all the uncertainty (and devalued GBP) which means:- I’m always between 30%-40% in cash, a large part of that USD my portfolio has mainly stayed flat in recent months Most of my plays are in AIM or foreign companies (I.e. priced in foreign currency on exchanges abroad). I had my own portfolio fairly well balanced when my dad died and I have inherited 1/3rd of his, mostly uk-centric stocks so I’m having to take that heavy weighting into account again now. The last point was one of the reasons for one of my two long absences from the markets … which proved to be pretty costly and so I’ve also been fighting back against loss-making positions I would have sold had I been on the ball at the time but some are so far underwater now I’m having to trade them back to a reasonable level. PRSM I have managed successfully, and actually sold a tranche for 60% profit on Friday with a low holding average down from >@1300p to @815p (A lot of hard work). IQE is a company I am struggling to do the same with. Really stupid position to get into as I only ever bought them for a trade. I’m currently in for about 5 tranches and well underwater. Same goes for PURP but not so much cash involved. I haven’t even tried to trade the PURP position back, it is a long term problem and could easily fall more and I don’t want to be putting money behind too many losing positions all at the same time. I have recently added RDSB and HSBA at the other end of the spectrum. Partly because I realised I’d sold off almost all my dividend payers, partly because these pay high dividends, and partly because I can now elect to take those dividends in USD and have them paid direct into my SIPP without any fx charge, which is a way of converting GBP (buying the stocks) into USD. Cheap, but very slow! I still trade GLEN regularly for small profits on a tranche, which is easier with them because there is no stamp duty, and after they have fallen consistently that has just about kept my head above water with them in my SIPP and ISA accounts. I’ve always said GLEN should be owned with an average holding price of closer to @200p than @300p, and so it has proved during the recent global commodity slowdown. Other than that most of my hedging is geographic (India, EU, Emerging markets) or very sector specific (Cyber security, biotech, robotics) and a handful of other AIM companies I haven’t mentioned. Hope you’re well and not doing too badly in these tough markets - I’m still over on the BARCplus board on a daily basis and most of my trades and investment theses are posted over there these days - occasionally copied here if I think there is an interested audience still. I know you have a user there but haven’t visited in a while. Most of the people who post are spreadbetters but they all have real share positions too and some occasionally share their thinking in the way I do and give reasonable ideas. Lastly, I still believe in the thesis that caused me to buy MERL (even though I always thought it was over-priced) and am on the lookout for things that might help me play that - as I described in another post. DISney is the obvious one, but I missed out on a decent entry point and its hard to pick what is a good one now to start building a position. Eadwig
Eadwig
20 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Ripley94: What are you spending it on? Haven’t made any specific decision. I’m sitting in around 33% cash at the moment and have been for a while because I feel we’re due for a major correction in the global economy. Meanwhile I tend to trade smaller companies or ones I believe will do well in a downturn and steer cler of most larger FTSE 100 type companies. I have taken some on recently because I realised I wasn’t picking up divis every month (which I take and bank) so I’ve taken a couple of positions in RSDB and HSBA, both paying around 6% yield at the moment and relatively safe to come back over a business cycle if there is a big correction.
Ripley94
20 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Thanks Eadwig… I see a typo in my message sorry about that I’ll correct now. You did better then me here… This was one a broker suggested to me , unfortunately I usually lose with those and is why I started picking my own. What are you spending it on? I have about ten limits on this morning… One dealt… See how that goes.!!!
Eadwig
20 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Ripley94: I see payout from news on this site 445p … my average about 417p it appears . @455p was the final price. It arrived in ii yesterday for me also. Exactly 25% gain over 3 years for me. Pretty disappointing, MERL was one of my big hopes for the longer term. The people who have bought it are going to make a ton of cash re-selling it within a few years. Mark my words!
Eadwig
10 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Ripley94: Is there a date for pay out ? Details are all in my post at the top of this thread
Ripley94
09 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Thankyou …nk1999 This had slipped my mind ( no wonder i have hundreds of different ones ) Just checked i still have them . Is there a date for pay out ? Could not find them were i keep a log ( sometimes shares disappear after delist but i see these traded yesterday ) On brokers acc see i am up 12.24% i bought 29 June 2017 and added 30 November 2017 so better then if money left in a bank with interest acc . Might of had some divs as well .
Eadwig
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh g16cos: I hope your situation is better now; I recall you were going through a tough time. I always liked reading your posts and glad you’re back. I’ve been back a while but only posting on selected boards due to lack of interaction on most. I do use the BARC PLUS board to post most of my live trades these days where a small group of us who used to post on the BARC board and still play in the weekly COMP hang out and chat and some of us discuss some companies and trading strategies at [link] as well as macro economics and affects on markets. It has a bias towards spread betting traders, but I still post some of my investing theses which I occasionally copy here if i think anyone is around who may be interested. Typing theses out helps me think them through properly (if you can’t explain your reasons for an investment you need to think again about it) and I welcome criticism of my stock picks or trading/investment strategies for the same reasons. I make plenty of mistakes and if I’m not seeing them I want to know ASAP. Its also useful that a few of us are monitoring news with regards to a few dozen companies and funds and often alert each other when something significant has happened to a certain company or commodity, even if we’re not invested in it ourselves but know someone else is. There is also a good pool of useful links and sites listed to draw upon. Some built in to the board ‘officially’ and others posted up by the users. Its all very informal with perhaps just a dozen regular contributors, and another couple of dozen who drop by now and then. Anyone reading who feels other boards aren’t giving them what they want should take a look, it may be a useful, free site to you … and if it isn’t you don’t have to stay!
nk1999
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh @Eadwig, @Hardboy, @rhino666, @Ripley94, @Uncle_Doug, @Hardyboy, @g16cos, @Bill1703, @Radaking, @nk1999 It is great to hear from you guys. I sorely miss the discussion boards that ii.co.uk had earlier, where I could share and benefit from the views of more knowledgeable investors like you lot. Frankly I have visited Discussion board in its new Avatar after a long time. As for Merlin, sadly I sold before the offer was announced. However I cannot complain as I bought around 330p and sold over 410p. Good luck with your investing. It continues to be an interesting period. Merry Xmas to you all, in case we don’t get in touch before that. Cheers.
g16cos
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Good to hear from you and the others again. It’s been a long time; I don’t really post much now. I agree with Eadwig in that Merlin has been bought out cheaply. Nonetheless, I received a fairly solid return and can’t moan much. Looking to invest proceeds elsewhere now but I have to say I’m sitting in quite a bit of cash right now. I hope your situation is better now; I recall you were going through a tough time. I always liked reading your posts and glad you’re back.
Eadwig
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Good to hear from you all, especially those fellow travellers that were invested in MERL. I hope I didn’t miss any, there is a limit to how many people you can tag in any one post I’ll get back to the wider-market stuff when I have time (I’m leaving the UK for 2 months on Saturday) and hopefully one or two of the others that I tagged in the first post may have responded by then also. As for MERL some of you may remember I was always 'trading around a position’based on the undulating chart and particular sensitivity to analyst reports and price targets. As it happened I was 6 tranches in when MERL were on their last upswing in price and I sold 3 on the way up to take my price average down, but then the bid came in, so I kicked myself a bit, had I seen it coming I’d have made a lot more. Not that there was any pre-indication of interest … Hardboy: I confess I got out of Merlin when the takeover was announced back in August @ 452.2. Despite dealing costs and the extra little bit I would have got hanging on I think I made the right call. Due to market difficulties and fears about the global situation, I’m sitting in about 40% cash right now which is why I’ve waited to the bitter end to get paid off (also initially I was hopeful there might be a counter bid, even though management appeared to capitulate all too easily to the first offer, presenting us with a fait accomplis more of less. The money would only be sitting in my trading account anyway so I thought I may as well squeeze every last penny. Even 3 tranches represented about 6% of my trading portfolio value so 25% isn’t terrible. It just fell short of my expectations over a 5-10 year investing horizon, a much longer period than I usually commit to, and, other than Disney, I see no other way to play this particular thesis (media/tech/physical entertainment combined plus a growing middle class with disposable income in emerging markets and changing tendencies for people to spend on experiences more than material things) … and I badly missed the bus on Disney. Should have bought before the Fox takeover. rhino666: What happened to LK Hyman? - I particularly miss his wit and sound judgement Last I heard (quite recently) he was alive and well and posting on the F.T. web site. However, just before the changes and everyone disappearing, I believe he had pretty much divested himself of his portfolio for IHT reasons and so it might also be he no longer spends so much time following stocks anymore. As I said, I’ll get back to the local Brexit and Global slowdown conditions and consequent market decisions at a later date… a big topic indeed and much to be discussed in terms of how to play the situation investment-wise. I must warn you though, having been caught with a young family in Poland while still resident in the UK, and then inheriting a portfolio of mostly UK-centric stocks after divesting myself of all similar stocks, most of my thinking has been along the lines of hedging against disastrous FX scenarios and damage limitation. With only moderate success, I might add. All the best for now P.S. Special thanks to @g16cos who posted my circumstances and reasons for going missing in action under the MERL tag. Hopefully people saw that and understood.
Uncle_Doug
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Never bought MERL but always watched with interest over the years. Still read the odd post hereabouts. This platform’s a a shadow of what it used to be. iii really screwed up a once great forum.
Suggest you all put your MERL money into one of mine and a similar EPIC - MER.L. I foresee good things coming for Mears Group.
rhino666
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Hi Eadwig/Hardboy Good to hear you are both doing well and better than me with MERL. It was looking pretty dire up until the recent accelerated price activity with the proposed takeover. I ended up slightly in profit but lost a bit on the first shares bought in March 2017. I bought because I liked the company and in particular their ideas and activity at Warwick Castle which was a favourite haunt of mine when I lived in that area. Missing the old forum and quite a number of the contributors. What happened to LK Hyman? - I particularly miss his wit and sound judgement. Still trading occasionally through iii but if I was to judge them by the way they treated/destroyed our cosy little forum, they would have been kicked into touch a long time ago. Best wishes to all
Hardboy
07 Nov 2019
The end is nigh Hi Eadwig, Good to know you’re still alive and following investments. I confess I got out of Merlin when the takeover was announced back in August @ 452.2. Despite dealing costs and the extra little bit I would have got hanging on I think I made the right call. Like you I had hoped for great things from Merlin, so was slightly disappointed, but my overall return worked out around the equivalent of 16% p.a. so not too displeased. I’d almost forgotten this discussion board was still active till your message popped up in my inbox. What’s your overall view of things? I think markets are very difficult to call at the moment with trade wars, elections Brexit etc. But I’m banging on. I’ve got hardly any UK facing shares., apart from 2 AIM shares which happen to be a pawnbroker and a insolvency litigator. Maybe that reflects my view of where the economy is headed with either of the 2 leading candidates for PM in charge. However I’m still finding a few interesting investments, and recently I’ve been doing very well with a couple of my favourite investments - Porvair & Manolete, both of which are trading relatively volatilely in a set range - buying at the low of the range, and selling 90% of the shares near the top that way I’ve been increasing my overall stake in the companies for no extra money & making a few bob too. Auto-Trader (I guess that is UK focused too) is one of my most recent investments, so nice to see their interims this morning. Good luck.
