hedger123
31 Jan 2018
Re: Quarterly Report Amazing turnaround here. Should be over £1 when you add up the parts. And that values GSP at zero when reality is that it’s 3 times bigger than Makhado. Once the mining rights are granted then we can start adding that to the valuation.
2bozmo
31 Jan 2018
Re: Quarterly Report Could be an interesting quarter, hopefully1) confirm take off agreement - Mittal/Glencore in frame;2) get land access for remaining farms - finalising legal process3) iwul for Vele (and hopefully sell it)4) get NOMR for 3 mines in GSP
The buzz
31 Jan 2018
Quarterly Report Well this was an upbeat report! At the moment (08:24) the MCM share price has already moved to 38-41p. It is not surprising that the share price has gone up - what is surprising is the continued low valuation being put on the shares. The main news being that the Uitkomst Colliery has had good production (up 12%) this quarter.These seem to me to be the key statements:-"MarketsThe hard coking coal price continued to increase during the Quarter due to short term supply constraints owing to adverse weather and infrastructure constraints. The current international price movement underpins the tightness of world supply and, as such, is positive for longer term pricing. Thermal coal prices have also reflected more positive fundamentals in the short term with the API4 index increasing from $92/t at the beginning of the Quarter to approximately $95/t at the end of December 2017 due to increased international demand.David Brown, CEO commented:"The Company recorded significant progress during the Quarter with increased production and profitability at the Uitkomst Colliery, the successful sale of the non-core Mooiplaats Colliery and the change of name and share consolidation corporate actions. The sale of the Mooiplaats Colliery is the final step in the Company's balance sheet restructuring strategy, setting the course for MCM to become a self-sufficient mid-tier coal mining company."......."ie As we already know - the price of coal is very strong for the immediate future. The balance sheet has been sorted out. The CEO really believes that MLM has a reasonable expectation in (finally) becoming a significant player in the coal industry!The B
2bozmo
25 Jan 2018
Re: Promising Coal Price Forecast Thanks for all this info buzz. Hoping we get something positive regarding Uitkomst next week. When i've spoken to DB in recent weeks, he's always gushing about what a great purchase it's been. Hopefully that and some info on Vele, GSP mining rights, land access, 2nd CGA etc. 2018 should be a good year to be invested here.
The buzz
24 Jan 2018
Promising Coal Price Forecast S African thermal coal prices are going from strength to strength at the moment - in line with how the Australian coal prices (and demand) has been going:-[link] strong coking coal prices have now has resulted in an increase in the forecast price for 2018 from $150/mt to $170 per metric tonne. [link] the short term this should improve the income for MCM from its existing thermal coal mine and significantly improve the economics for bringing other mines on stream.The B
The buzz
19 Jan 2018
Re: Coal Prices Just realised that I gave a link for Australian coking coal prices - equally illuminating. SA thermal coal prices are in:-#[link] found this web site that gives an interesting plot of prices for the achieved export price of SA coal in 2017:-[link] does not take a genius to recognise that the price has been getting better and better. Just bumbled into this report on Uitkomst:-[link] B
The buzz
19 Jan 2018
Coal Prices My post on APF board also has a read-across to MCM. Whitehaven Coal is a major coal producred in Australia. They have just issued a report:-[link] view on the col outlook is interesting and bodes well for MLM:-"COAL OUTLOOKThermal coal prices during the December quarter remained strong and exceeded the expectations of many commentators in the lead up to the north Asian winter. A number of factors are helping to maintain these higher prices - China’s draw on the seaborne thermal coal market is steady, demand for higher quality coals from South East Asia and the traditional Asian markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan remains strong reflecting buoyant economic conditions across Asia while a number of factors including Australian industrial relations issues and poor weather in Indonesia have limited the supply response. The outlook for thermal coal in the short to medium term is favourable.Hard coking coal prices have also been strong. The potential for weather related disruptions in Queensland in the next two quarters is expected to result in continued price volatility.Buoyant steel demand, attractive steel margins and strong thermal coal prices have combined to limit the incentive for steel producers to procure SSCC additional to already committed volumes, while coal producers (including Whitehaven) see little incentive from a sales margin perspective, to switch from high quality thermal coals into incremental SSCC volumes." [SSCC = Semi Soft Coking Coal].Meanwhile SA coal prices remain strong:-[link] B
The buzz
09 Jan 2018
Re: Coal of India hikes prices The price of thermal coal is very strong at the moment. I had earlier posted a variant of this story and others on the APF web site. Other links there by Dusty42 highlight the awful weather in China giving a huge demand for fuel at he moment. The price of thermal coal from South Africa is strong, but not as high as from Australia:-[link] implies to me that more catch-up by the South African coal price is required. That said the sailing times to China are probably too long, but more supply to India would be equivalent as they would not meed to buy so much of the more expensive Australian coal.Whichever way one looks at the issue, MLM should be assured of a good price for thermal coal for some months to come. If they could sell some coking coal now they would be really raking it in:-[link] guess that this news might have been helpful in yet another small increment to the price of MLM today. One key point is that getting a strong income at this time will be hugely helpful to MLM while it builds up its strength.The B
hedger123
09 Jan 2018
Coal of India hikes prices good news, further upward pressure on coal prices[link]
The buzz
05 Jan 2018
Re: Volume I suspect that the bulk of these trades were 'pseudo' book keeping trades as I spotted at least 2 pairs of matched trades. That said it is good sign to see shares being traded. I had the same dilemma with HUM over the last few days. I was struggling to work out what was going on with all their matched trades. The market got sorted out yesterday and HUM is shooting up this morning.MLM spread still modest at 42.2-44.4p at the moment.I must say that I like the strong prices for thermal coal at the moment.The B
hedger123
04 Jan 2018
Volume 147,915 today so almost 3m shares in old money
hedger123
04 Jan 2018
Re: Continued Share Price Recovery Cheers Buzz/Boz So where does that value Uitkomst? Makhado? Vele? Let’s not forget GSP. If we are granted mining rights there then what value for MCM?
The buzz
04 Jan 2018
Continued Share Price Recovery As we anticipated, MLM's share price is slowly returning to the pre-share consolidation price. Current mid price is 43.7p - about 2.2p in 'old currency' ie pre-consolidation. I really think that if 3p an old share was a typical value for large share purchases before, then the consolidated price should be at least 60p. Alternatively, especially with the strong price of coal, the immense coal reserves, the completion of the de-risking program and a clear road map to large scale production, a significantly higher share price is warranted.I suspect that the recovery is in part being helped by corporate activity buying coal mines, eg Purchase of Glencore's Tahmoor 'coking coal' mine by GFG Alliance:-[link] bet that lots of other steel producers have been running their slide rules over various opportunities, especially after the surge in prices last year that was caused by a force majeure being declared (after cyclone disruption to the railway lines to port) in Australia. I believe that there is an intention by major coal importers to avoid being so over-committed to Australian coal as they have been in the past.The B
2bozmo
31 Dec 2017
Re: Excellent News (see today's RNS) I have Uitkomst alone valued at $50m. Coal prices continue to rally and we’re outperforming budget. Market update in January 2018 but company is extremely happy with purchaseThe Makhado project has been massively derisked, off take agreements to be announced Q1. Financing sorted Q2. Clouds were lifted this year and this is definitely happening. Vele decision will bring more clarify in Q1. Lots to be excited about.
The buzz
25 Dec 2017
Re: Excellent News (see today's RNS) Re comment about someone taking out MCM, there are clearly users out there trying to secure supplies such as Coal India:-[link] at the price just obtained for this Australian coal mine (I think its Aus$700m, plus a huge clawback on the next 2 year coal sales), and then look at the volumes and construction costs for Mikhado alone (see end of financial year presentation) and then one realises what MCM could be sold for, and that is before one takes account of the huge coal reserves:-[link] B
