smilingmickey1
10 Aug 2015
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for ... Hi "Rudolph,"For sure the building industry in the UK is cyclical. I made some handsome returns on the likes of Persimmon and Mccarthy & Stone (who were finally taken private) in the late 90's before turning to resources.I'm a relatively new investor to Michelmersh. As I understand it there has been a big drawdown of brick stock in the UK in the past couple of years and the market price of bricks has been rising, Reluctance of brick makers to invest in new capacity may keep this cycle going for a while given the still relatively small margins that can be made on establishing new capacity based on the current prices.I buy to hold, but my timescales are shorter than yours. I can see Michelmersh as an attractive acquisition to a consolidator in an industry where there seem to be quite a number of players and note the steady increase in shareholding by Hosking as being maybe a precursor to some kind of ownership change. For now, the recent election is somewhat positive for house building and construction. The Government seems intent on wanting to keep interest rates low which is bound to stimulate house ownership and maybe general construction. Securing planning permission on Michelmersh's sites seems likely to make one off gains, on top of an ongoing profitable (just) business supplying bricks. So will be biding my time for a while. I'm not a buyer of more at the current price. But a definite hold.SM
RedNoseRudolf
06 Aug 2015
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for ... A weal sell only. No doubt like me you have grappled with the numbers to try to predict profits and from there the share price. Now between increased operating profits and land sales I have no problem with a price in the 90p area PROVIDED the business environment continues to be helpful, and that has to keep going for say ten years to produce the anticipated profits the share price requires. However, if we know one thing about the UK property market, it is that it is cyclical in the extreme. I reckon we are nearing the point where the start of the next recession is closer than the end of the last. Sometime in the next 5 to 7 years the property market will turn sour, maybe sooner. What will that do to the share price? Take a look at the 10 year chart to see.I have held MBH for about 10 years. All the way down where, thank goodness, I doubled my holding. But at this level I am very wary. Although I rate it a weak sell I still hold my shares (yes, yes, I know, not very logical) but I struggle to see much more upside. I'm thinking that another land disposal may come soon (next 12 months), Charnwood or Telford, that would provide a nice jump for me to exit. But equally if I wake up some morning in a gloomy mood and the radio is going on about UK balance of payments or the like I might just prefer money in the bank.Fair enough, I'm a HOLD.
smilingmickey1
06 Aug 2015
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for ... Hi Rudolph,Agree with yr sentiments re the so called charting analysis.Still don't understand your sell rating.
RedNoseRudolf
06 Aug 2015
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 6/08... Brilliant article by Trends and Targets. For those who can't be bothered reading it the article puts forward the view that if the price goes up then it may go up further however if the price goes down then it may go down further. Quite.
II Editor
05 Aug 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 6/08/2015 " Michelmersh Brick Holdings  PLC. (LSE:MBH) Sparked a quick argument as one of us thought this was an actress' name. Amusingly, all it proved was we don't watch Coronation Street... We had two quite different calculations pointing at this ..."[link]
smilingmickey1
05 Aug 2015
Re: Hosking And another increase by Hosking today, now over 15%.
smilingmickey1
10 Jul 2015
Hosking Yet another increase in the shareholdiing of Hosking announced todayResults due later this month
Hawk Eye32
07 Jul 2015
Steep Rise in SP Nice to see this moving right direction, bought these when barclaysstockbrokers were recommending. That was Jan 2014 were laggards all of last year, thank goodness they have come to life in the past 2 months now up 25 PC good increase today in this unsettled market. Look forward to more to come if George get's it right in the budget tomorrow.
smilingmickey1
15 May 2015
Re: Hosking's holdings More stake building by Hosking who now own more than 13%.
smilingmickey1
14 May 2015
Re: All time high RednoseI stand corrected having not looked back more than 5 years!Not sure why you would rate this a sell. The share price trend seems positive as is the recent news from the Company.
RedNoseRudolf
14 May 2015
Re: All time high Only an all time high to those with short memories!
smilingmickey1
14 May 2015
All time high Usually a good sign of things to come even if we do get a set back!
Frivolity
23 Mar 2015
Today's Results. I last commented on 22 11 -2013. when I wondered if the then upturn in building could be sustained. Well it was, and bearing that in mind I feel that these results are disappointing given the fact that in the intervening sixteen months many brickworks have been quoting up to 12 months delivery for new orders.On the figures given for 2014, it would appear that there was only a stock of circa 2.5 million bricks at the beginning of the year which indicates that the Company must have entered into medium to long term contracts in 2013 in order to ensure continuity of sales BUT which would have presumably been at lower prices.Increased production will certainly help the current year as demand appears to be holding up - but for how long ? A seemingly well run company with the valuable asset of an underlying property base which will help protect it when times are less buoyant but needs to make the most of trading circumstances when they arise.
smilingmickey1
23 Mar 2015
Steady as she goes Nothing really spectacular reported in the annual results.Seems like the Company plans to completely eliminate its debt in 2015, hence only a nominal dividend reintroduced for 2014. Should be stronger sales volumes and average prices for 2015 so we can look to a significant increase in profit. One possible downside would be increased competition for euro area brick producers becoming more competitive on cost.Company seems to be doing all the right things, investing to improve operations.Maybe a bid target for a Company looking to add on high quality product lines.
smilingmickey1
12 Mar 2015
Re: Hosking's holdings Well we have a further announcement and Hosking Holdings have increased to 14%.Results due on 23rd March. One would expect the re instatement of dividend given the various positive announcements being put out by the group.SM
