fynne
20 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 “The excitement builds again†for those who like to gamble maybe… some sort of a result would have provided some optimism… but a complete duster … nm
Pro_S2009
20 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 News out today…SL-1 is a duster, oil shows but thats all. Off we go to Wild Horse-1. 480 Million barrels recoverable potential. Worth up to 320p a share. Spud in the next 3 weeks. The excitement builds again, and all those looking to buy in for Wild Horse-1 - now will be buying in.
fynne
14 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 Wouldn’t follow any of “malkies†tips … simply profiting from advertising and freebies. Anyone making money will say whatever the highest bidder offers … I would … no hesitation Either a company has the ability and resources to succeed or it’s just blagging to keep those in tow rich. September 20th is getting close … let’s see what the rns has to offer … eh ?
Pro_S2009
13 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 Bit of a comment from Malcy at 22:55 into the audio : Vox Markets Ascent Resources (AST) and Malcy on (EME) (SOU) (RBD) (AMER) (MATD) Read more on Vox Markets. .
Contrariwise
10 Sep 2018
Snow Leopard payoff calculation Edison estimate that the success probability of both Snow Leopard and Wild Horse to be in the region of 10-15%, which makes a big difference to the relative value case. The value the company at around 30p in this piece of research from July edisoninvestmentresearch.com Low-cost, high-impact onshore oil exploration | Petro Matad PetroMatad - Low-cost, high-impact onshore oil exploration
Contrariwise
09 Sep 2018
Snow Leopard payoff calculation In the image below I have tried to calculate the breakeven share prices that you would need to believe that MATD could achieve if Snow Leopard succeeds, in order to compensate for an expected fall in the share price if Snow Leopard fails. For example, if you believe that Snow Leopard has a 70% chance of failure and that in that event the share price would fall to 5p from its current 8.5p, what share price would MATD have to achieve in the event of success to compensate for that risk? According to my calculation from the grid below, the answer is 20.2p. If you believe that the share price will rise above that in the event of success then MATD shares are good value. Pro_S2009 estimates that success drilling Snow Leopard is worth 60p to the company, so clearly a 20.2p share price is more than achievable in the event of success, and the shares would appear to be good value. For my own part, I believe that the share price will rise far in excess of that if Snow Leopard is successful because the other wells and the region is then partly de-risked. In the image below, the columns represent the chance of Snow Leopard failing (starting at 90% and falling to 10%), and the rows going down show the price that MATD would fall to in the event of a failure. The numbers in the table are then the minimum share price that MATD would have to reach in the event of Snow Leopard success to compensate us for the risk of failure. Pick and choose your own probability of failure, and its price impact. image.png766x342 8.24 KB
fynne
08 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 The jan 2018 fund raise was for a 4 drill programme this year I believe … which has now proven to actually only one (so far?) Two possibly without problems … I hope so!! 6 wells next year ?? on past performance probably not!! confirmation you have the second rig might help … you have the cash but if you want to restore some confidence you really need to start delivering … IMO
Contrariwise
07 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 And all this for an Enterprise Value of £53m. I completely agree that this seems a great asymmetric trade. If Snow Leopard comes through then the shares trade on a good few multiples of where they are now, if it fails the price falls 30% while we await the big one. I have added more today.
Pro_S2009
07 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 Yes 2 this year. New schedule should be something like below, for now. DRILL 1) Snow Leopard-1 well (Block V) Spudded 9 Jul 2018, 70 days max to complete, “results expected mid Septemberâ€. a) 90 mmbo recoverable (mid case) from two main target depths (20 mmbo + 70 mmbo) (“Snow Leopard has 2 main target sections with c.90MMbo recoverable potential [mid case])â€; plus b) There could be oil in the shallow turbidite deposits opening up an extra 200+ mmbo play even before they hit the deeper levels. (“If shallow turbidite concept is proven then a large (200+ MMbo) combination trap play opensâ€). c) Additionally, there are “3 or more additional stacked pay zones identified as potential upside.†There are also 13 or 14 prospects/leads of up to 500 - 600 mmbo recoverable within 35 km of Snow Leopard 1 on their acreage. (“Success de-risks 14 prospects/leads with resource potential of c.500MMboâ€). Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China. DRILL 2) Wild Horse-1 (Block IV) Spud Sep 2018, “results late Oct, early Novâ€. Targeting 480 MMBO recoverable. (mid case) Named by Wood Mackenzie as in top 20 exploration wells worldwide to watch in 2018. Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China. DRILL 3) Fox-1 (Block V) Spud early Q2 2019. Mean prospective resource 200 MMBO mid case. High-quality 3D seismic late 2017. Initial production of any find would be via trucking routes in the area to China. DRILL 4) New Red Deer prospect, 48MMbo recoverable (mid case) in a basin analogous to nearby producing basins in Mongolia + northern China, within easy reach of existing infrastructure. Spud late April 2019, complete May 2019 (3 weeks). DRILL 5) Block XX Near field Gazelle prospect targeting 13MMBO recoverable & rapid commercialization. Spud late May 2019 Near to existing production infrastructure which has spare capacity. DRILL 6) Block XX -TBC -rapid commercialization Spud late June 2019 Near to existing production infrastructure which has spare capacity.
fynne
07 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 All very positive stuff but seems they still don’t have that second rig …, two drills this year then ?
Pro_S2009
07 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 For me I have intimated elsewhere that delays to Block XX could be a positive thing. As said before, if they have an oil strike at SL-1 or later at WH-1, they will be in a stronger farm out position with more cash in the bank. They could, if they strike, say to a potential farm in partner, ok, we will appraise the discovery at SL-1 or WH-1 and therefore reduce your risk (and increase the selling price). Block XX money can be used for appraising a big oil strike at Block IV or V. If they drill Block XX this year - no help. If they drill Block XX after both Blocks IV and V (WH-1 and SL-1) are drilled, its much more beneficial to their negotiation position to farm out a discovery - as in use the cash to appraise and not for Block XX. So, I am looking forward to Mike Buck’s SL-1 update, as he is as well it seems. At least he appears to be looking forward to updating us,
Pro_S2009
07 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 Half year results out. [link] All good, SL-1 ongoing. I suspected that the Technical Permit (you need a drilling permit and a technical permit) was the problem for Block XX and they say regulatory problem caused the delay. Anyway, more time to assess seismic and then 3 wells back to back April onwards. WH-1, the big one, on track after SL-1 completes.
Pro_S2009
01 Sep 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019 Conference Call Audio from 10th July 2018. New link [link] .
More4us
29 Aug 2018
MATD Our base case, risked valuation of 30.8p/share #Petro #Matad Initiation of coverage [link]
Pro_S2009
28 Aug 2018
Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019
