PIE-EATER
02 Dec 2017
Re: H2Thanks for that...as you say, not clear who wrote it....pity it's not Ralph as I for one would certainly appreciate the positivity in it from him.There is absolutely no denying there is vast potential in MARS, the question (as with all companies) is how to unlock it.GLAPE(heading off to sample some belgian beer for a few days )
Hydrogen Economy
02 Dec 2017
The following was posted by Fangorn2 on ADVFN (unclear which comapany prepared it), it gives a good picture of the Board thinking and the conclusion is unsurprisingly positive H2MARSTON’S FY ANALYSTS’ MEETING: Following the release of its full year numbers earlier today, Marston’s hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments are set out below: Trading: • The group maintains that this has been a year of continued progress. Marston’s highlighted just how much it has changed since the financial crisis. • It has sold ‘bad’ pubs and built good ones. • Trading has been solid & MARS has achieved sales growth without resorting to discounting • Wet sales are outperforming food sales at the moment. Wet sales are level (prices are up) but food sales are down in volume terms. • The level of discounting has increased markedly recently. Marston’s is not taking part. This refusal to discount is helping margins but means that LfL sales are being held back a little. • Brewing has ‘had an outstanding year’. The division has a ‘proven acquisition ability’. Further expansion in this area would not come as a surprise. • MARS has virtually no retail park exposure. • The number of MRO requests has been ‘insignificant’. • Scottish minimum pricing should be either neutral or marginally beneficial. Outlook: • The group ’knows where its growth is coming from’. It will fully incorporate Charles Wells and this year will see a full year contribution from the nine pubs purchased in FY17 and from the 19 that the company has built. • Lodges in particular can take 2yrs to build to maturity. The group can add 5-10 units per annum going forward • There is ‘plenty of growth away from hotspots’. It is expanding into the latter space that has caused problems for a number of casual diners. • In the current uncertain market, the group is slowing its opening programme – though it still expects to open 15 pubs and 6 lodges in the current year • Costs are largely controlled for FY18. This contrasts with comments made by a number of other companies recently. Balance sheet & cash flow: • Marston’s securitisation does not need any near term attention and fixed charge cover has been maintained at 2.6x • The group does not want to over-service this debt structure. Some 45% of group EBITDA comes from outside the securitisation. Conclusion & Outlook: • Marston’s CEO Ralph Findlay pointed out that the group is 94% freehold, has LTV debt of only 56% and has a net asset value of 147p per share. • Whilst impacted by the wider economy, the company will achieve growth this year on the back of a full year contribution from Charles Wells, the new build pubs completed in FY17 and the assets purchased in the last financial year Langton Comment: • Marston’s numbers have pleased the market and the group’s assertion that it is at least to some extent the master of its own destiny has been similarly well-received. • Christmas will be important. It always is but, to some extent, just how trade settles down into 2018 could have an even more material impact on how MARS and its peers are viewed by the market. • Because, with the group’s shares little higher than they were at the heights of the financial crisis 10yrs ago, a material slowdown is arguably being factored in. • And this may happen but, at the moment, there are few signs that the consumer is willing to turn his/her back on the affordable treats that, at the end of the day, may be said to make life worth living. • Selling what the public wants, from well-maintained (and preferably freehold) units and at acceptable prices, is likely to remain the key to success. • Even after this morning’s bounce, Marston’s shares trade at only around 8x earnings and, though there are wider economic concerns regarding the consumer, the shares would appear to offer good value at these levels.
PIE-EATER
01 Dec 2017
Re: snippet from shares magazine TX TXCould you give me an idea of when that share split took place? It certainly has not been in my time as a shareholder..... 2012Total voting rights 2010 600kTotal voting rights now 660kDoesn't seem like a share split since 2010?ThanksPE
PIE-EATER
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Hi Soi,Just got back and yes the Mr Market does like todays RNS......quite simply because divi not cut and decent cover....nothing else really new.As others have said there may well be loads of lorries shifting beer, but if the price is the same as 2-3 years ago, somebody's margins have been hammered. That is reflected in the small uplift on the bottom line....pain shared with retailers?If MARS can push through price increases on top of wet volume increases next year then things will be far more rosy but unfortunately over the last 12 months or so Ralph hasn't inspired me and this isn't the first or second time I have said that.Todays price rise is what I said we needed when the pre-results statement was released. Now we need to hang on to it and gradually build from here. Another broken record, I know, but Christmas WILL be key.GLAPE
mexicoman
30 Nov 2017
Re: snippet from shares magazine Like I said lots of artics on the road all fully loaded with beer seen them all over country lift axles down fully loaded at 4 in the morning
soi
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Hi PEFair comments.I`m a strong believer in the age old saying " The only Truth is the Tape "MARS up 12 %, the market likes the Results.I`m aiming for about + 30 % on my long position, so around 135, could close now for 12 % and usually would but think MARS weathering the storm quite well.Maybe it will maybe it won`t.GLsoi
dregor
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results At first glance, a decent performance under a fairly difficult trading environment and , at the time of posting, it is good to see a positive market reaction on my 'underwater(beer?)' investment.Cheers!
dronaig
30 Nov 2017
MARS 1 GNK 0 Think I will have a pint tonight
Blanketstacker
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results A few moths back there was a comparatively large institutional fundraising at c130. To me, that means that is what MARS is worth, at least in the long term.
PIE-EATER
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Lets not forget.....inflation 3% (or nearer 4% if you look at RPI)
PIE-EATER
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Soi,Not had chance to fully digest statement as heading out for a bit of higher level walking around the Howgills or Yorkshire three peaks - yes, as a Lancastrian I have had my vaccination The key points for me are minuscule divi increase, presumably to try and head off those commentators in the press who are questioning whether a divi cut was looming (not too sure with 1.9x cover if memory serves), and also the generally FLAT figures, especially when compared to YNGA as I did a couple of weeks ago.I know people are going to comment about the investment which has rightly taken place but if the economy is really slowing and there is less disposable income, the MARS WILL be hit. Apart from bottled beer volumes and not necessarily profit, where is the growth in the bottom line coming from?I will review the statement again later today / tomorrow but will be interested to see other peoples thoughts on any "REAL positivity" within the statement (not Ralph just window dressing), and also the market reaction.GLAPE
PIE-EATER
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Lets not forget.....inflation 3% (or nearer 4% if you look at RPI)
PIE-EATER
30 Nov 2017
Re: Results Soi,Not had chance to fully digest statement as heading out for a bit of higher level walking around the Howgills or Yorkshire three peaks - yes, as a Lancastrian I have had my vaccination The key points for me are minuscule divi increase, presumably to try and head off those commentators in the press who are questioning whether a divi cut was looming (not too sure with 1.9x cover if memory serves), and also the generally FLAT figures, especially when compared to YNGA as I did a couple of weeks ago.I know people are going to comment about the investment which has rightly taken place but if the economy is really slowing and there is less disposable income, the MARS WILL be hit. Apart from bottled beer volumes and not necessarily profit, where is the growth in the bottom line coming from?I will review the statement again later today / tomorrow but will be interested to see other peoples thoughts on any "REAL positivity" within the statement (not Ralph just window dressing), and also the market reaction.GLAPE
idontwanttolose
30 Nov 2017
Soi Well Done Marstons!!! Opposite to GNK results (which I also hold) so WELL DONE MARSTONS!!MARSTON'S PLCPRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE 52 WEEKS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017A high quality pub and beer business continuing to deliver growth · Revenue and earnings growth Underlying Statutory Revenue£992.2mUp 10% £1,011.3mUp 8%Profit before tax£100.1mUp 3% £100.3mUp 24%Earnings per share14.2pUp 2% 14.2pUp 12% - Profit growth in all trading segments- Operating cash flow up 17% to £213.6 million, offset by initial working capital impact from Charles Wells Beer Business ("CWBB"
- Pro-forma leverage down 0.1x to 4.7x, fixed charge cover unchanged at 2.6x- Return on capital of 10.7%, 94% freehold asset base, NAV 147p per share · Improving quality of pub estate - Average profit per pub up 2%- 19 pubs and bars opened, 9 pubs and bars acquired- Eight lodges opened, taking estate to over 1,250 rooms · Market-leading beer business continues to demonstrate growth - Acquisition of CWBB- Strong brand portfolio continues to outperform market- Further market share growth, with 21% share of premium packaged ale and 20% share of premium cask ale- Supply chain expertise secures three significant distribution contracts with Punch B, Hawthorn Leisure and Brakspear, totalling c.1,700 pubs · Final dividend up 0.1p to 4.8p per share; full year dividends up 2.7% to 7.5p per share. Dividend cover maintained at 1.9x. · Well positioned for growth in 2018 - Like-for-like sales growth in pub estate in first seven weeks of period- Target to open 15 pubs and bars and 6 lodges in the coming year including our largest 100+ room lodge to date in Ebbsfleet- Integration of CWBB going well and synergies on track Commenting, Ralph Findlay, CEO said: "We have achieved strong revenue growth and higher earnings, despite increasing employment and property costs. Our business has been transformed in recent years with a significant improvement in the quality of both our pub and beer businesses. While political and economic uncertainty is likely to continue, we remain confident that our proposition founded on providing great customer experiences, the very best service and value for money, leaves Marston's positioned to deliver further growth in the year ahead."
soi
30 Nov 2017
Results HiLooks OK to me :"- Profit growth in all trading segments- Operating cash flow up 17% to £213.6 million, offset by initial working capital impact from Charles Wells Beer Business ("CWBB"- Pro-forma leverage down 0.1x to 4.7x, fixed charge cover unchanged at 2.6x- Return on capital of 10.7%, 94% freehold asset base, NAV 147p per share· Improving quality of pub estate- Average profit per pub up 2%- 19 pubs and bars opened, 9 pubs and bars acquired- Eight lodges opened, taking estate to over 1,250 rooms· Market-leading beer business continues to demonstrate growth- Acquisition of CWBB- Strong brand portfolio continues to outperform market- Further market share growth, with 21% share of premium packaged ale and 20% share of premium cask ale- Supply chain expertise secures three significant distribution contracts with Punch B, Hawthorn Leisure and Brakspear, totalling c.1,700 pubs· Final dividend up 0.1p to 4.8p per share; full year dividends up 2.7% to 7.5p per share. Dividend cover maintained at 1.9x........."ATBsoi ( long MARS )
