Marston's Live Discussion

ballymena bill 22 May 2018

Royal wedding I find it strange, that no one has mentioned the royal wedding and its impact on turnover in bar sales. People going for a great day out.Then shortly followed by the 'World Cup'. Several great days out.Marston should get a few pubs here in Northern Ireland then we can all celebrate in still.

Hydrogen Economy 22 May 2018

FT - BritainÂ’s flat beer market struggles to revive Interesting piece in the FT, not very encouraging.UK press is so imaginative when it comes to headline metaphors, beer Cos are only every frothy or flat!Britain’s flat beer market struggles to reviveConclusion unsurprisingly is that debt is a problem.And like M&B and Greene King, Marston’s is still burdened by the debt that it took on a decade ago. Marston’s borrowings are £1.39bn, including sale-and-leasebacked property arrangements.At more than six times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, that is downright alarming in a smallish business being squeezed from all sides. The phlegmatic Mr Findlay, whose is now in his late 50s and spent his early career as a geologist looking at ancient rocks, takes the long view.He says the group’s debt is long-term and secured against pubs of which 90-plus per cent are freehold. Rent and interest are well covered by operating profits. The group’s cost of capital is about 6 per cent. Its return on capital is about 10 per cent.Nonetheless, Marston’s is not going anywhere until it starts reducing its debt. And no amount of gazing in to the distance will propel it back to the forefront of British industry.[link]

paul1945 18 May 2018

NUMIS TARGET 90P

dregor 18 May 2018

Re: So where does this leave us? Worse off!

dubsport 16 May 2018

Re: So where does this leave us? As with most retailers I think the best temperature check is to pop in and check out the footfall. The bonus with Marston's, you can have a meal and a pint or two while making your observations

dregor 16 May 2018

Re: Next Interims Any truth in the rumour that Marston's are bringing out a new ale called 'Lead Balloon', is there?

PIE-EATER 16 May 2018

Re: Next Interims ATCouldn't agree more !Like you , been saying it for ages...PE

Alan Tittymarsh 16 May 2018

Re: Next Interims Told ya so. Predictable as night follows day. And predict the finals will be lousy when they come around and more excuses.. As long as this current lot (BoD) hang around there's not much hope.

PIE-EATER 16 May 2018

Nothing changes much The company have basically gambled with their egos on increasing the wet side......which of course provides the lowest margins and profits within the business - great investment (see previous posts)Have waited until now to post to see the more considered market view (down 9% - wiping out all the recent gains in the run up to these figures)The company has held (not increased divi).....has cut back on capex next year and despite saying the "right things" the market is quite rightly not impressed.As stated by previous posters today, the divi is the reason to stay and yet the holding of the interim and capex reduction are definite warning signs that there is concern.....no rush for capital gains here!If it is a BBB rated bond proxy you are after then possibly ok, if it is recovery, don't hold your breath.GLA (we might well need it)PE

FRTEB 16 May 2018

Re: INTERIM RESULTS Results mixed but overall OK. Management reducing capex in light of market risk is a positive - as in, they're on the ball and doing what is necessary to safeguard the business going forward. This is effectively part REIT and part brewery and as mentioned in the results this is a well-diversified business within the context of the sector MARS operates within. Buy for the very generous and solid dividend but don't expect much in the way of capital growth.

frog in a tree 16 May 2018

So where does this leave us? The results have had a pretty grim impact on on the sp this morning, being down 7.5% as I write.The dividend has been maintained and the yield is around 7.3% and the PE around 7.2. The question is whether we are in a death spiral value trap or whether the market has got this one seriously wrong. Any views?From my perspective the business can be seasonally affected as with all brewers but the restaurant business should protect against this. Also, the beers are fundamentally top rate products and are not about to disappear any time soon so I cannot see the business going down the pan.Is it time to pitch in or to beware? Personally, my money is going into VOD at the moment.Cheers,F

Blanketstacker 16 May 2018

Re: INTERIM RESULTS Hi OH. The dividend is the only reason to hold here, so when it passes the price does generally tend to drift downwards to a lower level than simply the ex-div price. We are headed into the 90s in June (I guess). [I should also have mentioned the mammoth debt here, though this is a necessary to run the business. Also Peel Hunt have also reiterated their 'buy' recommendation and 140 target].

dregor 16 May 2018

Re: INTERIM RESULTS They seem to be coming out with all the right noises, but I can see nothing that will give a boost to the dismal share price performance over the medium term. There are just too many mediocre pub restaurant and restaurant chains in the market place, all falling over each other to grab a piece of market share with desperate offers that erode margin. This is the market that Marstons operate in and it is tough.Glad to see a reduction in proposed capital expenditure at this time and I hope they are keeping a very close eye on the ROC of any new investment.I may be being harsh, but it all seems rather too cosy and comfortable to me. Very well paid Directors, trotting out the same old lines, but no points of difference to make Marstons a stand out company.I continue to hold for the divi for the time being, but can see little or no improvement in the sp, over the medium term.

Our Haven 16 May 2018

Re: INTERIM RESULTS Blanketstacker Do you think the market will overreact on ex dividend day rather than just price in the dividend?

Blanketstacker 16 May 2018

Re: INTERIM RESULTS Essentially we are seeing growth by the acquisition of brewing assets. As H.E. says this is inevitably leading to dilution. As long as the acquisitions are made at a reasonable price, and continue to prove profitable, the company remains a decent, reliable dividend payer. However capital gains will stay off the table. This morning is seeing a fall in price as a result of the top line of these results. However we are not yet at a buying level. The should come after we go ex-div later this month.At the moment we haveER = 7PtB = 0.76 (though this is a VERY unreliable figure)PEG = 0.46 (moving to -0.74)Yield = c7% (covered x1.8)Not too shabby really.