TX2
12 Oct 2017
Re: Peel Hunt On the subject of Marston's beer richard599 it is worth noting that Marston's also owns amongst others the following beer brands:Banks's,Jennings,Ringwood,Wychwood,Brakspear,Mansfield,Wainwright,Lancaster Bomber,Bombardier,Courage,McEwens,& the global licence to produce Young's beer plus UK rights to a number of European brands.
richard599
12 Oct 2017
Re: Peel Hunt Well this consumer is quite happy to spend his 7% divi on Marston's beer regardless of the weather. Cheers.R
nk1999
11 Oct 2017
Peel Hunt From Citywire:"Consumer concerns priced in at Marston’s, says Peel HuntThe weather meant fourth quarter trading at pub retailer Marston’s (MARS) was poor but Peel Hunt said the market has priced in any concerns about consumer confidence.Analyst Douglas Jack retained his ‘add’ recommendation but reduced the target price from 140p to 125p. The shares jumped 3.6% to 107.8p yesterday.Over the past year like-for-like sales increased 1.6% despite the difficult final quarter. ‘Trading was tough in the fourth quarter, mostly due to poor weather, but we are holding our full-year forecasts, which allowed for this,’ said Jack.‘Over the next few months, there should be greater clarity on the extent to which weather rather than consumer confidence undermined pub trading in July-September. With the shares offering a7% dividend yield, we believe the market has priced in it being a consumer problem.’ "
dregor
10 Oct 2017
Re: YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE I agree H2.It is a pretty tough environment for retail and the pub and restaurant trade at the moment. At least the announcement has stopped the substantial fall in the SP, since I bought the shares for my nearest and dearest. I was never expecting fireworks, but didn't expect quite such a fall. At least my wife appreciates the divi! As you say, I hope this is not just a temporary reprieve.There just seem to be so many options for eating out these days( many of them mediocre, I have to say.) and quite a few chains and independents have run into difficulties and are either cutting back on new openings or closing the less profitable outlets. Time for the hospitality business to take a more critical eye at its return on capital, maybe.We do not live in Marston territory down here in the south, but there is a large new build opening up not far away........think it has been delayed a bit! Almost time for the Dregors to go and pass judgement, I think.
Hydrogen Economy
10 Oct 2017
Re: YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE Seems about as good as could be hoped for given recent environment, LFL increases of 0.9 to 1.6% seems pretty good in context and new openings should help..A couple of negative notes "We completed 19 new pubs and bars and eight lodges. Openings were weighted towards the end of the financial year, and four pubs planned for September will open in late October."Looks like 4 pub completions are running late but kind of mentioned in passing, Delays are often accompanied by cost overruns and of course revenue is deferred on investments made. 4 pubs is not a big concern as long as it is not systematic."There is no significant change to the cost trends highlighted" Presumably this refers back to the statement in the Interims"As has been well documented, the sector faces continued pressure from rising costs related to Government policies and the impact of the weaker pound on import costs. We have protected a significant proportion of our cost base through long-term relationships with suppliers and fixed price contracts, actively managing the risk to our margins."This should be priced in and 5m cost savings will help.Overall market seems to like the statement, hopefully not just a short term blip.H2
PIE-EATER
10 Oct 2017
Re: YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE Almost a classic case of using 1000 words to say nothing has changed.Yes, it could have been a lot worse but I just get the impression that there is an element of drift.Ralph says profits will be higher than last year......quite possibly true, but it could be just £10k, or even £1 and that would be true.I know many of you won't like or agree with my thoughts but I just don't get any optimism coming out of MARS. At the moment I fear I am being blinded by hope and yield rather than performance and SPGLAPE
hopefull2
10 Oct 2017
Re: YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE Looks good to me so will be interesting to see what happens to the SP in the short term.
idontwanttolose
10 Oct 2017
YEAR-END TRADING UPDATE Not startling, but a better update than I was expectingMARSTON'S PLCYEAR-END TRADING UPDATE Marston's PLC issues the following update on trading for the year ended 30 September 2017. The preliminary results will be announced on 30 November 2017. TradingWe made further progress in implementing our strategy, achieving growth in revenue and earnings led by the performance of wet-led pubs and brewing. In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales were 0.9% above last year. The more subdued summer trading and relatively stronger performance of wet sales compared to food sales was consistent with the market. A disciplined approach to pricing and promotions and good cost control contributed to the operating margin in Destination and Premium being only slightly below last year despite the continued cost pressures. In Taverns, like-for-like sales were 1.6% above last year. These wet-led community pubs continue to benefit from greater consumer interest in local beers and craft drinks and the continuing development of our offers, together with the continued strong performance of pubs operated under franchise-style agreements. In Leased, like-for-like profits are estimated to be up 1% compared to last year reflecting the high quality of our Leased estate, together with licensee stability. In Brewing, we have had a transformational year including the successful acquisition of the Charles Wells Brewing and Beer ("CWBB"
business in June, and growth in distribution through entering into long term agreements including Punch B and Hawthorn Leisure. The integration of CWBB is on track, and performance is in line with our expectations. Own-brewed volumes increased 6% demonstrating the strength of our brand portfolio and the acquisition of CWBB, and contributed to market share growth in the on trade and the off trade. Estate ExpansionWe completed 19 new pubs and bars and eight lodges. Openings were weighted towards the end of the financial year, and four pubs planned for September will open in late October. In the 2018 financial year we now expect to open 15 pubs and bars, and six lodges. This modest trimming of our openings programme reflects a degree of caution given recent subdued market conditions, but our investment criteria are unchanged. Our new pubs continue to open strongly and the performance of those opened in recent years remains good and in line with targets. We remain confident that investment in new pubs and bars creates shareholder value, and is an important component of our strategy to achieve organic growth. We have a good pipeline of sites beyond 2018. OutlookSales and profits for the year are ahead of last year, and we target further growth in 2018. There is no significant change to the cost trends highlighted previously, but we have identified cost savings of approximately £5m per annum including the recently announced reorganisation of the pub operational structure, demonstrating that we are alert to opportunities to mitigate ongoing cost increases. Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer, commented:"Our priority is to focus on quality, service and standards. We are well placed to continue to implement our growth strategy through investment in higher quality pubs and bars and through our unrivalled beer brand range supported by high customer service standards.''
PIE-EATER
09 Oct 2017
Re: Year End Trading Statement Think sub 100p will crystallise many peoples thoughts.....bargain basement or cut and run? Very happy with yield but that isn't fully compensating for falling share price. Difficult one at the minute.PE
thruxie
09 Oct 2017
Re: Year End Trading Statement The chief exec's been buying recently. Would he do so if there was bad results imminent? However with Marstons currently so out of fashion I could see the price dropping anyway. I'm happy to add more on further dips.
Hydrogen Economy
09 Oct 2017
Year End Trading Statement Due out Tuesday 10th Oct. Could use some positive news.H2
TX2
22 Sep 2017
Re: CHEERS! What needs to be understood about Marston's is that it has had to reinvent itself over the last 10 years.It had a massive estate of small boozers located in the wrong areas of industrial towns in the Midlands,NW & North Wales all in terminal decline.Unlike Fullers,Young & Co & Shepherd Neame it lacked their fantastic estate of Olde World Pubs in prime locations in prosperous areas of London & South East.Marston's has had to close 1000 pubs,build a new chain of 200 food led destination pubs,refurb and expand its better remaining sites.It has had to totally change its brewery business to a specialist supplier of high quality branded beers buying additional brands & consolidating other brewery businesses to retail trade & other outlets beyond its own.Marston's has spent around £1.5 billion pounds during this process,much of it borrowed and continues to spend.The "market" worries perhaps about the level of debt,its sustainability,whether perhaps it has an adequate capital base to carry this debt,if times get more difficult,borrowing is about twice shareholder capital.Will the company need to raise additional equity capital?Is it rather overpaying on dividend in the short term?So far business is reasonable but I expect caution re share price to continue.
PIE-EATER
22 Sep 2017
Re: CHEERS! Greymonk,TOTALLY agree with your logic, just not sure how decent MARS is. Price been on a steady decline over the last 2 years, despite not having some of the issues other Pubcos have.....tied etc.I would want to see something tangible which says progress is being made before I started to top up. MARS is in an expansionary phase - buying wet sales and opening new pubs. These cost money and until this slows down or they start to make a more positive contribution to the bottom line then I don't see progress on the SP. As a holder, I hope I am wrong. A comparison might be SFE. This has disappointed the market with replacement window sales and the associated reduction in margins (effectively buying sales through supporting finance offers) and has as a result ben hammered. When it can show that when both margins and growth are improving then it will move up rapidly. MARS needs to show these improvements. I don't think MARS is a BAD company, but I do think management need to take stock of the situation and while they may think that their current strategy is the correct one, they may also have to assess what the markets perceptions are, and if necessary, see how they can tweak things to change those perceptions.As PIs we may think MARS is the best thing since sliced bread, but at the moment the market doesn't.All IMHO of courseGLAPE
Thunderbird 6
20 Sep 2017
Re: CHEERS! I also hold quite a few Marstons and they look cheap on several measures but may be not the NAV.Tangible Net Assets around 79p per share and I wouldn't get too excited about intangibles such as Goodwill.
greymonk
20 Sep 2017
Re: CHEERS! I love it when I can top up on my decent shares at these low prices. Charts are all very well but the sellers seem to just follow each other over a cliff. They trade at below NAV - They yield over 7%, The directors are buying and they have fallen because a competitor announces slightly disappointing results. I have trebled my holding and happy to buy more if they dip again
