Cygnus_7
10 Feb 2017
Re: Where next ? Arborman,I'm sure you are right that MARL does not want to sell and if an offer was made it would be substantially above the current sp. But even so, if Lidya want 100% of HM then surely, the earlier, the cheaper. It's just a matter of finding a price MARL are prepared to sell at.I think the reason the sp is not responding to what have been referred to as 'eye watering grades' is the fact that it is in Turkey where the political stability has been dodgy lately. This is clearly not an issue for Lidya but could be for non-Turkish companies.Cygnus 7
Franconia
10 Feb 2017
Re: Where next ? Cygnus - I too am slightly surprised and disappointed at the ongoing disconnect between the SP and a fair value for what we alreadsy know we have. I am certain that there will already have been alot of interest in HM from other companies, possibly Lidya too. They should ceratinly know better than most what we have in HM. Some potsers on LSE (fulmar etc) have speculated that Lidya are interested in our 100% owned Ergama asset and it just mauybe that there will be a deal for both HM and Ergama with maybe free carries (mining and production royalties) and/or cash to us....In the meantime, hold or accumulate IMO because this is worth much more than 78p a share.
arborman
09 Feb 2017
Re: Where next ? I could be wrong, I often am, but I'd imagine MARL has no desire to sell out of HM, certainly not at the current sp, double it or more and maybe they'd consider sellingWhat do it know?GLA
Cygnus_7
09 Feb 2017
Where next ? Although recent news has been good I was a little disappointed not to see MARL become re-rated somewhat higher than it is now. However, if you look at the progress since the beginning of last year it does seem to be making good steady progress.My question, if anybody has any thoughts on the subject is:We have a JV with the Turkish outfit Lidya. They clearly have the best insight into the Hot Maden project of anybody. So, with such a good project, why have they not already made an offer for MARL's 30%? It seems to me that the longer they wait, the more expensive buying out MARL will become. Am I missing something? Are there any reasons why Lidya would want to wait? Or, is MARL able to hold off such an approach for the time being?Clearly, financially I'd like them to take as long as they wish but I'm wondering if I'm missing something. Any thoughts?Cygnus 7
Fowlertheprowler
17 Jan 2017
Re: What next? A very good PEA that proves low cost of extraction and a lot of upside for resource upgrades. I'm delighted and did not expect the price to double on PEA news . What I do think it will now do is stabilise and set a new range before the next big leg up with PFS. I'm not going anywhere and think we are a prime takeover target. Discovers like HM do not come around very often and I believe we are only touching the iceberg with lots of upside to come. Looking forward to lots of positive press over next few days and presentation next week at conference. NM
MALBRAD
17 Jan 2017
What next? Shares such as Mariana are very much driven by news flow. So far, the share price has only risen a little in response to publication of the PEA, perhaps because rather a lot of shareholders who had been invested in Mariana for longer than they expected sold into the news. That said I suspect the management will do a few podcasts in the next couple of weeks and publications such as the Investors Chronicle will comment on the PEA. Consequently it is possible that the share price will rise slowly rather than start an immediate drift downwards. It will be interesting to see whether we get any explanation for the delays in the PEA (abortive sale negotiations / unforeseen changes to the extraction method) or news of when the next batch of drilling results will be released. I will be particularly interested to see what Exploration Insights (Brent Cook etc although) make of the PEA. I would like to have seen more in the PEA about the sensitivity of the IRR/NPV to a wider range of gold prices and note that the next major news about firming up mining plans now seems to be due in Q3 2017.MALBRAD
MALBRAD
17 Jan 2017
Re: AMX Malbrad MaverickMy apologies. I should have said AEX i.e. Aminex not AMX about which I know nothing at all.MALBRAD
Maverick
17 Jan 2017
Buffoon [link] is costed in.Read the RNS.Hence that's why its NPV and not GPV!Maverick
MALBRAD
17 Jan 2017
Re: Maths the buffoonThe RNS small print makes it clear that exploration costs have been excluded from the investment appraisal. The costs of building and maintaining the mine will have been allowed for in the NPV calculations I.e during the construction and commissioning period the cash flows will be negative and will then become positive as output builds up. The NPV then being the difference between the present values of the positive and negative cash flows. What is clear from comments made by Brent Cook and his colleague is that PEA's are usually expected to be over optimistic and that the anticipated return on the investment usually comes down a bit as the detailed work needed to implant the project gathers pace. That said, the next twelve month's drilling results will tell us whether we have a new commercially viable resource to the south of the current project or whether we have already hit upon what it is profitable to mine.MALBRAD
thebuffoon
17 Jan 2017
Re: Maths Maverick,Do you not think you should factor in the cost of the project !Buffy
Maverick
17 Jan 2017
AMX Malbrad Whats your take on these?Just been reading all the reports.Maverick
MALBRAD
17 Jan 2017
Re:Quiet Board My usual impeccable timing with my post about the lack of comments on his board!
Maverick
17 Jan 2017
Maths 1.73 Billion NPV Dollars.30% Marl owned.519m $ Marl owned NPV.425m £ just on this one project.Current value at 86p is £107m.Marl NPV targeted to be 4 x current MCAP ie £3.40.Exactly as was posted here recently.Happy with that.
Maverick
17 Jan 2017
OMG!!!! Time to fly. AIM: MARLTSX-V: MARL 17 January 2017 Granite House, La Grande Rue,St. Martin, Guernsey ,GY1 3RS Channel Islands Hot Maden High Grade Gold-Copper Project- PEA Results with a Positive IRR of 153%Mariana Resources Limited ('Mariana' or 'the Company'), the TSX.V and AIM (MARL) listed exploration and development company with projects in Turkey, South America, and Ivory Coast, is pleased to announce a highly favourable outcome for a Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA" or the "Study"
of the high grade Hot Maden gold-copper project in NE Turkey. The PEA was prepared in accordance with Canadian National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101" by independent mining consultant firm RungePincockMinarco Limited ("RPM".Highlights of the Study (100% Project Basis)Conceptual development for Hot Maden assumes an all underground mining operation from a decline and utilizing mechanized transverse and longitudinal long hole open stoping with engineered fill mining methods. Mining and processing rates of 0.8 million tonnes per annum ("Mtpa", 1.0 Mtpa, and 1.2 Mtpa were considered, with the base case mining scenario being established at 1.0 Mtpa.Total metal production of 2.6 Million ounces ("Moz" of gold and 142,000 tonnes ("t" of copper over a total project life of 9 years for the base case mining scenario. Metallurgical testwork, through flotation and concentration, completed to date on the high grade Main Zone mineralisation has indicated high recoveries of both gold and copper. A variable processing recovery, dependant on grade, has been applied in the PEA resulting in a project weighted average recovery of 88% Au and 90% Cu. The current Hot Maden plant flow sheet assumes the production of two concentrates on site - one standard copper-gold concentrate, and a second gold-bearing pyrite concentrate. Post-tax discounted NPV for the base case mining scenario (1.0 Mtpa) of US$1.37 billion ("B" excluding pre-development exploration costs (8% discount rate).Post-tax IRR for the base case mining scenario of 153% excluding acquisition costs. Total Capex (Initial + Sustaining) of US$261MNote that the PEA is preliminary in nature as it includes inferred mineral resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability, and as such there is no certainty that the preliminary assessment and economics will be realized. A NI-43-101- technical report for the Hot Maden PEA will be filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) within 45 days and also be posted on Mariana's website (www.marianaresources.com). The Hot Maden project is 70:30 Joint Venture between Turkish partner Lidya Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. ("Lidya" and Mariana Resources Ltd.Chief Executive Officer Glen Parsons today commented:"The potential value is finally revealed from the high grade Au-Cu Hot Maden project with these PEA results from RPM. We have always believed Hot Maden to be a world class deposit and, with a potential post-tax NPV for the base case mining scenario of $1.37B and post-tax IRR of 153%, this is certainly proven correct. The high grade nature of this resource and relatively low capital (CAPEX) and operating (OPEX) costs should result in the delivery of considerable cashflow and a short payback period (around 2.1 years, including underground mine development) on initial investment. Despite Hot Maden's rapid advancement from discovery to PEA in just 20 months, the decision by the Lidya/Mariana (70/30) joint venture to rapidly move to development is justified with the value of the project for shareholders reflected in the significant cash flow generative ability through the life of this initial current resource. The result is expected to be a low cost, low en
arborman
17 Jan 2017
Re: RNS out here it is...[link]
