tiltonboy
12 Aug 2015
Re: at 84p - what they didnt say! 305020,This is now my third largest holding behind MVI and JPEL, and will continue adding as we get closer to the next payment.
thirty fifty twenty
12 Aug 2015
at 84p - what they didnt say! A typical LXB RNS.....Good news, everything progressing but the timetable has slipped a tiny bit.When Rushden was sold in April they expected conditionality to be complete in late 2015 or early 2016, and now it is early 2016.However what i think is most telling is that they did not need to give any update on any other developments which hopefully gives some comfort that there is no contract clanger in the cupboard!So updated from previous Current NAV = 95p (previous 140p less 45p divi) "Probable" increase + 42p (stated in June 15 update) (might take 2 years) ultimate NAV = c.137p CASH in 9 mths = 40p What is it worth paying for LXB.... For 40p of CASH in 6 months I would only pay 37p today. *Rising at 0.5p a month For "probable" 92p of assets... I think 60p realisable within 12 mths - I would pay 45p today (lower than my previous analysis b/c of the letting delays)*Rising at 1p a month and then development risk for the remaining 32p of assets - I would pay 8p today(lower than my previous analysis as the lower price must be telling us something) *Rising at 0.25p a monthThus for my CASH rich porttolio I am happy to pay 90p todayand believe that the value is rising at a near certain 1.5p a month and possibly 2p a monthpurely as they build out and current tenants occupy.The returns are modest for some but better than CASHand of course there is always the possibility of a take out bid to crystalise the majority of value sooner. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL LXB is in my top5 hldgs
lambrini girl
17 Jul 2015
Re: latest IC view-SELL target 70p..
farmerdave
25 Jun 2015
Re: analysis of interims at 145p 305020Agree that there is upside here however depending on assumptions the upside gets v close to the managers payout (at 50 %) so there is a cap - do you agree ?CheersFD
Thediceman
28 May 2015
How come this is down sharply today?
coldascheese
13 May 2015
latest IC view-BUY IC VIEW:We tipped LXB Retail only last month (Buy, 145p 16 Apr 2015). While the shares haven't yet moved, the prospect of receiving a dividend equivalent to a 31 per cent yield gets our vote. Buy.
thirty fifty twenty
12 May 2015
analysis of interims at 145p Results as expected, little new news but does confirm the attractions.Current NAV = 140p"Probable" increase + 42p(might take 2 years)ultimate NAV = c.182pCASH in 2 mths = 45pCASH in 9 mths = 45p(might be slightly less but so ease use 45p again)What is it worth paying for LXB....For 90p of CASH in 2 deferred payments I would only pay 85p today.*Rising at 0.5p a monthFor "probable" 92p of assets...I think 60p realisable within 12 mths - I would pay 50p today*Rising at 1p a monthand then development risk for the remaining 32p of assets - I would pay 16p today*Rising at 0.5p a monthThus for my CASH rich porttolio I am happy to pay 151p todayand believe that the value is rising at a near certain 1.5p a month and possibly 2p a monthpurely as they build out and current tenants occupy.As a % this becomes more meaningful when the price reflects post 45p dividend.I can understand why no rush of buyers today as it is a slow burner and ultimately taking 7 years rather than 5 years but the downside I assess as very limited and upside at c.15% p.a. attractive. I think if the stock market falls generally then some of that money will find its way into LXB which offers minimal downside and good upside.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
coldascheese
12 May 2015
45p payout plus 41p further value So according to accounts there is to be a 45 p payout in June/July and according to the investment manager, a further £75.8m of potential unrealised NAV in the investment portfolio, including the further phases at Rushden Lakes. That's 41p a share. Seems pretty good to me.
thirty fifty twenty
07 May 2015
Analysis prior to AGM at 144p Summary1. LXB has managed developments successfully2. The share price chart is evidence of this success and provides support3. The Mgt team communicate regularly and clearly trying to create shareholder value4. 134p per share is backed by pre agreed sales. 120p of which will be CASH by Dec 15.5. Sense check valuations with my assumptions for remaining developments are conservative. Conclusion- the downside is limited, the current price is 80% backed by CASHand an expected results update should take the share price to 150p,and there is always the chance of a recommended bid at 160p. I have revisited my analysis ...and I have re-read ALL of LXB announcements over the last year. This is a simple summary.....1. LXB has been a success £290m invested in property in 2008,£95m has been repaid to shareholders,the remainder is worth at least £300m and maybe up to £350m [by the end of 2016]this represents compound growth in NAV of at least 9% and maybe up to 11.5% p.a. 2. the share price has risen steadily since floatation,and the 200d is practically a straight line for 5 years since mid 2010,this is quite a rarity to see.Interestingly the growth in the 200d is currently only 7% p.a.If it had grown at 9% p.a. it would be at 146p today and 166p by the end of 2016.So that would seem to set a MINIMUM UPSIDE of say 20p within 18 months. FURTHER .. There are 2 big upsides the current 200d price of 136p...A. LXB is committed to pay out CASH when it announces it results on 12 MayThus the 20p upside will be off a base of not 144p, but closer to 44p!!B. NAV has increased...by 6.5% for 3 years (2010 to 2013)then by 15% (to Sept 2014)and probably by >15% (to Sept 2015) This make sense that the NAV increases more rapidly as development come to fruition,and indeed as disposal prices are better than Book Value.Thus it's logical that the rate of growth in the 200d m.a. would also increase thus giving support to current price.3. There is a good Management Team The experienced management team raised £290m in late 2009 with a specific purpose.Since then they have returned CASH, bought back shares and given lots of information.I have not referenced back but I suspect many of the original institutions are still holders (70% with 10 holders)This is relevant as it means there are not going to be sellers and will stay in until final distributions,it also means that LXB is unfollowed as there is little free float,and it also means that mgt are not too worried re short term as trying to max value for these long term holders. In June 2010 with NAV per share at 120p they said that if all planning permissions and developments came to fruition, NAV per share might get to 175p by the end of 2016.Since then there is a potential hiccup with the ASDA development at Truro (conservatively adjust 10p per share)but the 3 big developments (Rushden, Biggleswade + Sutton) have sold for 20p per share more than expected.So when giving an update they might be able to indicate that NAV might grow to 185p by the end of 2016.And remember of course that the increase will be off a reduced price after CASH return of 100p.i.e. 44p of share price will be backed by assets of up to 85p by the end of 2016 (of which 34p is in CASH or contractually agreed). 4. CASHOf the current share price 134p is backed by agreed sales. This is effectively CASH that will be returned some immediately and some in 12 months time. 5. Sense checkOf the 4 major asset sold - the price per sq ft is £180k per sq ftassumptions that give an NAV of 175p in totalmeans that the remaining assets are roughly valued at £100k per '000 sq ftso they are smaller and probably less 'trophy' assets but even when very conservatively valuedit gives an NAV of c.185p by the end of 2016 which discounted for imminent CASH payments, contractually agreed but deferred CASH payments, a 15% p.a.
coldascheese
18 Apr 2015
Tipped in IC today-Buy Tipped in the IC today as a BUY. Asset value to uplift to around 175 p + Return of cash.IC view.Given recent disposals, we think it looks unlikely - and undesirable - that LXB will be wound up. However, given the sale proceeds already due to come in and the potential value hard-baked into the rest of the portfolio, we believe there should be value on offer for shareholders either way. Next month's review and return-of-capital-plan details should put wind in the sails of the share price. Buy.
FizzyPop
17 Apr 2015
Hi - thirtyfiftytwenty Thanks for your detailed and insightful analysis - much appreciated.Now that the dust has settled and the sp stabilised around 144-146p have you had any further thoughts on this?No doubt once the AGM is held we will get further clarification but once the first repayment to shareholders is made this will be discounted in the sp as will subsequent repayments.I do find a REIT a strange animal and LXB even more so since with no divis and no share price accumulation unlike a normal share. But I cannot fault LXB management as they have delivered.Is it still worth accumulating at this sp? I purchased 10,000 shares at 131p back in August but have difficulty in determining whether I should topup before the AGM.Regards.
thirty fifty twenty
08 Apr 2015
analysis of 2 significant disposals at 140p Summary (my analysis below) ...For me, they are worth 148p to the market today giving limited downside and modest upside over 2 years.. I would be prepared to invest 30% of my portfolio, which is see as effectively 20% CASH due with modest returns and 10% which has the potential to deliver 20% return p.a. for 2 years! ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- NAV in Sept was 135p.Since then they have sold 3 major assets with a value of £190m (they talked about 3 deals for £140m!!) so that implies better than expected, or at least they good at managing expectations! Those 3 assets they have stated will add 23p to NAV to give 158p which may take to Sept 16 to be in a/cs. So they have sold their 4 biggest developments all of which have a deferred element. However what it means is that of the 158p - 80% or 123p is contractually agreed.so buying at 140p one is in effect paying 17p for 35p of NAV,or if we give the CASH proceeds 3% return - paying 22p for 35p of assets (almost 40% discount). So in addition to the 40% discount of the 'RUMP' I think there are 3 further upsides...1 - RUSHDEN. LXB said it had several offers and it has chosen to go with the Crown Estate, that it also sold Banbury too last year at a premium price. LXB says it chose the Crown because they also want to develop phase 2 and phase 3 as high quality "destination" retail park - when stages 2 and 3 are finished LXB will get some further monies.... They obviously like working together and LXB obviously see a commercial advantage to work out in stages rather than take an 'all-out' offer from one of the others interested. Stage 1 of Rushden is 230,000 sq ft, there is total potential for 330,000 sq ft,so on a pro-rata basis, discounted by 50%, that could be a further £15m LXB get paid on top of the £70m contracted. £15m = (+9p per share) 2 - OTHER PROPERTIES -c.£50m. LXB has prioritised the best developments. Also it has managed expectations and stated that many valuations are only realised when sold. Given their delivery record I think it is safe to assume that there will be some upside to the £50m of book value for these remaining 7 developments ....- lets say 10% i.e. £5m (+3p per share)3 - the LXB team has a great reputation and delivered another (I think their3rd) plc good returns into CASH. They have ambitions for a new living well concept (effectively shared-owned residential property) and have stated that institutions are potentially willing to lend up to £100m into this concept. So it is likely that LXB will re-invent itself and this new company , even as a shell, will have some worth even with minimal assets because of the track record of the mgt team. - lets say £3m (+2p per share) ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------For CASH rich institution...So current NAV is 158p but I think these 3 conservative assumptions mean that ultimate NAV will be 172p.This reconciles with original assumptions given that deals have been better than expected then.So, if one has spare CASH in the bank, in effect one can pay 22p for 49p (a near 60% discount!).I think that such an investor would be prepared to pay the equivalent of 32p (i.e. 148p today less the discounted CASH payments). ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== For me, I invest for a greater return than 3%.So I look at LXB and see probable NAV of 172p.50p in CASH within 3 mths - pay 48p for... i.e. 4% return in 3 mths on 'certain' CASH50p in CASH within 12 mths - pay 45p for... i.e. 10% return on 'probable' CASHremaining 72p of asset worth paying 55p for.. i.e. 12% return p.a. for 2 years....I am happy to invest 10% into the mgt team to realise value from the LXB "rump".thus it could be 30% of my current portfolio (which has v.high unutilised CASH)10% retu
ICB888
07 Apr 2015
RNS 2 More Good Deals 2 more good deals announced and an upcoming return of funds to shareholders. Looks like a good year is in store for LXB.
coldascheese
02 Apr 2015
Asset value update due anytime now-buy The latest asset value update is due anytime now which should show a large increase in value.This will be with news of AGM to be held for continuation vote.A great time to buy as also a large new holder announced today.An easy gain from here with no risk
FizzyPop
08 Dec 2014
Notification of Full Year Results due Thurs 18 Dec
