thirty fifty twenty
25 Oct 2015
Re: I'm in thanks TB,that is good to know, there is a fair chance there will be an RNS this week so.Agree that it is not massive in its own right,but it does add a few pennies to NAV,and also increases the success hit rate of mgt,which should thus reduce discount to likely NAV.time will tell......All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
25 Oct 2015
Re: I'm in Not announced by the compny yet, but they won their appeal on Truro by a resounding margin. Not a massive deal, but it all adds up.Like tft, I have a target of 120p.
thirty fifty twenty
25 Oct 2015
Re: I'm in Hi Cagree that at those sorts of prices the share of gain shifts to mgt.personally a final get out at 120p would be a good result - that's 33% from here in 12-18mths (with quite limited downside).its interesting to note that unlike the situation at say LEAF with NAV at 60p there is a £3m provision for the mgt share when CASH is returned. At LXB there used to be a provision I think) from memory a few years ago), but there is none currently and thus I conclude that mgt don't see it likely to reach materially over the strike price - and if they do - good luck to them - its at a much higher level that currently.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
catsick
25 Oct 2015
I'm in I have taken a good look at this stock since Simon Thompson wrote about it in the IC , all in all it looks like a well run company with a solid stream of projects all going well , the NAV projections have all been well discussed, The only negative I can see that will restrict the upside of the investment is the carried interest kicker the management has, they get nothing until a compound 12% IRR is achieved but then they get 50% of the profits as a bonus fee , until the total fee they get has hit 20% of total cumulative profits and then it continues at a lower 20% , this is not an unusual arrangement, but it looks to me like although the quoted nav means it does not kick in , when all the upside that is semi baked in occours it will kick in to the extent that the managemnt will get 50% of a chunk of it. I dont think these adjusted nav calculations people are doing take it into account.As far as I can see this very juicy kicker is a very lucrative carrot, it means the management will be very agressive around giving cash back as quick as they can as this will boost the irr if profits made are returned faster, holding cash on the balance sheet will be a killer to managemnt if it is not earning 12% ! The recent B+Q deal only makes sense if done with cheap leverage. At the current share price its not a big deal but up towards 120-150 it will really cap returns to shareholders , although at 12% irr I am happy for them to have some gravy !
coldascheese
05 Oct 2015
Re: at 88p big BUY says ic Great article-spot on-also says"Windfall cash returnsmy reckoning, LXB will have received well north of £80m of further cash inflows between mid-June this year and early 2016. That’s a significant sum because as soon as the Rushden Lakes development completes the board intend to use the initial proceeds (£70m) of that disposal to fund another significant return of capital. In other words, expect a cash dividend in the order of 38p sometime early next year, a sum worth 45 per cent of LXB’s current share price.It’s likely to focus the mind of investors because I reckon that LXB’s net asset value will have increased to at least £202m by early next year, or 110p a share, and this excludes the outstanding £11.3m payment from Biggleswade, and the additional uncrystalised value in the second and third phases of the Rushden Lakes scheme.Or put it another way, with LXB’s shares trading on a bid-offer spread of 85.75p to 86p, valuing the company at £158m, then once the Rushden Lakes scheme completes, a cash return (likely to be 38p a share) is made to shareholders early next year, and a minimum revaluation surplus of 15p a share is factored in, then I reckon the shares will be trading on a 35 per cent discount to their pro-forma net asset value. That’s far too deep given the prospect of further asset sales and cash returns.
thirty fifty twenty
05 Oct 2015
at 88p big BUY says ic a great article in the Investors Chronicle.....assuming that there is some interaction with the company before publication,there are many specifics and confirmations in the article.It is confirmed that construction on track,it is effectively confirmed that payments on track re Rushden,it is confirmed the expected NAV increase from Rushden, (wasn't public before re how much Rushden was in the books at)it is specific re dividend expected early in 2016 of 38p,(that level of detail comes from the company not an analyst 'guestimate')this leaves paying 90p for 38p of CASH and then assets of 70p!also confirmed that mgt still receiving offers for various properties..... (any chance of a BID?)also confirmed that developments at Ayr + Truor in the books at cost only so thus only upside even if planning permissions need to be scaled back.... / amendedwhat wasn't mentioned was the further upside from Rushden in phases 2 and 3 (maybe 10p a share NAV)so hard to see any downside with 38p divi within 4/5 mths backed by assets of 70p+admittedly not huge upside either but a good 'Better than CASH' hold in current volatile markets.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
coldascheese
04 Oct 2015
now cinema @Rushden lakes [link]
coldascheese
02 Oct 2015
Re: at 86p HUGE volume Seller now revealed-however the director's buying has been very impressive indeed ,over a million shares.They must be confident, and have the inside knowledge we don' t have. I look forward to more announcements!I have upped my holdings also and am targeting 130 p in 12 months time. A 50% uplift.
tiltonboy
30 Sep 2015
Re: at 86p HUGE volume It would be nice to see the company buying in a few for cancellation.It would also be interesting to see who has been supplying stock to the market.I'm still targeting 120p, and not a seller beforehand.
thirty fifty twenty
30 Sep 2015
at 86p HUGE volume 3m traded today,2m traded yesterdayand the price rising slightly in a falling market (today excepted)the directors have been buyers through their pension and no surprise that others are piling in volume now given the discount to NAV and of course as we get nearer to the end of 2015 the nearer to completion of Rushden conditions and monies to be paid over.Hard to see downside and upside a steady 15-20p within 6 motnhsAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
15 Sep 2015
LXB + Greenwich I noticed Kingfisher results today talking of closing 60 stores as part of their overall strategy. They have already negotiated out of 26 stores and will progress the remaining 34!I don't know yet but am researching if Greenwich is one of those stores.Its very interesting taking a look at the sites on Google Maps,and alos the history of IKEA development in the UK.1 - LXB know this area like the back of their hand so if anyone can get value they can2 - IKEA is an excellent long term operator and definitely increases value of the area IKEA only have 12 locations in the UK!So what of this site.... well B&Q is currently their so in 1 sense it is strange to talk re opportunities as one would assume that B7Q just stay on site. A few of IKEA's stores sit along site B&Q. If this store is part of B&Q clear strategic plan then I think the rent will be going up and with new lease a reduced yield so possibly 20% uplift for B&Q.the more realistic scenario is that B7Q buy out the lease - prob 3 years cost = £6m.so LXB then have a blank development site beside IKEA + a cinema for a cost of c.£30m.IKEA have paid £40m for their site so it is easy to see £10m uplift in this scenario which is realisable within 2 years - good deal LXB.I am much happier with the purchase after research, and although I don't expect NAV to reach the 140p quoted. I do think c.120p share price is realistic as building works complete and CASH is transferred which will be excellent 18mth return in volatile markets.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldg
coldascheese
14 Sep 2015
Re: Good News - i think!! As the MD says"These transactions deliver exceptional value for investors."He seems very excited about the deal which as well as adding 3p to asset value clearly will uprate what rental they can get for their own development nearby.LXB know what they are doing and in my view with a potential uplift in asset value by this time next year to appx 140p ( +65%) with no downside this could be one of the best investments today in this volatile market. I have now reinvested in the company after selling ex div a few weeks ago.It's a raging buy for me at this price or lower.
thirty fifty twenty
14 Sep 2015
Good News - i think!! NAV up another 3p,and a further chunk of assets converted into CASH,thus reason for the discount to NAV to close.And just delivering on another asset development reduces risk.So all seems good news.I'm a little perplexed by the purchase of a new rental asset for £38m,it seems like a good purchase, and every faith of LXB directors spotting value,though am wondering if it is, or might appear to others, as a change in strategy,or once they have IKEA finally nailed down next week will they be able to 'flip the new purchase.On a more negative note I wonder if they were forced to purchase this site next down for IKEA to complete the deal - did IKEA want some protection to their site?It will be interesting to see the market reaction.Regardless for me LXB is sitting well below realisable NAV within a 12mth timescale,the closer we get to the end of the year the more people will start to think about the CASH to come from developments as they are built out and distribution part 2.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
12 Aug 2015
Re: at 84p - what they didnt say! Still not too late on JPEL, although the best gains have been seen. I'm now a seller into strength in MVI.
thirty fifty twenty
12 Aug 2015
Re: at 84p - what they didnt say! hi tbMVI and JPEL have done well.I missed buying them ....Agree that as time goes by the DCF valuation increases even with further letting delays - all else being equal and there is increasingly less risk with time as well (i.e. no news is good news like today's RNS).I was too overweight here pre 45p payment, then topped up at 81p.GL.all IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
