thirty fifty twenty
11 Dec 2015
at 94p FINALS confirm wind up My analysis of Finals and I think it is a bargin at 94p - another example of near certain value that the market seem to slightly undervalue... remember recently there has been...GKO, LMS, PUR, PSPI, WINDone of the news wires had a headline NAV falls (b/c last year it was 140p but obviously adj for the 45p divi it is up 10p (10%) over the year) the price fell to 92.5p this morning and I bought more.the results were full of detail on all the assets - an interesting read,but didn't give an overall update - i.e. "we think the final NAV will be......."so i think investors disappointed.but the great news is that they see all assets can be liquidated and CASH to shareholders within 15 mths,a risk before was that 20-30p of NAV would be the smaller developments that there just might not be a buyer for so it can be valued at whatever in the accounts, but if it cant be converted to CASH then worth a lot less as the running costs to manage would be high.in the results they talk about some things being post the wind up - i.e. Rushden Phase 3,and it is obvious that they want to continue their own involvement, but need to keep shareholders happy,thus there might be some 'rump' of development assets that the mgt team and desired shareholder will take private - not a concern and good luck to them.I do think CASH paid out will be close to 115p with 30p coming within a few months and 10% of the shares being bought back at below NAV in the coming weeks. There will be other positive news flow in the coming weeks - with a progress on a couple of developments mentioned, and details of the CASH return and exact valuations expected early January.they talk in the results that they were considering become a REIT (so efficient ongoing assets),but decided against as shareholders wanted to wind up....LXB have overperformed the market by 10% in the last 10 days!so that shows that the 3p rise is significant in a badly falling market.....I think people will wake up to this 15p to 20p return in 15% which is already mostly CASH contract backed, so downside seems very limited (even with difficulties re food store developments), and when there are few other opportunites around it is a GREAT share to hold,one can always sell out over the next 15 mths to buy a better opportunity if it comes along.....chances are one would get more than the current 94p at all times between now and Mar 17...so for me it isa great buy with any spare CASH (post CASH receipts from GKO and WIND)All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top 5 hldgs
tiltonboy
08 Dec 2015
Re: at 93p further increase in NAV CAS... I'm now hoping for a 70p return of capital next spring.
thirty fifty twenty
08 Dec 2015
Re: at 93p further increase in NAV CAS... hi Cold as cheese, indeed all looks good though normally I am a little sceptical when a company makes one announcement of progress a few days before a main update....there was talk at one point of becoming a UK REIT??and personally i'd be interested in comparing the 'max value' to previous statements ...time will tell but in fairness LXB mgt have shown themselves to be conservative and successful in nature before.All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
coldascheese
08 Dec 2015
Re: at 93p further increase in NAV CASH Thirty fifty twenty-quite right another bit of good news and we d'ont know yet what the Living Village scheme might have added to asset value. Lets hope we are in for a surprise on the asset value number. Butv all shaping up well.
thirty fifty twenty
08 Dec 2015
at 93p further increase in NAV + CASH Today's RNS seems to have gone a little under the rader so far......LXB has exchanged conditional contracts for Greenwich Brocklebank for £22m.completion will finalise early in 2016 and they estimate will add a further 2p to NAV.They have sold to the charites property fund who will fund the development,LXB will then manage the development,and when finished will get a further 5m (est at 3p) in Oct 2016.So it is all more of the same from LXB ...good deals - adding to NAV, and less and less risk as more properties become CASH rather than developments......future NAV likely to be 115p + with decent CASH return in the NY.share price strength also a good sign in current falling markets.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
coldascheese
03 Dec 2015
Results before Xmas ? Should be an update before xmas as last year.Notification was 5th, results 18th.
coldascheese
13 Nov 2015
Re: at 92p RNS news seems ALL good news! All good news and increasing asset value as well.My view of the future is that we are headed for a complete return of funds as property construction comes to fruition. The living villages concept can be done by any developer whereas commercial property is a specialists game. I think we are headed for a complete return of cash is due to the age of directors who are very near retirement age. They have been parking shares in their pensions, they own shares and are on a bonus for performance. All points to getting the most money from the company and shares by cashing in the fund.Would be best for all shareholders to.So I am looking for somewhere about 140 p + odd as they sell down the rest of the portfolio.This is my view but could be wrong.
thirty fifty twenty
13 Nov 2015
at 92p RNS news seems ALL good news! I wasn't expecting an RNS until December so this was a pleasant surprise.My expectation is that each news flow should have more new tenants etc..as the valuation growth is partly based on the expectation that occupancy increases towards 100% in all units. Still to be making progress on all fronts is excellent news.In a material sense it seems very positive at Banbury with a little boost to NAV,and more importantly at Rushden, steady progress as per the predicted timetable means NAV is secure, CASH payment is secure and return of c.40p also reasonably assured.Interestingly they didn't comment on the £38m purchase at Greenwich.not that anything has changed but its a big transaction and counter to stated liquidation policy..... so I am wondering now if they intend to hold onto.LV - it is great news that the PP was successful but also it changes the nature of the likely future direction of the business..I suspect they will make a final pay out and then keep some of the rental properties and CAH to fund ongoing development of the Living well concept which is all very exciting but long term and it is back to the business of many years of PP applications and development before returns visible - this is maybe a reason the shares are a little unloved compared to an 'obvious' NAV discount.In summary, I'm not looking at the share price now as 92p with (probably NAV of 120p-130p,but 52p with (probably) NAV of 80p-90p after a 40p payment.At that stage the assets left will be relative small scale,and aside from Rushden minimal upside.The market value will be c.£100m - a small property company which will take it of some people's radar, so it would not be surprising to see trading at a discount - 15%? so that gets to a current value of 80-90p less 15% discount + 40p CASH payout = 105p to 115pit seems pretty limited downside and high percentage of upside.the attractiveness of protected downside with limited upside is relatively increased in the falling market we seem to be having so all the time LXB's attractions increase,and I think there will be a further price uplift when ST updates in the IC.So if its so certain why can can one buy shares in the market....??Well why can one buy GKO at 93p when there is 98p to come within 3 months,Why can you buy PSPI at 40p when NAV is 56p and company is successfully winding up?Why can you buy LEAF at 36p when NAV is 60p and CRS state that expect CASH distribution 'signifcantly' in excess of current share price within c.3-6 months?Or you can buy WIND at 53p with a bid offer confirmed at 60p+ Of course there are risks with all of these situations,but to me the reward outweighs the risk and demonstrates the nervousness of the market,a portfolio of these opportunities would seem attractive in today's volatile markets.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO, LEAF, LXB, PSPI, WIND is in my portfolio
catsick
13 Nov 2015
update All looks good , 1.4m extra uplift on banbury , lots of new lettings and planning permissions all proceeding as hoped for , very upbeat ...
thirty fifty twenty
03 Nov 2015
Re: IRR stuff Hi CatsickAgree that its unlikely they will reach the IRR hurdle and its good news for us shareholders if they do!The rump in a REIT would make sense,and the creation of an ongoing vehicle would make NAV value more visible.Another option (which I think is the most likely given mgt development interests),is the sale of the remaining rump assets to a REIT.Either scenario should see crystalisation well above current price.All IMHO, DYOR + BoL LXB is in my top5 hldgs
catsick
03 Nov 2015
IRR stuff Putting all the cash flows to date together looks like they are on an IRR at quoted nav of around 5% to date, not that great given they don't pay a regular div and the reits with retail assets are up 50-100% over the period , assuming a distribution around mid next year of most of the remaining value then to get up to 12% and pay the higher carry share we need to get up to 170p , I don't think this is going to happen so this thing will not kick in. At this point I would be on a 120% irr on my investment so I hope they can get there ! What I think will happen, and the Greenwich transaction and comments in the interim accounts highlight is they will pay out another chunky div , and then create a REIT with the remaining assets once they are producing cash flow, this will enable them to keep clipping fees and explains part of the rational for the B+Q deal , As most of the retail reits are trading at or above NAV at the moment, I cant see a problem with this, however if the sector begins to trade at a decent discount again then a return of cash would clearly be preferable .....
coldascheese
02 Nov 2015
Re: at 92p no news is good news! Normally posts results in December so I expect a heap of good news with the results.
thirty fifty twenty
02 Nov 2015
at 92p no news is good news! with the positive Planning decision at Truro, I was expecting an RNS last week.am concluding that they are waiting to combine with other news as they have done previously.and thus deducting that other news must be good news, because if it was bad news they would have bundled up with the good news and been under an obligation to let shareholders know in a timely manner.so it seems steady as she goes with mgt believing the portfolio is capable to provide c. 135p of value albeit over 12-18mths.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
coldascheese
29 Oct 2015
Good news for LXB CBRE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS OUT OF TOWN SHOPPING CENTRE VALUE INCREASESHigh demand is driving up shopping centre values, with out-of-town centres racing ahead of those in town.The UK’s out-of-town shopping centres saw their value soar by 6 per cent in Q3, according to CBRE, marking the second steepest increase since 2000. Their capital appreciation dwarfed the 3.8 per cent growth in values for in-town shopping centres, echoing a growing demand for large, dominant destinations.Rents also grew strongly in these out-of-town shopping centres, rising 2.1 per cent, but even this growth wasn’t enough to keep pace with growing property values. As a result, yields were pushed down to 4.5 per cent, their lowest level since 2000, making these sites increasingly attractive for investors looking to lower their exposure to risk.Natasha Patel, Associate Director at CBRE Research said: "On the whole, we saw fairly modest capital value growth in Q3, but both rents and capital values in out-of-town shopping centres have grown remarkably. This rental growth is largely due to continued demand from retailers who are placing greater emphasis on dominant centres to strengthen their brand presence."Elevated by these out-of-town figures, the overall shopping centre sector saw capital value growth of 4.5 per cent and rental growth of 1.6 per cent, the highest across all prime commercial property sectors, which averaged 2.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. The popularity of shopping centres appears to have come at the expense of high street shops as property values in the rest of the retail sector have grown by just 2.2 per cent, a figure buoyed by strong capital value growth in Central London of 5.5 per cent.News provided by TheMoveChannel.com © Copyright, On The Move Limited, 2005NOTE-even town shopping centres values increased by 3.8% in the quarter.
catsick
26 Oct 2015
Another positive I like the deluge of director buying recently, they know more than anyone the quality of the projects, its a very good indication the shares are cheap.To me it looks like when a chunk of cash was returned in special divs, that was then recycled back into the shares in the market, I am guessing they will be trying to pay out as much as possible and again buy in with the proceeds, our interests are very strongly aligned,I am buying more today (-:
