Chuch2
02 Dec 2015
Volume I am surprised that no one has commented on recent Volumes.There were a couple of large sells/buys last week and this morning someone traded over 2 million shares.Can anyone see if these are buys or sells?Could be that someone is either dumping or buying a large stake.
claude reins
20 Nov 2015
Re: Paul Scott's view - He really likes... PS I think they have tried before if I remember correctly - initially individually and then later rebid with a Belgian ally to split the LVD group.
claude reins
20 Nov 2015
Re: Paul Scott's view - He really likes... Thanks for that. Deep in thought. Would be a very useful add on to Ashcroft which is doing well at the mo.
IOMINVESTCOM
20 Nov 2015
Re: Paul Scott's view - He really likes... Hi Claude,I am in the same boat as you nursing quite a loss and have a while back averaged down. I think you are right to raise the question as to whether you do again. It will probably depend on your risk profile, weighting and whether you are prepared to nurse more pain.Up until now I have been waiting for SCSW view on a takeover to come true. At 1.40 if you have a low weighting then maybe worth averaging now.GLTA
TX2
19 Nov 2015
Re: Paul Scott's view - He really likes... As far as Middle East is concerned;due to the longish lead time for projects from planning to start of the type Lavendon hires equipment,the effect of the oil price decline might not have kicked in yet.However it is only 20 odd% of the total & perhaps if Middle East goes off the boil UK & rest of Europe now flat may recover!Equipment hire companies are always difficult to value because their true profitability is rather dependent on whether they have got the depreciation of their equipment correct.This seems to be the area they come unstuck,as it is easy to flatter profits in the short term by not writing down fast enough.They suddenly seem to find they have to make a massive write down of equipment that they are no longer able to rent.Still I agree the shares do not seem to be dear.
claude reins
18 Nov 2015
Re: Paul Scott's view - He really likes the... Any ideas yourself on why the shares stand at such a low ebb; are you tempted to buy? I am a holder and am carrying quite a loss at the moment, though am tempted to average down. Small Company Sharewatcvh have had positive things to say about them several times this year and they dont often get things wrong. SCSW gave them the thumbs up as recently as September and since then they have tanked. SCSW's strongest comment came in May 15 with the following:Lavendon - UK trending higher174p Epic code: LVD(Sharewatch) A confident Q1 trading update from Lavendon. Despite relatively modest growth in revenues of just 1%, efficiencies mean that Lavendon expects much faster growth in profitability, margins and return on capital employed. Keynotes were the UK trending higher towards the end of the quarter whilst efficiencies have driven profitability; the Middle East has continued to storm ahead (+11%) with the weaker oil price environment not really affecting activity. Other European territories are unchanged on last year.At current share prices, Lavendon’s days of independence really do look numbered. Additional equipment has recently been added (ahead of schedule, temporarily lifting net debt to £103m) but the wider investment community hasn’t picked up on the fact that the frantic investment programme will start to peter out towards 2017 as a huge chunk of the fleet will have then been refreshed, after which this company will throw off a tidal wave of cash.Any would-be-predator would be wise to bid now whilst the shares remain so undervalued. Buy.
IOMINVESTCOM
18 Nov 2015
Paul Scott's view - He really likes them [link]
lambrini girl
23 Oct 2015
Re: Whats with the continued slide? frantically searching for buybots..112 should suffice..
shovelier
23 Oct 2015
Re: Whats with the continued slide? Doesn't seem to be any particular reason. Just a rather lack lustre business at present. Roll on another takeover bid and I'll be out of here. They've got the business and the kit. They haven't done themselves any favours outsourcing transport to Wincanton; a rather goofy move IMHO but wtfdik.
claude reins
22 Oct 2015
Re: Whats with the continued slide? Been away. Just got back and surprised to see it falling so fast. Quite a lot of volume today - 500k shares.Maybe affected by other companies' performance in the market but cant see why it should be down so far. Bought in June after May reco - see below. Further recommended in by SCSW in August and Sept! Holding for the moment though well down on purchase price.Sept said:166p Epic code: LVD(Sharewatch) Lavendon’s H1 re-echoed the strong trends from the prelims with chief executive Don Kenny certainly cheery when we spoke to him. Total sales were up 1% at constant currency at £119m but efficiency gains and higher prices meant that overall pretax profit lifted 18% to £14.5m and eps by 17% to 6.6p. Of course depreciation on the hire kit masks strong cashflows with ebitda up 6% to £37m.A key performance metric, ROCE – Kenny’s holy grail -improved significantly by 2.1% to 12.7%. Margins also went from 12.7% to 14.1% pushed up with good performance in the UK.Kenny reiterates this year’s increase in capex to £75m, £20m being brought forward from 2016. £39m was spent in H1. That’s confidence for you given that others in the sector are reeling. The new kit is going into the Middle East, UK and France.Middle East (£8.3m profit on £27m sales) is a swing factor with operating margins lifting to 30.7% (from 30%). Kenny says he’s seeing a bit of a slow down in Saudi petrochemical work but this is offset by work in airports, hospitals, schools and light and heavy rail. Other regions are taking off. You have things like the Dubai Expo in 2020 and Kuwait clean fuel projects etc driving demand. World Cup in Qatar, if it goes ahead, is a cherry on the cake.The UK also saw a strong period. Business is stronger than the 2% decline in sales indicates because in November, Lavendon ditched 900 of the very low level bits of kit that rent at £35pw but the bigger bits of kit, which rent at up to £1000pw, remain in strong demand with profit up 18% to £7.5m. More efficiencies resulted in margins of 15.2% (from 13%).Elsewhere, in Europe, France recorded its 13th consecutive month of improvement, says Kenny. Belgium is still a little sluggish after one of its largest contracts ended. Germany saw growth in Q2 following new management being introduced.N+1 Singer forecasts eps of 17.4p for the full year and 18.5p next. The PE is less than 10. Buy.August said:Lavendon - Upgrade when others in sector get downgrade!180p Epic code: LVD(Sharewatch) Speaking to chief executive Don Kenny following the Q2 update, Lavendon seems to have avoided the banana skins impacting HSS and Speedy Hire (self inflicted, weather related, General Election effect, or market forces) and whereas those two have had profit warnings, Lavendon has had its forecasts raised.Trading has picked up so strongly that in fact Kenny is now pulling forward £20m of capital expenditure planned for next year into the current year, so that total spend is likely to be £75m (2015: £55m) and although the new equipment will only be in for a few weeks in H2, it should have a bumper H1 next year. Of the spend, £10m is earmarked for the Middle East and £7m for the UK.Overall rental revenues in H1 were +3% on a constant currency basis and excluding ex-fleet equipment sales. The UK has seen particularly solid demand from tier1/tier2 customers who are more worried about service levels and they tend to take the bigger bits of kits. Overall pricing has been firm.The Middle East, despite tough comparatives of H1 last year, has raced higher once again with good demand in Oman, Quatar and Kuwait and only a modest impact on the East Coast of Saudi where new projects have been a bit slow to take off, but not much. Over in Continental Europe, France is really performing, Germany has turned the corner and Belgium, although lower following the large contract coming to an end last year, is picking up nicely in volume.Broker N+1 Singer has upgraded its forecasts by 4% to pretax pro
jim b-r
20 Oct 2015
Whats with the continued slide? Seems a bit disproportionate!? Or have I missed something?
claude reins
30 Jul 2015
Re: Pretty cool LVD / AHT infographic re... Should have said that strong buy is based on Small Company Sharewatch's view about takeover possibilities, and others views that problems with 'competitors' are specific to those companies.
claude reins
30 Jul 2015
Re: Pretty cool LVD / AHT infographic re... TVH in 2010, joint AHT/TVH in 2011, 110p and 115p respectively I think.
shovelier
30 Jul 2015
Re: Pretty cool LVD / AHT infographic report Wasn't it Ashtead who bid for Lavendon a few years ago?
mcescher
30 Jul 2015
Pretty cool LVD / AHT infographic report I found this report that compares Lavendon Group and Ashtead Group plc, pretty interesting. [link]
