Lavendon Group Live Discussion

gretel 22 Nov 2016

Re: Bid at Last @ 2.05 205p....not a bad start, but only 12% of irrevocables obtained to date. Let the bidding war commence ))

IOMINVESTCOM 22 Nov 2016

Bid at Last @ 2.05 22 November 2016FINAL CASH OFFERforLavendon Group plc ("Lavendon"byLibra Bidco Limited ("Libra Bidco",a wholly owned subsidiary of TVH Group N.V. ("TVH"Summary-- TVH today announces a final cash offer (the "Offer" for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Lavendon by Libra Bidco, a wholly owned subsidiary of TVH (the "Transaction". It is proposed that the Offer will be effected by means of a takeover offer under the City Code and within the meaning of Part 28 of the Companies Act.-- Under the terms of the Offer, which will be subject to the Conditions and certain further terms set out in Appendix I and to the full terms and conditions which will be set out in the Offer Document, each Lavendon Shareholder will be entitled to receive: for each Lavendon Share 205 pence in cash (the "Cash Consideration" -- The Offer values the entire issued share capital of Lavendon at approximately GBP348 million and represents a premium of approximately:-- 57.4 per cent. to the Closing Price of 130.3 pence per Lavendon Share on 16 September 2016 (being the last Business Day before TVH approached the Board of Lavendon);-- 47.5 per cent. to the Closing Price of 139.0 pence per Lavendon Share on 21 November 2016 (being the last Business Day before the date of this Announcement);-- 56.1 per cent. to the volume weighted average Closing Price of 131.3 pence per Lavendon Share for the twelve month period ending on 21 November 2016 (being the last Business Day before the date of this Announcement).-- TVH has received irrevocable undertakings representing 12.3 per cent. of the share capital of Lavendon in issue as at the close of business on 10 November 2016.-- TVH confirms that the Offer is final and the Cash Consideration will not be increased, except that TVH reserves the right to increase the amount of the Cash Consideration if there is an announcement on or after the date hereof of an offer or a possible offer for Lavendon by a third party offeror or potential offeror. -- The Cash Consideration implies an enterprise value[1] of approximately GBP506 million. -- If any dividend or other distribution (including any return of capital) is authorised, declared, made or paid by Lavendon on or after the date of this Announcement, Libra Bidco has the right to reduce the Cash Consideration by the amount of all or part of any such dividend or other distribution. -- TVH believes that the combination of TVH's Equipment business with Lavendon would be highly complementary in terms of capabilities, geographical footprint, customers and suppliers. It represents a significant step forward in TVH's strategy to expand its specialised equipment rental business. -- Combining Lavendon's leading market position in the UK and growing business in France with TVH Equipment's leading market positions in other major European markets would create a pan-European specialised equipment rental business.-- The Transaction also represents a unique opportunity for TVH to enter the highly attractive Middle Eastern powered access equipment rental market, in which Lavendon is the market leader.-- The Offer is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the Conditions, and to the further terms that are set out in Part B of Appendix I to this Announcement and which will be set out in the Offer Document.-- The Offer is subject to an acceptance condition of 75 per cent., albeit that this may be waived down to such lesser percentage as TVH may decide, not being less than 50 per cent. plus one share. -- TVH has received irrevocable undertakings to accept the Offer from: o GVQ Investment Funds (Dublin) PLC in respect of 10,950,130 Lavendon Shares, representing approximately 6.4 per cent. of the share capital of Lavendon in issue on 10 November 2016; ando Unicorn Asset Management Limited in respect of 10,018,857 Lavendon Shares, representing approximately 5.9

shovelier 17 Nov 2016

Re: Peel Hunt increase forecasts We've had a bid before. It could happen again. Here's hoping.

IOMINVESTCOM 17 Nov 2016

Re: Peel Hunt increase forecasts Let's hope we see Peel Hunt share price target although its a bit stale news at 2.75........ would need a bid to achieve that figure IMHO

gretel 17 Nov 2016

Peel Hunt increase forecasts Apparently Peel Hunt have increased their forecast for this year by 3% to 19.1p EPS.

IOMINVESTCOM 16 Nov 2016

Paul Scott's view Dividend yield - is currently forecast at around 4.6% - pretty decent.My opinion - I really like it, because the valuation is so compelling. The group is dominant in a profitable niche, and seems to be performing well.So why is the PER so low? The answer seems to be that some analysts are worried about a potential downturn in Lavendon's highly profitable operations in the Middle East. Also, payment terms are slow in that region, and there are concerns over pricing being eroded possibly? Plus the nightmare scenario of some major geopolitical trouble kicking off again in that region.That said, these concerns seem to be weighing too heavily on the valuation, which looks strikingly cheap to me. The company keeps putting out decent trading updates, and the market keeps ignoring them & fixating on potential risks.My feeling is that the mood seems to be changing, with Governments beginning to recognise that ultra-low interest rates alone are not enough to stimulate growth. Big infrastructure programmes are now being mooted to provide a conventional Keynesian type boost to economies. That seems to be the way Trump is indicating that he favours. Maybe Europe might eventually follow suit?I'm only mentioning this, as I can foresee this changing mood perhaps being positive for Lavendon. If the market starts to see the glass half full, then it's not a big stretch of the imagination to see LVD shares re-rating, up to a share price maybe in the 200-250p range. That would still only be a PER in low double digits, which is hardly a stretch.Time will tell, but for me, risk:reward looks quite good at c.135p per share.[link]

shovelier 28 Sep 2016

Re: Excellent results - looks cheap Could ask for a higher sp. This has been as high as £7 within living memory ; should have sold out then. What we need is another takeover bid.

abc2104 26 Aug 2016

Paul Scott Good morning!There's only one share that interests me this morning, Lavendon (LON:LVD) , so let's crack no with that.Lavendon (LON:LVD)Share price: 134p (up 7.2% today)No. shares: 169.9mMarket cap: £227.7m(at the time of writing, I hold a long position in this share)Interim results, 6m to 30 Jun 2016 - this is an equipment hire group, operating in UK, Europe & M.East. Its niche is powered aerial access equipment - the website is quite interesting, showing all the different types of product which Lavendon hires out. It claims to be the market leader.What interests me is that the valuation seems compelling, compared with other hire companies;Forward PER is only about 6.5Dividend yield is almost 5%, 3-times covered.It has a strong balance sheet.Equipment hire companies are often on a rating of about 2x NTAV. In this case, the latest NAV figure announced today is £237.9m. Deduct goodwill & other intangibles of £51.7m, arrives at £186.2m NTAV. So 2x NTAV (a fair rating, in my opinion), would give a valuation of £372.4m, or 219p per share - which is my reckoning of where the shares probably should be now. That's a very attractive 63% potential upside, if I'm right about this.Consistently meeting market expectations, yet share price has fallen considerably - this doesn't make sense to me. The market is clearly expecting a big downturn in earnings, but there doesn't appear to be any evidence at all to suggest that is happening, or likely to happen.Looking at today's interim results, the only surprise is a big increase in the dividend - up 18% - so clearly management are confident.Forecasts - Peel Hunt is forecasting 18.7p for 2016, and 19.4p for 2017. However, there is possible upside on these figures, because they have not factored in favourable forex movements. Over half of revenue, profit & cashflows are generated outside the UK.Outlook - there is more detail given, but the key part says;Trading since the half year has continued to be in line with our expectations and, whilst mindful of the recent increased economic uncertainty, the Board remains confident of making further progress in the second half and delivering on its expectations for 2016.That sounds reassuring. I wouldn't be surprised if they deliver full year results ahead of forecast, given the forex tailwind. So why the market is only rating this on a PER of about 6.5, is a mystery to me.57c006b94eb59LVD_valuation_2.PNGBalance sheet - net debt has risen to £148.9m, due to fleet expansion, and forex movements which increase overseas debt when translated into sterling. This really isn't a problem though, and in my opinion the debt is perfectly reasonable when compared with EBITDA and the book value of the hire fleet.When interest rates are this low, it makes sense for equipment hire companies to borrow cheaply, and generate a much higher return from the equipment. The ROCE here is 12.2%, which has gone down a bit, but looks pretty good to me compared with dirt cheap bank debt.I suppose the danger is that such low interest rates may cause hire companies to over-invest, resulting in over-supply of hire equipment, and eventually a plunge in profits when the next recession coincides with over-supply.On a more general level, interest rates being too low, for too long, is likely to lead to all sorts of capital misallocations, with pretty bad consequences eventually. In the meantime however, we can make hay whilst the sun shines.My opinion - to my mind, this stock is just the wrong price.The market seems to be anticipating downturns in Lavendon's main markets, which are just not happening. Bear in mind that Saudi Arabia is a particularly profitable market for Lavendon, but other M.Eastern countries seem to be doing well too, and compensating for some margin reduction there.I'm not madly keen on general hire companies. It's the niche ones which are interesting, such as this. Wi

shovelier 26 Aug 2016

Re: Interims highlights Good encouraging results and reflected in the sp."The exceptional items relate to the costs incurred from in-sourcing the UK's transportation function and the charges associated with the restructuring programme being undertaken in Germany."Shame about the Wincanton fiasco; lasted about a year and was doomed to failure right from the start. The business model was never going to fit with LVD's delivery patterns.Let's hope we can get some more value back into this now.

gretel 26 Aug 2016

Excellent results - looks cheap Excellent H1 results, so with the usual H2 bias the confidence in the outlook about achieving 18.6p EPS forecasts is justified.The 2p interim dividend payment looks well ahead of 5.8p annual divi forecasts if I'm not mistaken based on last year's split.Debt is up, but the Balance Sheet is strong. Great ROCE too. And LVD will benefit in H2 from currency movements.Can't ask for much more than this.

IOMINVESTCOM 26 Aug 2016

Interims highlights Lavendon Group PLC26 August 201626 August 2016Lavendon Group plcHalf Year Results 2016Lavendon Group plc ("the Group", Europe's market leader in the rental of powered access equipment, today announces its Half Year Results for the six months ended 30 June 2016.Good First Half Performance -- Total revenues up 13% - strong rental revenue growth in UK, Middle East and France -- EBITDA growth of 17% largely funding net capex programme of GBP62m -- Group underlying operating profit increased by 10% - strong growth in UK and Middle East -- Underlying PBT increased by 10% to GBP15.9m and underlying EPS increased by 12% to 7.40p -- ROCE of 12.2% remains comfortably ahead of WACC at 9.5% -- Strong balance sheet with net debt:EBITDA 1.61x - well supported by operational cash flows -- Interim dividend up 18% reflecting good performance and Board's confidence in future prospects

Blanketstacker 22 Aug 2016

Re: Buying opportunity? For Jacko Apologies the MCO PER is 12 not 21! D'oh!

Another Jacko 21 Aug 2016

Re: Buying opportunity? For Jacko Hi Blanketstacker I've just had a quick look at MCO and I don't think they're cheap enough for me at the moment but i'll add them to the watchlist and keep an eye out for the results.

Blanketstacker 20 Aug 2016

Re: Buying opportunity? For Jacko Do you have an opinion on MCO? This is coming up on my value screen again. They are primarily a franchise lettings agency.PER = 21PEG = 0.31No debtYield = 4.8%Interims due 14 September.

Blanketstacker 20 Aug 2016

Re: Buying opportunity? Interims are now confirmed for this coming Friday, 26th August. Good luck to us all.(I like HSP Jacko, as the management are more astute than some may think. They began planning for the decline of the core business a good few years back, and developed the expertise in engineering. The surplus land may not seem that attractive at the moment, but I was always told 'ground is a good thing to own; the last thing I heard they had stopped making it'. What puts me off is the very limited yield potential in the sort to medium term. I could see this dropping again at the next interims after Christmas. that time I reckon the whole market will be lower anyway. I will stand off it for now, but keep a close eye).