Hardboy
19 Feb 2018
Re: CFO change Obviously you never know when a new man is appointed to a new job hoe it will turn out, but it sounds like an excellent appointment. let's hope markets see it that way.
claude reins
19 Feb 2018
CFO change Inevitable that CFO would go sooner or later after the debacle in December when the Fin Controller went. Chiefs and Indians must bear similar responsibility. Not sure what this means for the short term results though anticipate that a heavyweight such as the new guy will be good for the medium and longer term. Main had only been with the company for 2 years to now - 18 months to debacle - and was from McBride, not exactlky a major internbational technology company.My personal view is that the Board needs to add some strong NEDs - one or more - to guide the growth programme of the major shareholder and CEO. The Chairman, Brand is lightweight in this technical field, strong in buyouts; the senior NED Barton must be a busy Chair with Next and Easyjet.; Brown and Surridge strong in corporate finance. Adding someone or two with technical and Asian production expertise would help a lot.
Hardboy
02 Feb 2018
Today Big Rise & Huge volume. Must be my fault someone spotted me buying an LED light bulb
numberbiter
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought This share is falling day by day. 128p when I first recommended a 'strong sell', now 79p. It must be obvious that another 'profits warning' is round the corner and with debt at a very high level the risks are enormous. This is why regular selling is consistently putting the price down. How low does it have to get for you all to get the message.As for 180p, someone is having a laugh at your expense.
Hardboy
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought Excellent post, Claude, thanks for your considered analysis. (the way I loved you in Casablanca! - one of the best characters in the history of cinema, IMHO)I've just checked Digital look for forecast figures. 2016 - TO £133.75m, EPS: 8.5.2017 - TO £163.8m, EPS: 8.25 (forecast)2018 - TO £200.15m, EPS: 10.85This obviously takes into account the December Trading statement as prior to that the forecast EPS I think was around 10. As for valuation of stock - I know this affects the balance sheet, but it does not affect the business; which is forecast to continue to grow, healthily, and no one has challenged that. I assume the December statement, which provided guidance for the full year, will replace the post close statement in February, but they may feel inclined to update the markets and give some clearer guidance. It would be gratefully received.
Peermade
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought....180p tp?? Buyers beware as the next announcement will likely be a stock write down and a big bottom line hit. I seem to remember that stock turnover was about 180 days. Far too long if so. After these issues are addressed it could be worth a punt.
mantrova
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought....180p tp?? The most recent Numis tp which I can see published is just "Under review".What have you as the 180p tp source? Thanks.m
claude reins
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought Hello Hardboy, I agree with the bulk of what you say, and would just like to add some more to the skin (and meat) on the bones of your assessment.I havent seen mentioned anywhere the revised broker's assessment. Although it doesnt appear on any of the documents I can see Numis are the company's broker. I understand that they did issue a revised forecast immediately following the trading statement and that the gist of thta was that the effect of the profit reduction would be felt well into 2018. That does not disagree with your comments about margin recovery in H2 2018 though the sooner the better - like August rather than December! Up till now Berenberg have also been making regular broker statements. I have seen neither since the Trading Statement in December. Maybe others on the bb have access to these which is more difficult to access these days because of the European direction. I understand Research Tree may be a good asource but you have to pay for it. Anyone doing that or know of an alternative source for updates form these two brokers?That is by the way. On Stockopedia, the two brokers - Numis and Berenberg (Omar Ismail) - report on Lucedo, and one regards the company as a strong buy, with the general cnsensus indicator showing a strong buy. The latest target quoted on Stockopedia for what it is worth - and presumably this is from the broker, Numis, is yes, wait for it, 180p.In the past, but that was soon after the IPO, there was a Post-Close Trading update the first week in February. Given the December 15th one, perhaps there is insufficient time to be more precise about what changes have been made and give more precise figures about the 'mitigating factors' and other changes. Certainly a xconfidence booster would do no harm at all.Finally on the CEO selling shares - about 5% of his holding this was described at the time as NOTE: Sold to settle personal tax liabilities. That is not unusual the timing was pretty close to the Trading Statement.On the basis that a second profit warning will not follow the first, I consider them to be a weak buy at least at today's price and possibly a astrong buy for a mid term holder.
claude reins
26 Jan 2018
Re: Bought I will respond in more detail later, but as I understand it - and I may be wrong - the Group's Financial Controller (not a Board position) was fired after the December debacle. The Chief Financial Officer - which is a Board appointment - is David Main and this is presumably the equivalent of what elsewhere is often called the Financial Director. Presumably the FC reported into the CFO, David Main, who joined the group in Feb 16. So he has been around for a period of about 18 months before the debacle was discovered. Mr Main needs to get a better finger on the pulse of the Finance function' operations, not only in the area of stock valuation but also in the forex hedging also mentioned in the December trading update.
Hardboy
25 Jan 2018
Re: Bought Hi Number, I appreciate your concern and detailed analysis. You could well be right in your pessimism; but from known knows I still think the fall is overdone; and I accept that selling at the time of your first recommendation would have been the right decision; but hind-sight is a wonderful gift.As for the MD selling shares. He could not sell any before October 2017, because he was locked in for a year after IPO. And although 2m shares is a lot, he was still left with over 31m shares - hardly someone expecting impending Armageddon -. If you check back on my posts I had been expecting him to sell some of his holdings last autumn (before he did) & was surprised he did not sell more. I've just rechecked the trading statement. They expect to recover the margin by H2 2018. The main problem was put down to exchange rates and commodity prices which are a fact of life. They also said their outlook for turnover is unchanged. This has been a quickly growing business, so if the outlook for sales is unchanged (i.e. around up 22% p.a. for the next couple of years) and if gross margins can be re-established within a year, there is a very healthy outlook. 22% year on year growth and the same margins in 2019 as was achieved in 2016 would give the 2019 EPS of about 15, which makes it hugely undervalued now. It would be more reassuring if we were to see some director buys, but the CEO & Chairman already have plenty of skin in the game, and the FD does not exist yet. Also last year they issued a trading update in early Feb, and if they are doing that again, they would be in a closed period. I suppose I believe in their product and the potential of their position in the market, so, as long as they can get the bean counting functioning well, there should be a good future still. We shall see.
numberbiter
25 Jan 2018
Re: Bought Hardboy,I would like you to consider the following
1) On 24 November 2017 the CEO of Luceco sold 2 million shares at 234.53p per share.(2) Just a few weeks later, on 15 December 2017, the company issues a massive profit warning and the shares crash to 128p. At that point I advise a 'strong sell' as nothing seemed to add up.(3) In the last few days the share has been falling consistently and today is down to 86p.Add all this together and I think there is another profit's warning around the corner.
numberbiter
19 Jan 2018
Re: Bought The first profit warning was not specific enough; it merely said stocks were over-valued and that as a result a member of the finance team had left. The next profit warning will be the detail. When a company gets its accounts wrong the first thing they do is to say, "we have discovered a problem but we have yet worked out how big it is. This gives on the ball investors time to get out before the real profit warning hits the airwaves.
claude reins
19 Jan 2018
Re: Bought You may be right, you may be wrong. On the basis of your expectation of a second profit warning? What other information do you have?
numberbiter
19 Jan 2018
Re: Bought I am afraid this is a classic. It has been dripping down, over 20% since I first recommended a 'strong sell'. This signs are there for all to see; a big fall is round the corner.
smilingmickey1
22 Dec 2017
Re: Bought Just to say Hardboy I decided to take a hit.As numberbite said there are a lot of uncertainties. The low cost model of sourcing from China seems under pressure due to strength of Remnimbi vs dollar and sterling. Getting back the lost margin needs lower costs on sterling basis (difficult) or higher sterling prices (more difficult). Getting stock levels down must be difficult, if a plan to do so advised in the year end accounts fails to make any progress by the time of the announcement of the 2017 interims. Cash conversion from profit is poor. Sales volumes are growing but are they profitable with the revised currency exchange rates and is growth a wise strategy if increased inventory is required to support it?Should have done my due diligence earlier. Lesson hopefully learned!
