Michael Soubry
29 Jul 2015
Re: Poor results Yes, grateful for your evaluation, thank you. I've been looking for some guidelines on LRE.
Tenobas
29 Jul 2015
Re: Poor results Thank you for your time and effort.
Greyinvestor
29 Jul 2015
Poor results Poor results out of LRE today, I thought.You have to be really careful to read the financial supplement to get to the real value of these shares, but here are a few bald numbers.Premiums down 33% year to date - very poorCombined ratio 78.2% v 74.6% before the crucial hurricane season - weakRates well down - poorInvestment return negative - poorDuration of bonds 1.6 years v 1.5 years - too longTangible fully converted book value about £3.77Dividend static @ about 3p ($0.05cents)My valuation? Around £5.28 = good value, £6.41 = adequate in a very overvalued marketIt's pretty tough stuff. LRE has got a long haul ahead.......
Greyinvestor
09 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up GSK carries too much debt for me. It's offset by excellent IPR, of course....
Broncomaniac
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up Grey, one more company to mention, and this is the last one! Glaxo has previously done very well for people buying at this price. Yield nearly 6%. Worth a look! It's about 5% of my portfolio, considering a top up.
Broncomaniac
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up I was happy to pay a high multiple for the aviation side, which I think is high quality with a fantastic order book, however I neglected to factor in how much impact the oil services side has. I topped up yesterday, but at least a day too soon it seems! I'm just going to sit and suffer now.
Greyinvestor
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up Numbers not as good as the image. Close to being sensible value. I would be very upset if someone took them over. My reservation is that they might only make £800m v market cap £14.7bn = P/E 18. Too high for me. I don't like paying more than 13* earnings.
Broncomaniac
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up How about Rolls Royce?
Greyinvestor
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up I have been tempted by HSTN, but in the end have plumped for what I think is better fare. I've topped up with HFEL and LRE, and got close to adding a few HSBC (but I didn't go for them in the end).The market is still overpriced. I think that the Greeks will have to give in some time soon, which would cause a rebound, but I have to stick to my guns and only buy good value....
Broncomaniac
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up The price has come back to more reasonabe levels, but I'm still inclined to wait until September-ish, hoping for some storm activity! The trouble is, by then the 'Greece discount' may have been removed from the price.Hansteen has also dropped back a fair bit, are you tempted to get back in there Grey?
Warthog4
07 Jul 2015
Re: Topped up So did Invesco to the tune of 2 million shares bringing their holding to 19%.
Greyinvestor
07 Jul 2015
Topped up Topped up my holding of these yesterday @ £6.19. A lot more than I wanted to pay, but the price just won't go low enough (yet!).........
Broncomaniac
14 Jun 2015
Re: Hurricane predictions Hurricane forecasting is a difficult business, even once they are in action people often predict the wrong path!The fact there hasn't been a big one for 10 years doesn't necessarily mean there is more chance of one soon, but what it definitely does mean is that premiums must have fallen a long way due to the lack of recent payouts
FRTEB
13 Jun 2015
Re: Hurricane predictions On the other hand... NOAA predicts, " Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year " [link] ...And a report by the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University says, " We continue to foresee a well below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. " [link] (link opens a pdf file) Both of the above are respected organisations. Regardless, I feel as sure as I can be that the equilibrium between hurricanes, claims, premiums, EPS and dividends will continue to be maintained for as far as the eye can see. ...Not forgetting that this sector represents only one part of LRE's business. Personally, as a current AML and ex-CGL shareholder I'd like to see the sp of LRE well below 600 before dipping a toe in the water.
Greyinvestor
13 Jun 2015
Hurricane predictions [link] have no idea who this forecaster is. The predictions seem to be much worse than general opinion.........but are still of real interest, I think.
