bulltraderpt
07 Dec 2015
Re: Oh dear.. No RNS either. Mmmmmmmmmmmmm
adriano
07 Dec 2015
Re: Oh dear.. Damn - that's messed up one of my plans, so these shares have had to go.....
Greyinvestor
07 Dec 2015
Re: Oh dear.. Can't be good news, why else would they have been publicly fired? Oh dear, more to come, perhaps.......
bulltraderpt
07 Dec 2015
Oh dear.. [link]
Greyinvestor
04 Dec 2015
Valuation review I went over my valuation again yesterday, to see if the price merits a purchase after the recent drop.On EPS grounds, it doesn't. Some of the brokers are now forecasting EPS as low as 45p next year. This would suggest fair value around £5.40.On NTA grounds, I think that NTA must now be around £3.88. This suggest a valuation around £6.60. A mid point is therefore around £6. To my mind this is fair value. Of course the whole market is overvalued, so the present price is fair v the market, but more than I would want to pay. Brokers are sliding towards an average Hold position, so I guess that they share this view.I can't see the company wanting to weaken it's balance sheet any more, so next year's divi will surely be no higher than 45p, a lot less than this year.
Rober01
04 Dec 2015
Re: 730p Forecast What?????
adriano
03 Dec 2015
730p Forecast With the lovely dividend, even if this SP reaches the low estimate of 730p, this suits me very well. Still a T/O target IMHO in which case 730p would be incredibly low.... DYORA
Greyinvestor
30 Nov 2015
valuation Valuations of non life insurers have risen markedly, probably quite fairly. But a valuation of 1.7 times fully diluted NTA is probably fair.For now the company is writing less business, and earnings will most likely suffer a little. We've also had a few benign claims years. This is unlikely to go on forever.Finally, investment returns are trending towards zero.Having said all of the above, it's been a great period to own non life insurers and I continue to hold BEZ, LRE, and NVA.Over the course of a cycle, and the cycle has now turned down, non life insurers have earned great returns and paid staggering dividends.
Rober01
27 Nov 2015
Re: Fair value ?Bermuda Base No Corporation Tax
deepsleeves
27 Nov 2015
Re: Fair value GreyIn the last 5 years LRE has distributed $8/share, approx £5, in dividends, in total just over £1m.In the same period net assets have increased from £1.28 to £1.36 million and cash from operations was £1.1mInterestingly corporation tax was effectively nil on £1.23m of profit, not sure how this is managed.Given LRE's record in generating and distributing cash I would be interested in how you arrive at the range of values you suggestDeep
Greyinvestor
27 Nov 2015
Fair value LRE has now distributed more of it's capital, so it's time to assess what fair value is, based upon the reduced level of net tangible assets, and to some extent reduced earning power.In my view the highest possible valuation is £6.60, and the lower end of the valuation range is £5.44. So I put fair value at around £6.I remain a substantial holder of these shares, but the price is a bit too high for me to add to my stake at this stage.
titusaducks
26 Nov 2015
Re: share price dip ThanksPhew 😅 !!
pancaked
26 Nov 2015
Re: share price dip Thanks for that Shaggy
deepsleeves
26 Nov 2015
Re: share price dip Fall is overdone, down 88p as I type against a ex div fall that should be 63p for the 95c dividend.Looking back it seems that this exaggerated fall is actually the norm. Mar 13 down 90p on a 105c dividendDec 14 down 80p on a 120c dividendSold out yesterday at £7.68 net so feeling smug and will look to buy back early next weekDeep
5haggy
26 Nov 2015
Re: share price dip To flesh-out the previous posting, the 3rd Quarter Results published on 5 November stated:"Lancashire today announces that its Board of Directors has declared a special dividend for 2015 of $0.95 per common share (approximately £0.61 per common share at the current exchange rate), which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $188.0 million. The dividend will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 18 December 2015 (the "Dividend Payment Date"
to shareholders of record on 27 November 2015 (the "Record Date" using the £ / $ spot market exchange rate at 12 Noon London time on the Record Date."Hope this helps to explain todays ex-div drop to all those of you out there that had forgotten!
