onedb1
30 Nov 2017
Re: That is me stopped out you are right Shugg1e ! I trade as most know am not a buy and hold investor ( rarely ) so it always CFDs I do . Am leveraged . Hence why i have stops .
shugg1e
30 Nov 2017
Re: That is me stopped out I think he meant 1.5p a share ffs!!!!!
shugg1e
30 Nov 2017
Re: That is me stopped out arrr man terrible timing
SiJambo
29 Nov 2017
Re: That is me stopped out 'This time for a loss of 1.5p .' Ha Ha ha aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! 1.5p Get realGo on a crypto site for more excitement!I have looked at Lonmin for a couple of years and it brings nothing but disappointment!This is a company that can not deliver value.Move on!
onedb1
29 Nov 2017
That is me stopped out This time for a loss of 1.5p . Platinum at $950 and super Palladium at $1020 are just not looked at as relevant till the $1.1bn asset review is sorted . Strange though as at 31st of March (q2) the TNW against which the covenants were set was of $1434m vs the limit of $1100m . Since then we had a good q3 and q4 in cash terms Cash has not come down therefore I cannot understand were the $334m reduction that would be needed to trigger the review would have been lost . If this review passes and all is ok I'd expect a major rerate . So only a very substantial impairment , reduction in production or drop in PGM price basket would cause an issue . Remember though cash keeps on increasing · Net Cash improved again to $103 million at 30 September, up from $86 million at 30 June and $75 million at 31 March.What do I know anyway ... On the sidelines now but still looking at it
shugg1e
29 Nov 2017
Next leg down Looks like support has gone today these could well retest those lows unless metals put in a strong rally
Nice to Michu
28 Nov 2017
Re: 2018 the year of the Plat That sounds good. One cavaet being that Lonmin mind find it harder to push through meaningful 'strategic change' if the SA government expect the sales prices it achieves, on average, being a little stronger next year.Deep down i still feel the Lonmin s/p will comeback decently or even strongly in 2018, one way or other.. but of course that's just my instinct/guess...and I do have a biased soft spot for it as it has been good to me (very fortunately granted, as most holders, especially long-term, have been meullered over many recent years)
onedb1
22 Nov 2017
Re: 2018 the year of the Plat [link] link here is easier to access in case anyone was wanting to view it .
BuySel
21 Nov 2017
2018 the year of the Plat Platinum market deficit to expand sharply in 2018 - WPIC<a href='[link] target='window'>2017-11-21/Platinum-market-deficit-to-expand-sharply-in-2018</a>
Nice to Michu
16 Nov 2017
Re: What's the crux of the issue? its big picture political stuff that is key here now imho - eg government allowing labour force cuts or serious pay restraint or asset sales/amalgams/ jv's / mothballs etc or how to value assets against a deteriorating economy backdrop eg far fewer non SA companies want to buy SA assets at all in current climate - not to mind an assets like Lonmins - or black empowerment share ownership rules etc. - and I don't have a clue how to quantify any one not to mind all of these variables together .. so it's stand on sidelines and watch for a few months time for me (with a now very small position still here for me )
onedb1
15 Nov 2017
Still Long here 1.25p in the money will need patience and some confirmation for investors to jump back in . Asset impairment issue will be interesting Yet on the plus side : Rand 14.4Palladium following so far a correct correction ( I used EWs for commodities and expect this to go higher than $1050 . ) Platinum most importantly holding up well in the $930s )From a cash perspective all the above is positive for LMI and the current quarter should continue the good trend we have had lately . Little Risk on for me here . Stress this is risky and am not in with more than 1 position ( out of 4) Good luck
onedb1
13 Nov 2017
Rand at 14.5 now Significantly above the 13.1 average rate in the previous quarter. That can't be a bad thing , it helps a lot if they get a reasonable result with the unions too Hence my gamble at 65p .
MyHobby
12 Nov 2017
What's the crux of the issue? I've been reading this and other boards (LSE/ADVFN). I'm only registered here though.Cash from operations to service debt payments does not seem to be the immediate problem. Having said that free cash flow is potentially under pressure mid-term because they have a large, unionised direct labour force. It would be hard to cut that force because of union resistance, and because their mines are geologically more labour intensive than other operators. However, more pressing than cash flow seems to be whether covenants are breached, one or more of which arebased on Total Net Worth. TNW itself has been hard to assess, because of (I'm guessing) fluctuations in and the long-term direction of the Rand and Platinum prices. If they have an asset sale (of as yet undeveloped mines), would it be at fire sale or would a fair price? Is this a fair assessment? Boards seem to be polarised between "it's going to rocket" vs. "it's going bust". The situation may not be ideal but I'd like to fully understand the immediate vs. mid-short term risks first. In a strange way, I feel I've been here before with Taylor Wimpey in 2008-9 at 10p. I bailed far too early then. But hey it's not LONMIN.D
onedb1
09 Nov 2017
Re: Little update My final sell was at 72p as per post . I had 3 out 4 positions ( my strategy's maximum) and some was sold at 80p to manage to stay break even . My error was not to have a trailing stop as I was in profit by quite a healthy margin , I sadly made a big error of execution . I felt the pain . Back in at 65p with 1 position now. Rand touched 14.3 . Palladium is well over $1000 ( touched 1026 today ) Platinum $937 seems to be improving a little bit every day now. The impairment is on an asset basis not a cash basis and we have seen them increasing cash levels . So its all to be seen what the asset value will be . If am wrong am wrong , its part and parcel of trading . As am sure you know . if you are right , well done on holding out.
shugg1e
09 Nov 2017
Re: Little update you only sold at 70p the other day there will be plenty of time to re enter when the chart levels out for a few months
