onedb1
06 Nov 2017
Worded to scare ? Now whilst Lonmin $1.1bn asset convenant maybe under review for having gone close. Pessimist calls are possibly over done here IMO . I got stopped out as am mostly a trader but I spent time looking at the positves too. Go short if that is what some think but I have a few points that need to be considered . 1) The last few quarters have all been generating increasing cash flows on a net basis. At the moment Lonmin is worth about $250m with $103m net cash postion and another $150 as a loan which combined gives ample cash Half the current assets are in cash now . 2) Rand is at 14.2ish last I checked on Friday and this morning too and showing a bearish trend vs the US . So that plays in the mine's favour. 3) Palladium which accounts for about a fifth of revenues is on a beautiful trend and now at $1000 , a $100 higher than the average rate achieved in the 4th quarter . Palladium seems unstoppable for now. The Rand in the last quarter averaged 13.1, now thanks to the poor South African economic data the Rand bounced up to 14.2 . Which is significant . I can't see the trend revert as anyone who follows South Africa knows that the economy is getting worse and vs the USA growing at 3% it's a tough call. Could do with platinum moving towards $1000 too now . Chart appears to show bottoming so hopefully it reignites upwards So as we have seen net cash generation continues . If the review keeps the net asset values at close to $1.1bn I don't see why Lonmin won't regain what it lost on Friday . I will be watching this hoping to catch and trade a bounce
II Editor
05 Nov 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 6/11/2017 " FTSE this week & the BITCOIN Event (FTSE:UKX) It's only fitting we should be writing this rant on 5th November, a date the UK sadly commemorates the failure of some bloke in bringing justice to politics. In the case of Bitcoin, it feels like ..."[link]
The buzz
05 Nov 2017
Re: Stopped out I am afraid that for a change I tend to agree with shugg1e re Lonmin. I sold out some time ago as I felt that the share price did not offer sufficient scope for capital gain after considering the risks - especially with the very volatile share price ride that I had!! I have, however, kept watch on the price of platinum to see if things are likely to get any better:-[link] is now well below my reference price of $1000oz. Agreed that the US$/Rand exchange rate has recently improved, but is little changed compared to a year ago:-[link] gave the latest costs as R11,524 per PGM ounce, with a return of R11,567 per PGM ounce. This gives no real income to pay down debt, no margin to cover any further falls in the price of platinum/ increase in the unit cost of production - and no wriggle room for investments in the mines etc.So I perceive a real risk of another dilutive rights issue and currently no clear sign of a recovery on the horizon. Not to mention the rather volatile political circumstances and my perception of a not very supportive mining regime for foreign mining companies. As an aside, the price of gold is often an indicator of where platinum is likely to go, and currently it is not showing much enthusiasm to go above $1300oz, so I do not see much chance of platinum rising very much in the short term. To conclude - I would not consider buying back into Lonmin at the current share price.The B
scruffee
05 Nov 2017
Interesting ... There have been no erroneous shorting stories over the weekend ................ Just what's been RNS'D from the Company ............. A plunge in Platinum or Bank foreclosure as buyers step back ..... Waiting Game for sure .................. Good Luck.
Ripley94
05 Nov 2017
Speculation of merger with sibanye-stillwater. Jey 80 has posted link to paper in previous post below in same paper today there is an article about this possible merger.Stillwater...... Gold
jey80
04 Nov 2017
BASF [link]
Ripley94
04 Nov 2017
Re: Stopped out In hindsight British bulls site have called this correctly last four calls, they said sell yesterday.They claim last five calls correct but it dipped after they said buy on 5th July.
KALAN
04 Nov 2017
Re: 16p .... The restructuring was a desperate attempt to buy time. They have utilised all the easiest and most profitable areas and still just scraped an operating profit - next year (if Lonmin survives) the cost of production will be more than income as they have to mine less lucrative areas. The only thing that has saved them so far is palladium's strength. They now need platinum to rise quickly to save them (a firesale of their best assets may buy them more time) - the only way that platinum is going to rise is if er um a large producer fails.Look for another pgm producer with a much lower cost base which may profit from the demise of any such large insolvent operator and switch what you have left there -or try to trade the dead cat bounce and then find a pgm producer with a much lower cost base.
scruffee
04 Nov 2017
16p .... The Fundamentals are not there .............. Expecting 16p - 19p with no buyers ........... Good Luck.
SiJambo
04 Nov 2017
Re: Stopped out I'd wait until after the second lot of bad news in a couple of weeks!
shugg1e
04 Nov 2017
Re: Stopped out Brave i will be waiting for it to settle out probably mid to low 60s Back to 40s even better
Ripley94
03 Nov 2017
Re: Stopped out I got some more @ 71p .
jey80
03 Nov 2017
Re: Got stopped at 72p Raise a glass to Lonmin's future lol
jey80
03 Nov 2017
Re: Got stopped at 72p Thanks for the invite, used to live in Shepheds Bush before. Now too far away, lol.
onedb1
03 Nov 2017
Re: Got stopped at 72p am on my phone now on my way to the West end for a beer ! Let me get a onedb1 mail this weekend and I can hopefully respond Alternatively join me for a beer lol ! I'll be in Mayfair soon(ish)
