Nice to Michu
08 Dec 2016
Re: Lekoil confirms oil flow from Otakikpo I'm surprised it's down as little as it is.... indeed this s/p amazes me generally and in a positive way.. versus the mess they have made of this Otakikpo implementation it ticking steadily up as it has in recent times is a breath of fresh air .. recent PoO strength obviously is a big help, granted .. I see that they have not given completion timeframes on that pipeline in this RNS .. in fairness anytime they do give timeframes on this project they miss them badly.. but it would have been nice to at least have some vague idea.. maybe management is thinking the that it would be nice if they had some vague idea too 
I'll admit to taking some profits this morning - sold 15% og holding at open, ahead of fall - but I remain punchily long here and will stay the same until big II start selling.. if they do.. ( I have a few stops from low 20's down )In spite of the endless delays, given the resilience- even strength - of the s/p snf how close they are and the PoO versus their operational cost estimates..I still rate this at least a hold...There are things about this stock that makes me think it could be a real winner..but this is Nigeria .. so anything can happen..DYOR and Good luck to all holders ..
Johandesilva
08 Dec 2016
Lekoil confirms oil flow from Otakikpo LEK celebrating this achievement with a 7% loss!
Johandesilva
07 Dec 2016
Re: Afren "My main concern is that the board is dominated by Nigerians, and having lost money in the fiasco that was Afren, fraud is a big concern. What is your opinion of management?"The entire board of Afren had been white foreign nationalist apart from one token person. There is corruption in Nigeria and share prices have factored this in when doing comparisons.
Nice to Michu
05 Dec 2016
Re: Surprised the sp hasn't collapsed! Thanks for the feedback maxvalue, I may look into the entities a bit more based on your steer.Green Energy International own the Otakikpo licence .. I cut and paste the following from their web siteOwnership Structure of Otakikpo FieldGreen Energy the operator of the Otakikpo field held 100% participating interest in the field. However upon Ministerial consent, Green Energy entered into an agreement with Lekoil Nigeria Ltd to act as technical and Financial partners with 40% participating interest in 2014 subject to Ministerial consent.Also here's a little about them from their web site ( which is opaque.. quelle surprise.. but they say they're indigenous and well connected.. say no more..)[link] see Lek is up again today.. long may it last..and having the biggest institutional FM's on board here says a huge amount to me !but this is NIGERIA so DYOR
MaxValue
05 Dec 2016
Re: Surprised the sp hasn't collapsed! Nice to MichuI agree their structure is far from simple - as I understand it the quoted LEK only own 40% of Lekoil Nigeria, who in turn own 100% of Mayfair. But LEK also have a 90% economic interest in Lekoil Nigeria.Also I believe though their original approx 17% participating / 30% economic interest in OPL310 was held through Lekoil Nigeria when they bought out Afren Oil and Gas Nigeria taking their overall interest to 40% participating / 70% economic they did so through a 100% owned entity.So the fact they appear now to have dropped to only 17% economic held via Lekoil Nigeria is a major step back.With the license holder also mentioning they will now be looking to farm out the license - this doesn't seem to be something which is going to be resolved easily or quickly.I think without OPL 310 LEK is a totally different prospect. The risk/reward profile changes significantly.With respect to Otakikpo, have they received ministerial consent or are they again expending $m's without having their rights to the actual assets certified?IMHO, DYORMV
Nice to Michu
02 Dec 2016
Re: Surprised the sp hasn't collapsed! Maxvalue, I am confused too but note that Lekoil's main entity is incorporated in Cayman and there is also Lekoil Nigeria and (Lekoil) Mayfair (and a I think they may have a separate entity for Namibia and for LekGas and maybe others too for all I know ) So how all these fit together in determining how much of OPL 310 'Lekoil' altogether holds is the key question in my mind... also there are ongoing court/ Nigerian government activities in play around the ownership of OPL 310 too.. so it's a very complicated picture, clearly.There are some of the worlds biggest Fund Managers owning significant amounts of this stock and if/when they start selling so will I .. but they haven't .. indeed the s/p is actually going up.. so I'm trusting their research and understandings here as I wouldn't have a chance of gaining those insights no matter how hard I tried ( so I haven't tried very hard ) PS; The fact they haven't updated on Otakikpo in November is farcical .. but Institutional Investors may 'somehow' have a good insight as to what's on there and seem to be ok with it... ( the fact Otakikpo the project is over a year late - on a slated one yearish project - seems more farcical again ...etc)Welcome to Nigeria and have a nice weekend.
MaxValue
02 Dec 2016
Surprised the sp hasn't collapsed! Re the OPL310 RNS.They seem to have lost a massive chunk of the jewel in their portfolio.We are told they've now received ministerial consent for a 17.14% economic interest in OPL310.Whereas I think the previous position was 40% participating interest and 70% economic interest! Considering they've spent over $112m so far on OPL310 this is significant to say the least.Also I'm wondering when Optimum talk about making a claim against Afren for $2.5bn, do they mean Afren Plc or the Afren Oil and Gas which LEK bought for $13m?Think LEK need to issue more details urgently.IMHO, DYORMV
Contrariwise
01 Dec 2016
Re: Looks like Nov go live now.. Looks like a Dec go live now..... or Jan or Feb etc etc
NewKOTB
24 Nov 2016
Re: Looks like Nov go live now.. "The forecast of 10k bopd by year end is looking in danger." .....This is Africa, we could have been producing over 10k for sometime, off the books !!!Nothing like good old cash in hand.But, yes, this is getting laughable atm, they need to start reporting where exactly the hold-up is.imo
Contrariwise
24 Nov 2016
Re: Looks like Nov go live now.. Nearing the end of November and no news on Otakikpo. On 15th September the company were saying that they expected first production "in a few weeks". We are now over 2 months on. Anyone know how things are progressing? The forecast of 10k bopd by year end is looking in danger.
NewKOTB
22 Nov 2016
OPL 310 CPR On It's Way An OPL 310 Operations update follows; • The OPL 310 license is an upper cretaceous play in the West African Transform Margin. Most of the prospects are in water depths of 100 to 800 meters, where in 2013 included the successful drilling of an exploration well (Ogo-1) and its planned sidetrack (Ogo-1 ST). The block extends from the shallow water continental shelf near the city of Lagos extending to the deep-water. • The Ogo-1 well encountered a gross hydrocarbon section of 524ft, with 216 feet of net stacked pay while the Ogo-1 ST well encountered the same reservoirs as Ogo-1 in addition to the syn-rift section which encountered a 280 feet vertical section gross hydrocarbon interval. Owing to well data collected from the two wells, the partners estimated P50 gross recoverable resources to be at 774 mmboe across the Ogo prospect four-way dip-closed and syn-rift structure.• Geophysical works including a 1,505 square kilometer 3D seismic acquisition program, representing nearly 80 per cent of the block, and interpretation has been completed. Commissioning of a full-field Competent Persons Report has begun. • Drilling of two appraisal wells and two exploration wells is expected to begin in early 2017. Appraisal wells will focus on prospects around the Ogo discovery that have been de-risked following the completion of seismic interpretation of multiple horizons. • Engineering and design for an early production system are on-going with hydrocarbon evacuation and facilities options being finalized. • Technical and financial activities continue to be led by the Optimum Petroleum executive team following the termination of its technical services agreement and Joint Operating Agreement with Afren Investments Oil & Gas (Nigeria) Limited ("Afren"
in July 2015. • A strategic farm-in process is expected to commence in 2017 as an option for full field development financing in parallel with appraisal and exploration drilling.
Nice to Michu
22 Nov 2016
Re: OPL 310 Good news, I think.. but as often with Lekoil I'm confused:On their website there is a map of Lekoil interests where it says Lekoil have a 70% economic Interest in OPL 310Alongside on a commentary section it says the following: Asset stage - Appraisal, OPL 310Description/ Lekoil stakeOPL 310Lekoil Nigeria acquired 30% economic interestNon-operated stakeNow a Lekoil subsidiary called Mayfair is granted a 17.14% economic interest by Nigerian Government department.I've read elsewhere that issues around the acquiring of Afrens OPL310 interests are mired in the courts..Help please : How does all this fit together and what total economic interest has Lekoil actually now got in OPL 310? PS: Why have Lekoil not RNS'd this too?PSS: When is Otakikpo actually going to be live .. some say this is only a few weeks late.. I say it's well over a year late from original plans.. and that's on a project originally slated to take a year(ish) to complete Welcome to Nigeria... and have a nice day. Ps; Go live on
NewKOTB
22 Nov 2016
OPL 310 "OPL 310 Operations and Partner Update Optimum Petroleum, operator of Oil Prospecting License (OPL) 310 in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, announces an operations update for activities related to the development of the block which includes the world class Ogo discovery. The Operator also announces that conditional Ministerial Consent has been granted to its new minority partner, Mayfair Assets and Trust Limited ("Mayfair", a subsidiary of Lekoil Limited ("Lekoil", for a 17.14 per cent economic interest in OPL 310. The Operator wishes to appreciate the position of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources as demonstrated by the Department of Petroleum Resources ("DPR". In resolution of these issues and with the support of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Operator has agreed to the entry of Mayfair and a conditional consent has been granted to Mayfair by the Federal Republic of Nigeria's Honorable Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (HMSPR) on 24 October 2016 for a 17.14 per cent economic interest in OPL 310. Pursuant to the assignment, consent shall be effective upon Mayfair's payment of 2.5 per cent of the transaction purse to the Federal government and the signing of an agreement with the Operator. In line with the Ministerial guidance on this issue, Optimum Petroleum remains resolute in finalizing an agreement for the 17.14 per cent assignment and to define the rights and obligations of both parties for the optimal development of OPL 310 without further delay. The Operator, however, can make no assurances for the successful completion noting that negotiations have been ongoing since 2013 and that plans for a well to be spudded in early 2016 were not completed. To date Optimum Petroleum has not executed an agreement nor received payments as detailed in a 24 October 2015 non-binding term sheet. "[link]
Nice to Michu
14 Nov 2016
Re: Interesting that go live late and sp up Sods law... as soon as I say that it comes off meaningfully.. In fairness so have plenty of other oilers on further PoO weakness from fear of OPEC not reaching a meaningful agreement in coming weeks.This project has clearly been a real struggle for these guys.. Hopefully we're close to a go live RNS
Nice to Michu
14 Nov 2016
Interesting that go live late and sp up If this share ownership was dominated by retail investors I'd expect this SP would have come well off at this stage.But it's dominated by Institutional Investors and not only is it not going down but it's going up decently. Why? Perhaps because they are getting word 'on the quiet' that go live is all but there and an announcement of such is almost upon up.As ever, two sets of rules, one for II's and one for RI's, I expect.I'd therefore be surprised if we don't have that go live RNS some day this week..
