tiltonboy
24 Aug 2015
Re: analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p Managed to speak to Crystal Amber today, and got some more info, but nothing specific.
thirty fifty twenty
18 Aug 2015
Re: analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p Good news (I think) in that the company did come back today and confirm that it was al of JRE sold. Interestingly the almost apologised for the lack of clarity in the RNS and said they would make clearer in the final results - so I guess that means they had a few enquiries!!Also good news that the price has nudged up since disposals announced.it would seem very likely with the good disposal at INV and assets sold for NAV that they will be able to announce an NAV increase at next results in mid Sept. And with a higher proportion in CASH the discount to NAV should also reduce so that easily justifies >40p I think.Time will tell!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
18 Aug 2015
Re: analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p My digging has failed to glean any further information, only being referred back to information we already know!Looks like we will be in the dark for some time to come.
thirty fifty twenty
17 Aug 2015
Re: analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p tks tb that'd be great to know %.at least it'll be a reference point then can ponder what discount to apply!maybe price rise means a deal happening?
tiltonboy
17 Aug 2015
Re: analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p tft,I've put a call in to someone who has access to the Crystal Amber team, so will see if anything comes back.In the meantime, it's nice to see the price up on a bit of two-way business.
thirty fifty twenty
15 Aug 2015
analysis on stake in INVENERGY - 65p INVENERGY owns 6.6GW of renewable production, with 2.5GW under construction.US comparables SunEdison + TerraForm are valued at: Sun (2016 production 2.2MW, at 15 MV = 4.5bn) = 2 USD per GWTF (2015 production 1.9MW, at 25 MV = 3.2bn) = 1.7 USD per GWBut the news I'd missed was Invenergy have recently sold 90% of .95GW for 2.0bnthat is a valuation of 2.3 USD per GW!! So I think it reasonable to value Inv at 2USD per GW = 13bnand given the pipeline and growth forecast that will be growing at 10-15% p.a. for the next few years.....I don't know what % LEAF own but at 1% that would value the LEAF stake at 130mUSD (65p per LEAF share) !! So it only needs to be at 0.5% to justify the current LEAF share price - particularly as LEAF converts the remaining assets to CASH and reduces any other valuation risk. Ideally LEAF can sell the stake soon but its great to know that the underlying value is growing at 10%-15% a year for the next few years so even allowing for LEAF running costs 'time is our friend'.Does anyone know what % LEAF own of INV - I've had no response from the website?I guess also that the crystalisation of a valuation from the recent 0.95GW transaction will make it easier for LEAF to put a realistic value for the next NAV, though no doubt they will need to apply a discount for it being a stake in a private company. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
thirty fifty twenty
13 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p Good spot - i've send them an email so lets see if any response.I guess in the big scheme it doesn't matter as it is referenced to book value from 31 dec 14.but my own workings had a much higher value on JRE but maybe it is in the non-Inv investments - which with a glass half full approach means that there is more upside (and downside) to the previous disclosed NAV.
tiltonboy
13 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p LEAF have updated their website, and no longer have JRE as a holding!I think we need some clarification of what has been sold!
thirty fifty twenty
13 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p hi tpagreed this is a good RNS. opportunity to be had working out what they didn't say!agree that not clear re JRE though I think logically if the deal had fallen through and they sold part they would have to declare such - so unless there is an update tomorrow I think we can assume that JRE still going through the process. The good news about this being that the NAV is contractually based.So by my analysis 9p = CASH26p = Invenergy - likely upside to NAV10p = JRE (NAV is contractual sale going as planned)7.5p = other investments at recent transaction value but some 52.5prunning costs 2.5p a yeardisposal costs at 4% 2p.so with CASH return post Inv + JRE I see it as 38p+ likely within 12 months26p+10p+9p-(2.5p*2)-2pleaving 7.5p of hard to sell investment with running costs accounted for - prob worth 4p in a fire sale.given that JRE completion now likely within weeks - it could well be 13p distribution by 31 Dec,with the Inv balance coming summer 16.I think given that we are mostly at discounted CASH stage it is worth paying 35-36p as a free / (very limited downside) punt on the likely Inv valuation. it will be very encouraging if some buyer appear at these levels as suspect they will be 'insiders' on Inv true value.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
13 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p tft,Looks like a good result. One thing that isn't clear is on the JRE business. Have they only sold part of it?Any thoughts welcomed.
tiltonboy
12 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p It's not very clear from the website or Crystal Amber's comments what, and how much they actually own. Hopefully JRE news shouldn't be far way.
thirty fifty twenty
12 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p hi tbagree that Invenergy probably worth more than 25p, I used that as the latest book value, especially if there turns out to be a trade buyer. It is this one that tempted CRA's original interest. I've not been able to find out what % LEAF own - do you know?Johnston I am assuming is in the bag now.look forward to next upda
tiltonboy
12 Aug 2015
Re: analysis of realised value at 34p 3520,I managed to pick up some stock at 25p from Woodford's sale, but admittedly this only averages my stock from 50p.I'm hoping that Invenergy will be worth a bit more than 25p, but equally have not factored any value in to the others, apart from Johnstown. Cash will be dwindling as fees come out, but I would be comfortable with an end result just over 40p.
thirty fifty twenty
12 Aug 2015
analysis of realised value at 34p LEAF has NAV of 49p with FX at 1.55but there seems to be much protected downsidewith a reasonable chance of upside as deals are completed within the next 6 monthsof the 49p =6p in CASHc.3p for smaller investments already soldc.8p for JRE which is awaiting regulatory clearance - i.e. still some risk, though since this has been ongoing since Jan 15 I assume the risk is materially less.c.4p a share a Leigh which has been making positive press releases25p for Invenergy - this is the only asset that LEAF has continually increased in valuation over several years and a flotation is expected in 2016. Environment is more favourable for renewables from US and Globally.c.4p other assets that have been proving difficult to sell.of 34p share price.c. 17p is CASH25p + in one investment held lastest transaction price prior to flotation in 2016.There seems to be a safety margin,even given the spread and realisation costs,especially as transactional news is due within coming months, maybe even weeks.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top 5 hldgs
