thirty fifty twenty
29 Sep 2015
Re: BIG volume traded today thks tbI'm not worried by the big seller as I doubt if there are an 'insider',more likely some-one liquidating due to general market falls.So when (if!0 big seller clears price able to move up to my assessment of market value.happy to hold for 6 month timescale especially in these market conditionsAll IMHO, DYOR + BoL
tiltonboy
29 Sep 2015
Re: BIG volume traded today There's a decent-sized seller around at the moment. All the marks above 39p are buys.
thirty fifty twenty
29 Sep 2015
BIG volume traded today 500k traded by 1pm!!90% of the shares with 4 investors so really only 13m in free float.thus unless we see a shareholding changing RNS that is almost 4% of free float traded...when overhang cleared should enable price to nudge higher more easily if there is any more positive newsAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
29 Sep 2015
Re: at 38p NAV up to 60p+ hi tbcan understand that view re TF deal. I thought maybe share price collapse was due to equity dilution to fund deal / extra debt deal implies. time will tell.the good news from today was I have a stake in INVENERGY (via the 2.3%),which at LEAF market price values INVENERGY at $2.6bn,and per operating agreement will accrue at 21% per annum (10p a year per LEAF)(the level but not the concept disputed by INVENERGY)(my assumptions are they negotiate half way so 5p a year)Summary - I have share of INVENERGY at low valuation that can be sold/bgt from late December onwards which is growth at 12% p.a. (5p / 40p market price).In these markets anything can happen,there is obviously a seller out there,but I had added this morning,L.term wind is growth market in US so actually makes sense that INVENERGY deal with LEAF at the moment. This may be a cheap price for the l.term value of 2.3% but likely to be significantly above current.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my ntop5 hldgs
tiltonboy
29 Sep 2015
Re: at 38p NAV up to 60p+ tft,I am not convinced that the TerraForm transaction will complete. The share price of TerraForm has collapsed from $52 to below $15 yesterday (down 9%).At $15 they are capitalised at $2.3bn.The key to me is the terms of the Put and Call options. Now may not be the time to be a seller of wind assets, and with the effects of el nino likely to be negative this year, we may not be in the driving seat.
thirty fifty twenty
29 Sep 2015
Re: at 38p NAV up to 60p+ hi tbI agree that 4.1bn on INVENERGY seems conservative. Though they have used a discount for time value of money and a discount for uncertainty.I think there is little doubt that the TF deal will complete.The original timetable was stated as Q4.At the time it was stated as c.10% of INVENERGY business (less debt).In reality we don't know and LEAF are not making it easy for us to know.What they choose not to say is...INVENERGY owns x amount of GW, has y amount of GW in development, and is project managing z GW.What we do know is that auditors need to be happy with assumptions.And these assumptions are conservative and reflect the uncertainty.INVENERGY is valued at 56p and the max variation (reported in the accounts) is c.12p.So I see this as the extreme lowest case value backed by the auditors.My personal assumptions and interpretation is a 6p adjustment i.e. NAV of 54p.The discount to NAV is continually narrowing and thus at 15% I put the market price at 46p.To me, this is the minimum.This increases as we get closer to the CASH payments,and there is upside as stated in the accounts of c.12p to take NAV to 72p.So even when/(if0 price reaches 46p in the market,I will run the profits as at that point I see only upside with minimal scenario of downside.Its been interesting so far and look forward to further positive development over the next few months, hopefully including a closing of the TF deal before 21 December.A couple of other positives for me.....1. If the deal doesn't close LEAF has the right to accrue returns at 21% per annum 2. 90% of shares are held with 4 shareholders. So any interest from new pi's will quickly impact the price. I imagine most of the non 90% will hold until the end so in effect there is v.v.little free float.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
29 Sep 2015
Re: at 38p NAV up to 60p+ tft,I tried to do an exercise to value Invenergy Wind, but couldn't ascertain how many MW of assets they currently have. If TerraForm fail to complete, then it might not be right to value at $2bn per MW. The most likely scenario is that the sides agree to a third party valuation if they cannot agree between themselves.I'm wondering if there is a scenario whereby Leaf remain a shareholder, and then try and sell to somebody else. Leaf' valuation implies a $4.1bn value for Invenergy Wind, which appears modest, and their stake maybe an attractive investment for someone else.As you say, an interesting few months ahead.
thirty fifty twenty
29 Sep 2015
at 38p NAV up to 60p+ WOW – they own 2.3% of Invenergy!!!Quite complex details in the results and lots of questions as well as answers,but what we do know…NAV of 60p, 5p to be returned ASAP.They believe they are due a payment of between 56p and 62p from the proposed sale of some of INVENERGY assets to Terra firma. INVENERGY disagree. This relates to c.36m of LEAF’s 40m investment. It is not clear but one might assume that their equity shareholding is entitled to CASH when assets are sold at a compound rate of return of 21% and maybe 23% if before 23 Dec 2015. This, it appears, it a protection payment – i.e. LEAF is a minority shareholder so if assets are sold LEAF is able to claim CASH. LEAF also has the option to ‘approve’ the sale and retain (in full) its 2.3% of INVENERGY. The Tarra Firm deals confirms market valuation of Wind assets at 2bn USD per GW which puts a valuation on INVENERGY of maybe c.9bn USD (LEAF’s 2.3% at 102p a share!!, less a discount for minority ownership)(say 20% to give 80p per LEAF share).To add to the complications a call/put option will exist to value LEAF’s equity by 3rd party.So options….LEAF disagrees to Terra Firma sale and gets a payment of 56p to 62p (I assume loses its equity)LEAF agrees the sale, owns 2.3% of INVENERGY which it can then market maybe worth 80p a share.In the meantime LEAF have valued the 2.3% stake in INVENERGY at 46p.Best scenario…LEAF agrees sale and then INVENERGY agree to buy back the 2.3% equity (assume 46p min). LEAF NAV + worthCASH 7p (worth 5p given 1 year of admin expenses to be incurred)Other investments 8p (worth 6p given some risk of disposal less than asset value)INVENERGY 46p (I find it hard to find a scenario below 40p and most likely over 60p)TOTAL = 51p – 71p (5p now and the rest prob within 6 months)The discount to NAV has reduced steadily to be the lowest since 6 months flotation, should be an exciting few months with little downside.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
28 Sep 2015
Interesting Not quite as clear cut as I had hoped, and certain points need clarifying, but at least there is some background to the shareholding in Invenergy.Significant points I would like to get a better grip on are:1) Why Invenergy have a different understanding of the Operating Agreement2) How robust they believe their valuation of Invenergy is, and that the Third Party valuer will get to a similar valuation (or greater)3) Is the valuation binding?4) What happens if neither the Put or Call are exercised?Pleased with the initial payout, and if agreement can be reached with Invenergy, there appears to be no reason why we can't get most of our investment back early in the New Year.
tiltonboy
19 Sep 2015
Increased turnover Lots of 10 and 20k buys yesterday after the initial markdown. Looks like Liberum have got a tap though, as they continued to offer inside the quote. Hopefully news this week!
thirty fifty twenty
16 Sep 2015
Re: Lehigh news thks TB very interesting.my allocation analysis reckons that LT is in LEAF books at c.6m USD.no idea what % LEAF own. No idea is LT profitable. it doesn't sound profitable!!!what did you make of Simon T's dismissal of LEAF as an investment?TFT
tiltonboy
16 Sep 2015
Lehigh news Looking at the newsflow from Lehigh, we may have another increasingly valuable asset:[link]
tiltonboy
16 Sep 2015
Re: investors chronicle - interesting update Figures were on 18th September last year, so hopefully not too long for an update. It would be nice to think that they will give more detailed updates, and exit timetables for Invenergy, and Lehigh.
thirty fifty twenty
14 Sep 2015
investors chronicle - interesting update ST in the ic covers Crystal Amber the activist shareholder that owns 30% of LEAF.he sings the praises of CRS and highlights 3 investments,that he thinks will allow CRS NAV to continue to grow ahead of the market.re LEAF he talks of the fact that 9p a share is now in CASH,and that INVENERGY which has a significant proportion of book value is undervalued.Interestingly - he states that CRS 'investment advisors' think that INVENERGY is undervalued in the accounts of LEAF. I say interesting b/c in CRS Annual Report they are quite 'crystal (excuse pun) clear that they see INVENERGY as significantly undervalued.Also interestingly he doesn't mention that CRS states that they expect the CASH from LEAF which will be mostly within 12-15mths will be significantly in excess of the current share price - so he respects the mgt but doesn't reference to their view that LEAF is undervalued.And then I find again interesting he says that 'he is not saying to buy LEAF' but that because LEAF is likely to go up - 1 should buy CRS shares!!Just seemed a little odd to me - but them I have holder bias! - any thoughts anyone?All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is a top5 hldg
thirty fifty twenty
08 Sep 2015
CASH will be 'significantly in excess' of 38p Crystal Amber's trading update today was interesting reading.they confirm: less than 2 year timetable (by Mar 17) to convert LEAF assets to CASH,Invenergy transaction valuing each GW at > USD 2bn.Thus Invenergy might be c.14bn, LEAF (at 1%) might be 140m USD less discount.Stake original bgt for 40m USD.They also confirm Leigh will have significant value.There is no mention of the significant CASH balances which are now c.9p a share.They confirm that NAV at 54p is understated,and that CASH returns will be 'significantly in excess' of share price 38p.good progress on realisation discussions so although it might be Mar 17 before ALL assets are disposed of, I think it likely there will be transactional news prior to then.So what price???Well true NAV must surely be > 60p'significant' must surely be 50% above 38p - again getting to 57p,and these valuation reconcile to public available information(assuming LEAF own 1% of Invenergy (seems now it is a convertible instrument) )Paying 42p now to get 60p in 18months (MAX) equates to c.28% p.a.At 48p that reduces to c.18% p.a.So would seem worth closer to 48p now with 1p per month growth as the discount unwinds.MUST emphasise that analysis based on convertible being 1% which roughly ties into the valuations CRA imply, however the potential returns have less 'safety margin' as the price rises if I am slightly out on this assumption.Ironically a bit surprised at the volume this morning. No surprise to see the price marked up based on the CRA trading update, but why would there be significant selling at these levels. Hopefully all well - CRA seem to have good track record.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
