thirty fifty twenty
09 Dec 2015
leaf at 33p fascinating... Invenergy is due to sell c.15% of of its assets to Terraform Power for 2.2bn due to complete before the end of 2015. TRP is is the yieldco of sun edison. At the same time as as the Invenergy deal, Sun was buying some solar assets for also 2.2bn, some of which it was going going to offload to TRP.Since the share prices of all have collapsed thus raising concerns about deals and future growth.Serious concern has now arisen that Sun was only buying the Solar business to get hold of some solar development businesses, for its own benefit, and that it was in effect being detrimental to TRP...This has now blown up into an almighty row......If SUN share price is low, it cannot finance growth or its debt which is a problem, TRP was meant to be high quality investment grade assets financed with high debt, but this was not too much of a problem because the wind assets had good price deals in place with high grade customers.SUN has now replaced some directors on TRP board and this has led to allegations,That it is filling TRP with "yes" men and not acting at arms length.So now some big hedge fund shareholders in TRP have gone very public...They are kicking up a stink about the 2.2bn solar deal and why it is all about SUN interests and is lowering the quality of TRP.SUN has now pulled out of part of the acquisition of the solar business,And TRP has renegotiated the draw down assets for the bits that are being bought...In reaction today .... TRP share price is up 20% to 10.25 USD and 35% above its capitulation low.TRP currently makes enough profit to covers it's debt so all should be fine,Now the shareholders are taking action fit should ensure its back to the original purpose.There could be a big bounce back in TRP if confidence returns that they are full of high quality long term growth assets.But as ever the real fascination is what is not being said......In all the articles, in the public letters from hedge fund shareholders,In bulletin board comments....There is no criticism of the Invenergy deal,there is no doubt expressed that it is over priced, or it will over stretch TRP.the INV assets has top credit rated counter parties (rating: AA) to pay for the wind energy,so it is no surprise that TRP shareholders want those assets.and ultimately I am thinking it is good news that when SUN is being hauled over the coals about 1 deal, there is no mention of the second deal happening at the same time.....I am thus hopeful that the INV deal will still go ahead,and even if it doesn't INV still has good assets which underpins the valuation behind LEAF's 2.3% stake.LEAF at 33p - there has obviously been a seller of roughly 20k of shares every few days....is this person an insider or nervous of an opaque deal with highly indebted US businesses with falling share prices. ....?The market in general is v.cautious so I am thinking it is a nervous seller .....The price is JUST on the 200d so still a valid hold,but given how few shares there are in open hands I think value might not be reflected in share price patterns .Time will tell of course but there is a big valuation gap between share price and reasonable value, so i'm still hopeful to get converted to CASH during 2016 at higher than current price.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
13 Nov 2015
Re: Conference Call e-mail me @hotmail.com, and I will give you a summary.
thirty fifty twenty
13 Nov 2015
Re: Conference Call hi tbthat's very interesting. can you post a summary please?thanks 205030
tiltonboy
13 Nov 2015
Conference Call Just had an interesting 30 minutes on a conference call with other investors speaking to Mark Lerdal. Helped clarify a few points.
tiltonboy
10 Nov 2015
Re: TerraForm Power results [link]
tiltonboy
10 Nov 2015
TerraForm Power results TerraForm figures came out after the close last night. They seem confident that the deal with Invenergy will complete by the year end.
thirty fifty twenty
22 Oct 2015
at 37p ST tips AGAIN in ic! At 37p ST has updated his analysis of CRS - seems like it was only a few days he did the first article....I think there are several positive angles from his article ....1 - it raises the profile of LEAF2 - it demonstrates that CRS are very good active investors. not only have they seen value in LEAF but also they are confident enough to raise the NAV to 60p when there was no need to - i.e. why risk embarrassment unless they were very confident of monetise close to 60p3 - ST must have written accurately the last time, or CRS would have asked him to clarify/change. ST very probably shares the article with CRS before publication for 'accuracy' - he states that a negotiation is likely to be achieved... with sure a safety margin i.e. 23p below NAV which is already likely to be conservative there is room for tough negotiations and LEAF shareholders still much better off than currently.4 - After the article it has brought in some new investors - which is great as there is an persistent seller around at the moment. But the good news is that a small number of buys.... c.50k has caused the price to rise from 35-37p to 38-40p. Most holders are long term, so when the seller is cleared then small trades can impact the price - maybe this is the tipping point before new buyers have to pay a lot more to join the party.5 - IMHO the very fact the shares are illiquid is the opportunity. It means that the price of trading occurs between a small number of investors and may be completely disengaged from the underlying value in the company - obviously I think that is significantly higher than the share price.6- also IMHO - the chart pattern is very favourable. A H&S base, which is less obvious because one needs to adj for the recent material capital return7 - one puzzler.... ST alludes that the payment from the 2GW deal (although disputed) is a windfall... i.e. in addition to the value of the 2.3% stake. I would have thought that it is 'instead of' the equity i.e. its a formula for returning capital is INVENERGY disposes of assets. If it is in any way a windfall it is a HUGE bonus onto of the NAV of 60p+ likely to be realised.22nd December should be an interesting day!! All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
20 Oct 2015
Re: Invenergy Wind valuation An excellent piece of research.The biggest problem for me is how LEAF monetise their investment. Caisse are a long-term partner/investor, who probably haven't got an exit strategy.Invenergy know we want out, so they may be happy to play the long-game, which leaves us in a bit of a quandary.I just hope we can negotiate a deal.
thirty fifty twenty
20 Oct 2015
Re: Invenergy Wind valuation Hi TBP42 of their annual report detail that they spent 1.3bn in 2014 on investments - it list 3 investments...1 - London Array it buys 25% for £644m (say 1.3m CAD dollars)(they pay £4m per MW!!)2 - 15% of indi company for USD 244 (say 300m CAD dollars)3 - so that leaves NIL for INVENERGY... doesn't make sense??maybe they got 24.7% for converting their portfolio stakes - at cost = €600m but that was in 2013,so lets say 10% growth and now at 720m USD - max value for INVENERGY c.3bn USD,LEAF 2.4% = 70m USD!!So that all seems poor news.I take my confidence from CRS and the auditors.There is no logic in CRS inflating NAV,there is no logic in LEAF directors inflating NAV (they get bonus on shareholder returns),so whatever it is worth, on whatever timescale, they sure as heck don't want to look stupid.They had no need to increase the NAV of LEAF PLC - it is a company in wind up with a few large shareholders - no-one cares ..... and the value of the 2.4% stake in INVENERGY was increased c.50%!! - so to me that means that it is a decent honest stab, based on conservative assumptions, and assumptions that auditors would be happy to stand by. They cant just show the auditors a press article as their basis for valuation - they need that to be based on some realistic fact.I think it likely the auditors would have asked for the 120m figures to be included......it would be inappropriate to value at 93m when you have a legal letter drafted arguing that it is worth 120m, so for full disclosure we the shareholders needed this information to be public.C De Q have assets of 220bn, and are one of the largest 20 real estate investors in the world. I am placing trust in ....- the directors of Crustal Amber- the experience of C de Q as well as INVENERGY track record- the plc auditors to verify valuation methodologyand I get all that at a 40% discount to a conservative valuation which operationally is growing at an underlying rate of > 16% per annum!!! (10% p.a. on 40% discounted value)Anyway time will tell.....compared to my analysis of 1,000 other companies on the market this ranks as one of the best to me on a conservative risk/reward basis. the margin for error with a share price at 36.5p and NAV of 60p more than compensates for any known risks, and extended timescales...... All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is I my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
20 Oct 2015
Invenergy Wind valuation If we are to become longer-term shareholders in Invenergy Wind, it might be useful to try and get a handle on their worth. Not certain that it's going to be easy, but it would be interesting to see what price these guys paid for their stake:[link]
tiltonboy
08 Oct 2015
Re: Deutsche Bank buy note I'm not sure that it does send a message that future payouts will be at NAV; they certainly won't be higher. I have had a couple of bad experiences of gradual wind-ups, with GFIR still going.Looking at the news today, I do not believe the TerraForm Power deal with Invenergy will complete. It looks like the relationship between LEAF and Invenergy is not that good either. With that in mind, it could take some time to get agreement between the parties on what the Invenergy holding is worth. Given the collapse in equity prices in the last few months, I wouldn't be surprised if $95 was on the optimistic side.I'm preparing myself for a long haul on this one, unless there is an uptick in yieldco share prices.
thirty fifty twenty
08 Oct 2015
Re: Deutsche Bank buy note 40p quoted ex 5p divi is great news....shares adj was 8.2% of 40p = 3.2p,I expected a bit of a fall off post CASH payment,but price is higher and buyers around......at a simple level its very good news that company decided to do a part redemption at full NAV of 60p, as sends a v.strong signal that future liquidation will also be at NAV (or higher!)agree that financing issues of those business is not great read across,but INVENERGY is well financed and thus not comparable,I am not sure it makes a huge difference if the disposal goes through.LEAF have 2.4% of >6GW of wind and its in the LEAF books at valued at only 600k per GW,when market prices are anything between 1bn and 2bn per GWAll IMHO, DYOR + BoL
tiltonboy
05 Oct 2015
Re: Deutsche Bank buy note This doesn't look so promising:[link]
tiltonboy
05 Oct 2015
Deutsche Bank buy note I will try and get a copy of the note, but this piece of reporting looks promising.[link]
tiltonboy
29 Sep 2015
Re: BIG volume traded today Agreed
