thirty fifty twenty
26 Aug 2016
analysis at 43p i think there is a lot of insight by the rising share price.at a simple level prices rise because there are more buyers than sellers.buys might be either gambler types (in he broadest sense0 thinking there will be a favourable outcome to sale negotiations and third party valuations, or they might be 'insiders' (against in the broadest sense) i.e. those that are able to work to the real value and likely outcome of the sale negotiations.sellers can either be those that think it is just too risky, or have detailed knowledge that price too high, or need to raise CASh for other purposes.still the fact remains that there are more buyers than sellers.i know that i have sold a few times in recent weeks (to reduce a high % holding because of risks)but there are obviously buyers....in summary of my analysis , is that no-one would bother buying into such a risky situation unless they were either gambling or know that actually the valuation should be much higher.i am very encouraged that the buyers are in the dominant,all said however the facts will speak for themselves, and time will tell!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
04 Jul 2016
analysis of favourable court ruling at 36p quite surprised there has not been much reaction yet to several factors...1 - renewable wind assets in the states worth more after 80% oil price rebound2 - LEAF's investments all worth 10% more given fall in GBP FX rate3 - the favourable and unambiguous court ruling gives great 'option' upside to negotiations.the negotiations valued Invenergy at between 73m and 36m(I think assumptions since have changed favourably so putting arbitration at 60m)that would give an average of the 3 at 56m USD + 11m other + 4m CASH less tax and bonus 4m = 67m USD (118m shares)( at 1.35 FX rate) = 40pso current share price more than coveredPLUSlitigation is for 126m USD + interest (= 70p)previously I had valued this outcome at 10% probability = an extra 7p a share;but after the judges very clear ruling I think even moving to 20% is conservative i.e. 14pstill its a great negotiating tool for LEAFso at 36p a CASH return c.35p within 3 mths 'quite' likely and then a free ride on litigation worth anything from 14p to 70p....it seems a great risk / reward (albeit higher risk and higher reward),regardless of UK market and UK economic conditions.additionally I fully expect ST to cover in the ic which will bring the latest news to the attention of more investors. the shares are tightly held so gains really only for the smaller portfolio.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
04 May 2016
analysis at 36p of RNS * 2!!! LEAF announced ths morning that they got the figures wrong yesterday and actually NAV is 43p!! So now it is 43p with good chance of realisation of 35p+ within 6 mths, and a stake in a litigation claim of 100p! *all figures in USD at 31 December invenergy 101m CASH 4m other 4m (investments less tax) total 109m yesterday invenergy 55m CASH 4m other 4m total 63m shares 124m, FX 1.462 = NAV GBP 35p now invenergy 55m CASH 4m other 4m dividend from invenergy 4m no need for mgt bonus provision 2.4m reduction of deferred tax liability 4.6m (seems low??) total 74m shares 118m, FX 1.462 = NAV GBP 43p notes: Invenergy 73m and 36m - average = 55m so its incredible that mgt made FIVE errors!! (INV divi, no of shares, tax, mgt fee provision, general non realisation of the balance sheet items link to INV valuation ) thinking of the actual content of the RNS.... it is NOT good news that the valuations are so low, but it is good news that getting updates (all indicates that repayments within 6 months) and it is good news that we have confirmed a stake in litigation for 75p a share so whats it worth..... on this information I think the next payout will be invenergy + spare CASH = 36p litigation at 10% = 8p (assumes no refund of litigation fees) (assumes NIL value in other investments) So I think 44p is fair value by the end of 2016 - that's worth paying 38p for now given risks. 6p upside is invenergy, 2p to 4p upside in other investmetns 3p downside on invenergy valuation and the litigation is just a wild card! all IMHO, DYOR + BoL LEAF is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
22 Dec 2015
Re: let battle commence agree it is all a bit of a black box,and that is scary.For me going back to basics gives comfort....1 - the underlying business is very successful, well financed and growing with the benefit of Paris global renewable initiatives.2 - valuation of $95USD put on business by auditors and lawyers 6 mths ago pre TF transaction confirmation, and knowing the disputed element of Operating Agreement.The breakeven point to support 35p share price is only $45 million!!So to me seems a great safety net, there are risks, it might take time (which works in our favour as INVENERGY growing) and I have holder bias! Time will tell......Encouraging to see price hold at 34p with decent volume this morning...All IMHO, DYOR and BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
22 Dec 2015
Re: let battle commence I would love to know how the process works from here on, and what the potential costs are.
thirty fifty twenty
22 Dec 2015
Re: let battle commence Indeed TB,it is battle and this is only the start.Although it might take 12 months or more,I think it makes sense to play hard ball.Invenergy won't want their reputation through the courts surely,and LEAF happy to deal at €95m, being book value.I assume the call/put still goes ahead.And that theoretical value will have interest accruing when court decides.Even if LEAF loose I don't think the result affects the value of equity stake.And the big comfort blanket for me is that Invenergy will be growing at well over 10% a year,so as time goes by the 36p per LEAF share becomes better value.ALL IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
22 Dec 2015
let battle commence Pleased to see LEAF take early action. After speaking to ML, I wasn't convinced that he would go the legal route.Let's hope their case is strong, and we do not get bullied out of it.
thirty fifty twenty
21 Dec 2015
at 37p - happy start of disposal day! well I don't expect the disposal confirmed today!but hopefully the 'put option' will be exercised today,and within 6 to 12 mths INVENERGY will be monetised...i'd be impressed if LEAF issue an RNS saying they have exercised the put,as it shows it is 'material' and also that they 'care about' shareholder information.Time will tell!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
16 Dec 2015
Re: TerraForm Power/Invenergy closure loving the optimism!!it could be exciting - based on any normal calculation it seems very very under valued,but it is an odd situation so time will tell.the CEO of Invenergy sold out of his previous business,so any float, PE sale, further assets sales or otherwise of Invenergy likely in medium term,and I think its in Invenergy interest to give the 2.3% a high valuation as it then gives a high valuation for the c.60% the CEO owns... inverse logic know and all academic.still all just speculation until sold - will be interesting to see if ST changes his neutral stance,CRS shares holding up very well in the market falls too.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs
tiltonboy
16 Dec 2015
Re: TerraForm Power/Invenergy closure Fantastic news. Now they should get rid of those noisy little perishers that are LEAF Clean Energy, with a tasty cash offer for their stake. Lets call it a nice round $ per share!
thirty fifty twenty
16 Dec 2015
Re: TerraForm Power/Invenergy closure hi tilton boy - looks like our posts posted at the same time.great news and backed up by 50% bounce from lows in TRP and SUNE share prices in the states in recent days.
thirty fifty twenty
16 Dec 2015
at 33p deal closes at 2.2m per MW << Back Deal goes through - excellent news!!!!There are many positive angles for this.....1 - INVENERGY has CASH2 - it is a recent transaction which must be included when LEAF put their 2.3% stake3 - it shows that despite being very active shareholders in TRP, the hedge funds wanted these assets at these prices4 - it quantifies at c. 2.2m per MW!!!5 - it demonstrates Invenergy assets are of the highest quality AA + longest term supply contracts.....Using 2m per MW puts an value on Invenergy of AT LEAST $5.2bn(6.5GW * 2) less est. $8bn debt. (this level of debt similar to TRP)The reality is that Invenergy debt is about 2bn less, and there are development assets, but I am using a conservative calculation.at 5.2bn this values LEAF 2.3% stake AT LEAST at 120m (66p per LEAF plc share),so even at a 50% discount (hard to see why such a discount) the current share price is covered,there would be no performance fee payable and there still are residual assets recently valued at 8p a share but I would value at 4p a share.running costs are c.1.5p a yearSo even if takes 12 months for a deal - it would seem that CASH of 35p would be a reasonable assumption for MINIMUM.Working on selling out at a 30% discount gives a CASH return of 48p (+ 40% from here with what would seem to be very little downside risk) Although it might take time, there seems to be little downside, +40% upside in 12 months and possibly more if stake sold at any sort of realistic valuation for Invenergy.Even after recent sales of 300k shares at 32p and 33p , the market has seized up to buy 5,000 shares at 36p!!Have the sellers have disappeared? All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLEAF is in my top5 hldgs========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== =TerraForm Power Announces First Closing of the Acquisition of 930 MW of Wind Power Plants From Invenergy BETHESDA, Md., Dec. 16, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TerraForm Power, Inc. (Nasdaq:TERP), an owner and operator of clean energy power plants, today announced the closing of its acquisition of 832 megawatts (net) of wind power plants from Invenergy Wind LLC ("Invenergy"
, the largest independent wind owner in the United States. A second closing for an additional 98 MW (net) of power plants is expected by April 2016. This acquisition adds a sizeable, high-quality contracted power plant portfolio to the TerraForm Power fleet.“The addition of these high-quality wind power plants further strengthens the TerraForm Power fleet,” said Brian Wuebbels, TerraForm Power's chief executive officer. “It increases our fleet size by 48%, from 1.9 GW to 2.8 GW. On a pro forma basis, it extends our average remaining contract life from 16 years to 17 years. It improves the average counterparty credit rating from A- to A, and it increases our North America focus with the US and Canada now representing 83% of the total fleet, up from 75% at the end of the third quarter.”Portfolio Key Metrics* Size 7 wind farms comprising 930 MW (net ownership) * Status 832 MW operational, 98 MW expected to reach commercial operation and financial close by April 2016 * Location 852 MW in the US (Nebraska, Illinois, Texas) and 78 MW in Canada (Ontario) * Contract life 19 years remaining life (weighted average) * Off-taker rating AA (weighted average) * Off-takers TVA, Omaha Public Power District, Lincoln Electric System, City of Grand Island, Ontario Power Authority, Merrill Lynch Commodities * Turbines 100% GE Acquisition Financing $801 million Non-recourse project debt assumed or incurred in connection with the acquisition $417 million Pro rata portion of new $500 million non-recourse term loan $744 million C
tiltonboy
16 Dec 2015
TerraForm Power/Invenergy closure [link]
tiltonboy
10 Dec 2015
Re: leaf at 33p fascinating... No doubt about those trades though!
tiltonboy
09 Dec 2015
Re: leaf at 33p fascinating... The news today was indeed very welcome, and while I expected the Invenergy sale to TERP to go through, some doubt had started to creep in given the commentary in the press. Big question now is whether Invenergy will play ball with LEAF. I have not spoken with Mark Lerdal since he resigned from TERP, and it would be interesting to see if matters have progressed.Armed with a thick wedge of cash, surely Invenergy will try and get rid of a minority shareholder that may turn noisy!The 10k seller has been around for months, and I struggle to comprehend the trading style. Given the times of the trades today, I thought it might have been a cross of some sorts rather than two sales.I'm still a seller in the low/mid 40's in the absence of any further news.
