Wexboy
04 May 2016
TGISVP - Kerry Group 2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part I):Company: Kerry Group (KYG:ID)Last TGISVP Post: Here (also, see here & here)Market Cap: EUR 14,280 MPrice: EUR 81.15KYG’s price rally & current multiple suggests an outstanding earnings record. In fact, for many shareholders, that’s a given…I wonder if they ever check the figures!? The reality’s actually quite different, as I’ve highlighted before: While Kerry’s trading margin has steadily improved (from 9.4% in 2011, to 11.5% in 2015), it’s based on underlying revenue growth of just 3.1% pa in the last 5 years – which translates to a declining trend in adjusted EPS growth of 11.1% in 2011, an average 10.0% in 2012-2013, and an average 8.2% in 2014-2015. Somehow…that’s worth a 27 P/E?! Aahh go on, sell me another story…Yeah, I know: Kerry has an incredible growth trajectory ahead as it migrates from Consumer to its higher margin Taste & Nutrition business, cranks up its acquisition machine, benefits from increasing economies of scale, yada yada. But that was the pitch five years ago, and also ten years ago…how much longer will investors ignore actual feedback? At this point, they’d do well closing their ears (to the story) & opening their eyes (to the actual figures).Noting a predictable shortfall in Kerry’s operating FCF, a 1.0 P/S multiple (on €6.1 billion of revenue) is adequate for its current 11.5% trading margin. With net finance cost just under 10% of trading margin, an additional €0.7 billion debt adjustment is appropriate – which we’ll haircut by 50%, as usual. As for earnings, Kerry lacks the growth to deserve a premium multiple, but obviously has a stable/high quality business & enjoys consistently positive investor sentiment, so a 12.0 P/E is warranted
EUR 3.015 Adj Dil EPS * 12.0 P/E + (6,105 M Revenue * 1.0 P/S + 714 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 176 M Shares) / 2 = EUR 36.45Kerry is ridiculously overvalued, a dangerous blue chip if I ever saw one…not that I’ll persuade many of its devoted fans. But the greater the multiple & blind faith it enjoys, the more it risks being felled, if/when an abrupt change in sentiment finally hits…as we saw with Aryzta. Which doesn’t mean I’d necessarily advocate KYG as a short – many of its shareholders are buy & hold types, who are pretty oblivious to price & valuation, so it might require really serious/unexpected bad news to actually provoke a crisis of confidence. Or perhaps the shares end up trading sideways for years on end, with buyers slowly drifting away…if so, and shareholders think my call on Kerry was wrong, they’re bloody welcome!Price Target: EUR 36.45Upside/(Downside): (55)%For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.
