richtwo
27 Jan 2017
tax bills would it be naieve (please excuse the spelling) to suggest lots of small sales to help meet Jan 31 ta bills?
Tommoo
26 Jan 2017
Re: EIB & all The sporadic news DD appears to be falling on deaf ears I must therefore presume. ?In any event there is a prevailing lack of belief, in any short term success stories.Hence my desire for more positive and aggressive marketing.Onward ever onward as ever , but for now .....not sadly upwards.Tommoo.
DevonianDracula
26 Jan 2017
Re: EIB & all Dear Tommoo,I fear that your name has been taken in vain and set up in the pillory on the village square. Look to the RNS of 16/01/2017:Cash generation has improved QoQ since Q2;Spot prices have been rising for the last nine months;Average KMR realised prices have lagged the spot market, agreed prior to the market surge;Average prices for H1 2017 will show a significant improvement on 2016.I am not shouting "cocorico" as I am not a Frenchman, but still!
Tommoo
25 Jan 2017
Re: EIB & all What frustrates me about KMR, is its seemingly impossible ability to provide shareholders , with any positive, or encouraging news.There has been a strengthening of mining prices, but Kenmare appear to have been forgotten, which I believe is down to their lack of 'PR'.The company at least for the short term, has been underpinned financially, and only need prices to firm, for there to be some modicum of optimism. In essence they have a good potential upside to portray, so why not broadcast it ?Your's in frustration.Tommoo.
DevonianDracula
24 Jan 2017
Re: EIB & all LSE BB,Page 7 of the prospectus shows the EIB with 29,279,645 old shares (1.05%) before the MD and that EIB would have held 8.45% post the OO, if other shareholders had not subscrided under the OO. Similarly, the EAIF would have held 3.34%.Some share were taken up in the OO, so their % holdings were scaled back a bit.
DevonianDracula
21 Jan 2017
RNS on Monday? Friday saw three big trades totalling 1,752,318 shares. It seems likely, although by no means certain, that these were sales by locked in lenders. With trades of 400,000, 451,753 & 900,565 shares, if any one was made by the EIB, it is likely that their holding would have dropped below a round % number, in which case that must be disclosed. If the sales were made by the other lender, their holding as posted on the dark side was less than 3%, so no disclosure is required.Assuming that these were sales by the lenders, the market seems to be absorbing them well and the overhang has been reduced. Given this, I am a little less concerned about a potential drop back on the sale of what had been about 9.8% of the shares. Bring on completion of the sales of all lender shares, when the trading liquidity of the shares could be greatly increased, and the share price free to move (up or down) on the basis market sentiment, pricing news & KMR disclosures! GLA
DevonianDracula
20 Jan 2017
Re: EIB & all Did the poster on the darkside get the end to the lock-in wrong by a day or two? High volumes have gone through since I posted that!
DevonianDracula
20 Jan 2017
EIB & all An interesting post on the darkside, but too much inter-stellar chaff to dig out and link here! Post MD, the EIB had circa 7.1% of KMR capital, while a branch/offshoot of the IMF, or was it the World Bank had about 2.7%. Key point was that the 179 day lock-in expires this weekend. May be right, may be off by a few days, but little difference.As off sometime next week, up to almost 10 million KMR shares may come on the market, increasing trading liquidity, but potentially weighing on the share price. The EIB has to disclose every drop through a round % holding, until they disclose a holding below 3%. The other could just flog & run.It will be fascinating to see volumes & prices next week. Do they, in effect, say that 340, 350 or 360p, or whatever, is a good return on their haircuts, or do they hold out for more for whatever projects they may have?You can chew the fat on that all weekend, etc, but will you be any the wiser? GLA
DevonianDracula
19 Jan 2017
LSE-Supaman Supaman, Look to the guidance on cash costs of production, between US$ 131 & 140 per tonne, look to H1 total costs of goods sold which include depreciation and amortization of deferred resource development costs, then look at other operating costs which are largely cash costs included in the abave cash costs per tonne. Finally, below those you have finance costs of roughly US$3 million in H2, and that is about it.I do not expect US$ 150 per tonne for H1 2017, as some contracts could be for 12 months, fixed price, and I am not certain as to how a price of circa US$160 CIF to China would convert to FOB Mozambique, so I would look to about 140 for ilmenite. However, the recovery of both zircon, & in particular rutile, has increased very substantially over the last 12 months. They may be selling at or above US$ 800 per tonne, so the 68,200 tonnes of zircon & 7,800 tonnes of rutile produced in 2016 may well have produced revenues not far off the revenues from the 903,300 tonnes of ilmenite produced in 2016.Look to 2017 production guidance %s, in particular for rutile, and the %s should be that much higher. Then, stop, think, put together a spreadsheet, then, perhaps, post your correction!!
DevonianDracula
19 Jan 2017
Re: wakey wakey maybe Indy,1) spreads have narrowed since perhaps 10 days ago;2) still too high;3) avoid early doors;4) wait for EIB & other lenders to start selling down the roughly 10% of equity that they are locked into for a few more days? That should start removing an "overhang" and add significantly to the real free float. My shares are "locked in" at these levels and I am sure the same is true for many other holders!2x 320p or thereabouts, and I might unlock a few. GLA, but a weakish buy until the bankers are out!!
indolent
19 Jan 2017
Re: wakey wakey maybe How much of quick ups and downs are gobbled up by the spread ....a) prime spread times of the day?b) in the middle of the day?c) when something happens then it's a deep spread regardless of the time of day?Thanks in advance should anyone here care to indulge me.
Nice to Michu
17 Jan 2017
I stupidly missed this mornings update And have only read it now .. positive .. and hence I now understand why the rally .. apologies.... but what I said in previous email stands ..hopefully sellers are limited and demand now causes a an up movement that's meaningful ..todays 10 per cent a start .. but there's plenty of room for more upside her
Nice to Michu
16 Jan 2017
wakey wakey maybe with large chunks of stock in few - mostly Institutional - hands this is illiquid and can go up or down quickly on relatively insignificant volume.. we've already seen a meaningful quick up and then a meaningful quick down since the refinancing/consolidation and with ilmenite prices very strong in recent months we're hopefully due a meaningful quick up again now.. and if next update gives strong forward guidance then those who could sell will likely hold off doing so for a good while and we'll see keen buyers against a small amount of available stock backdrop quickly drive up the s/p meaningfully.. this might even turn into a very significant upward spiral ... hopefully ...weak buy instead of strong as this is always a tricky sob
Tatty
16 Jan 2017
Re: LSE-Impairments, etc Assets can be revalued as well as impaired. Technical point. But it would have to be a very volatile market for any assets impaired due to loss in market value to be subsequently revalued!
DevonianDracula
15 Jan 2017
LSE-Impairments, etc Guys on LSE.Please remember that impairments under IFRS are recognised "when needed" and cannot be reversed later. Consequently, if as of 31/12/2015, there was a perceived need to write down inventory values to the then expected net realisable sales value, then that is that, and may have been done. Similarly, if a serious analysis of the net present value at that date of turning sand into saleable ilmenite, zircon & rutile, was lower than the capitalised value at that date of PPE and deferred "development expenditure" on KMR's 100 year sand-pit resource, then the differential should have been booked as an impairment. Once done, those can never be reversed.As for the idea that H2 2016 EBITA will be about the same as that of H1, I hold my head in my hands & try not to despair. Look to the guidance on cash cost per tonne for 2016 of circa US$131 to 140 (could be wrong on those, but we will have indications soon). Those compare to "actual" cash costs per tonne of US$ 153 in H1 2016, so H2 cost per tonne would have to be substantially lower to meet guidance (guidance could have been produced during a night out with the Donald, of course).H2 in profit, after a chunky H1 loss? Who knows, so wait & see. Still, inventory presold as of 30/6/2016 was at an average price of a shade over US$121 per tonne, and if that was exclusively forward sales of ilmenite (probable but far from certain), then the average realised sales price per tonne in H2 should be well in excess of the average cash cost of production in H2.With the MD in late July 2016, the annual interest charge was drastically reduced, and the haircut agreed by the lenders should probably give rise to a positive net income for 2016.Looking to 1017, where we are now, ilmenite sales prices appear to have increased substantially since the bottom of the sandpit levels of late March 2016, and are already way above the levels when H2 sales prices for ilmenite were agreed and fixed in May/June 2016, so H1 2017 should show a great improvement of H2 2016 in sales revenue, net income & EBITA, EDIBTA, etc! GLA
