Kinyara Bill
14 Mar 2017
Positive! Resource competition possibly caused by sizzling pigment marketMar.13 2017 Source:ruidowKeywords:tio2 pigmentThanks to the sizzling titanium pigment market, ilmenite price could go higher and higher, almost depleting inventory. However, hot pigment market may not necessarily bring benefits to the whole industry. Some slag manufacture manager disclosed that slag price hike was dwarfed by ilmenite price surge. Rising price of pigment boosted ilmenite price, thus affecting slag manufacturing costs, which, unfortunately, could hardly be accepted by downstream users. Meanwhile current slag price is the highest downstream could afford. Even if ilmenite could climb up further, slag price would remain unchanged, weighing heavily on slag manufactures. Generally speaking, instead of benefiting from the ilmenite price hike, slag manufactures is facing short supply of its feedstock. When ilmenite continues going up, slag manufactures could hardly afford it as most will go to pigment application. While slag price grows, TiCl4, sponge and milled products will all have to adjust prices unavoidably. In terms of supply side, supply changes from southwest will cause short supply in domestic market in H1 2017. What’s worse, western miners also noticed this change and are bargaining harder than before. If pigment market could maintain its current operation rate, ilmenite supply crisis could happen again in China in the next five years, possibly boosting ilmenite price to an unpredictable high level. And signs of such are accumulating. Of pigment, slag, sponge and reduced titanium, those who cannot raise price to offset rising costs might lag behind. Feedstock security is expected to be top priority for each industry participants.
DevonianDracula
09 Mar 2017
Storm warning? From the BBC:[link] hope it is not too bad for either Madagasca or Mozambique!
DevonianDracula
09 Mar 2017
Shipping costs Bucklerfern posted a very useful resource over on the lse bb:[link] it does not include Moma as a port of lading, or ilmenite as a product shipped, it indicates that as of January 3rd, it indicates that shipping coal from Richards Bay, South Africa to Qingdao in China would cost circa US$9.00 per tonne shipped. Also, that the daily time charter cost would be circa US$5,000. The latter figure is relevant as it could take a couple of days to tranship product from the loading jetty, while a ship may have to wait at anchor for a few days when the seas are to rough.Still, if you take US$20 off the current US$210-220 CIF China price, you are still left with a very handy FOB price per tonne. We may see some juicy spot sales in H1, while the outlook for H2 is very rosy. GLA
DevonianDracula
02 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices-Correction? I think that I should have written that CIF prices are up by US#30. GLA as the cash gushes in in H1 2017 and even more so in H2
DevonianDracula
02 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices Today, Ferroalloy net is quoting Mozambique ilmenite in China at US$210-220 +US$30 per metric tonne for CIF. Onwards upwards??[link]
DevonianDracula
01 Mar 2017
Re: Perspective N2M,Base Resources (BSE) reported 2016 H2, their 2017 H1 figures yesterday, I think. Quite a swing from loss to profits, although to be fair they have a richer rutile element in their production mix. Perhaps a/the key point there was that ilmenite prices had increased by 100% from June 2016 to the end of the year, while prices had strengthened a bit more in 2017. Also that the zircon production/supply balance appears to have tightened, with expectations for moderate price increases this year.Also interesting, they have contracted ilmenite production at about current prices through till the end of February 2017. That is a very different approach to KMR's long term supply agreements with key partners, with price adjustments every 6 months on most of contracted supply. I am not sure that KMR would have made it through H1 2016 with prices based on the then current market prices!It certainly takes a bit longer for price swings to feed through into bottom line & cash flows. However, having relatively faithful partners as your customers is surely a safer business model.A fair amount of volume today. Has one of the lenders reduced?
Nice to Michu
01 Mar 2017
Re: Perspective Just glanced in here and see DD continues to add massive value. Again, very much appreciated, DDOver certain price levels every dollar extra for ilmenite more or less feeds straight through to the bottom line, and if DD is even vaguely close on his KMR cash generative and profitability Ilmenite levels then this share will deliver very handsomely from these levels as the year plays out. (assuming ilmenite prices don't fall meaningfully along the way)But this remains a tricky sob for a bunch of reasons - most already alluded to by sundry posters here - so DYOR and therefore a weak buy is all I can bring myself to click
DevonianDracula
24 Feb 2017
Re: Spreads Dear the Greedies,The quoted spreads are whatever they are, but avoid early trades when they can be silly. After that with patience, you can always get much tighter spreads if you buy from willing sellers or sell to willing buyers.
the greedies
24 Feb 2017
Spreads Greetings allAre the spreads on these still quite wide as indicated on here, all todays trades have been the same price 287 thoughThinking of having a pun
DevonianDracula
17 Feb 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices Ruidow now quoting US$ for Mozambique titanium![link] import ilmenite price is is also high and the spot offering is still tense; Vietnam A ore FOB price is 180-200 USD/ ton; India CIF price is 240-250USD/ton; Kenya without price offerings; Mozambique ilmenite price is 220 USD/ ton. The major India three miners affected by the local policy, the goods are still can’t shipped, there are only two companies can shipped; Vietnam ilmenite export was limited by quotas and cargo are difficult to enter; Affected by tight supply of domestic downstream, it is expected that ilmenite transaction price should increase in future.
indolent
16 Feb 2017
Valuing companies. For anyone interested here is a link to a thread from Lucullus on the topic.www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:KMR.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=11151500I'm now in a place where I can go after this sort of material without needing to take out a small mortgage bond. NB: the aforementioned poster came on to the site circa the height of the commodities cycle and gave some very good insight and advice that I wish I had enough experience to know was worth not just listening too but acting on. In my humble opinion his posts are worth a read and there aren't that many of them.
DevonianDracula
13 Feb 2017
KMR IR I was not expecting a substantive answer, & I did not get one. Still, a quick summary:KMR produces and sells 3 grades of ilmenite;Sales to China, which are largely of "just one grade, are normally sold FOB, but may be CIF";There could be two unlisted Mozambique producers of "ilmenite concentrate, which may include rutile & zircon". To me that sounds like HMC, which I doubt would include 54% ilmenite;H1 sales prices were agreed, in the main, in November;They could not comment on the cost of shipping & insurance for, as an example, a shipment of 50,000 tonnes to China. As a consequence, I am none the wiser as to the difference in US$ per tonne between FOB & CIF to China, and consequently the likely range for H1 cash flows & net income.
DevonianDracula
10 Feb 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices I see that Mozambique ilmenite for China is now being quoted as US$ 180-190 per tonne. Does anyone have an idea as what the would represent FOB at Moma? My attempts to work out shipping and insurance costs come in far too high![link]
DevonianDracula
06 Feb 2017
Re: Perspective KBill,Well said. I posted perhaps six months ago that ilmenite prices seemmed to be moving strongly upwards, but that it would probably need several quarters of positive Moma production updates before the sp would reflect fully the renewed strength of KMR.Since the we have seen a good Q3 and a better Q4, and continuing increases in ilmenite prices, but only a limited increase in the sp. Since then I posted my prediction for 350p+ at the end of 2016 and 450p+ at the end of 2017, but was very wrong for 2016! We should be seeing 2016 financials later this month, but I do not expect much more from that than was included in the Q4 update, although I live in hope of seeing clearer indications as to the H1 sales price for ilmenite.When we have the Q1 update, we, and the market, should be better able to judge the cash and profit generating capacities of KMR at prices negotiated in late 2016. You mentioned the need for a price of US$180+ to see good profits. However, my view is that an ilmenite price above about 125 per tonne shouls see KMR being cash generative, and a price above circa 135 per tonne should see KMR generatiing net profits, with every dollar aboth the break even level adding a million to the pot. At 180 for ilmenite, taking into account sales of zircon and rutile at circa 800, my glass would be fairly full!Still, it may not be till we see H1 figures, perhaps until we see Q3, that the market will conclude that the past has passed. 5 to 6 pounds at the year end? It could even be higher. GLA
Kinyara Bill
05 Feb 2017
Perspective Kenmare is a punctured balloon at the moment, carrying a hole as a result of poor financial performance and perceived lack of trust in management. Good news inflates the balloon, but the inevitable lack of news between calendared events sees a slow leak down again. There's more air going in these days but the situation remains the same which frustrates many it seems. A repair is needed, and 2017 might just deliver it for the patient.I do wonder if some of us take advantage of hindsight. Kenmare expanded too soon, became laden with debt and then almost went under when the market turned. Many miners made similar mistakes of course, though few were as heavily geared when the drop in market took place. But surely we investors made the same mistake that Kenmare did, if we over-invested during the good times? And what if Kenmare had not expanded when they did? Well, they would not carry the same debt but would surely have made heavy losses; their cost per tonne would be much higher for one. And do we really think that, in that scenario, they could now go to the banks, or shareholders and say something like "we're losing money but we think (not certain) the upturn is coming, can we have hundreds of millions of dollars please?". Plenty of other players would be in a better position to grab that slice of market before Kenmare could be up and running, and iluka would probably have bought the asset by now and even cheaper than they subsequently offered. I doubt shareholders would be much better off.Things do seem to be improving and even small upward shifts in price could be transformational from here on. Anything above 180 usd and we see good profits and I think a small dividend could soon be on the cards in that case. That has the added benefit of stabilising the sp a bit as any drop sees a corresponding rise in yield, and I suspect income investors are rather more patient than the rest.Let's see what transpires but things are looking up and, having waited seven years, I can wait more without undue alarm. Being positive, I see £5-6 by year end.
