DevonianDracula
25 Mar 2017
Results conference call Well worth listening in, in particular the Q&A starting about minute 35.Key point for me is that given the growth in production, and in particular the trend in prices on the Chinese spot market, the % of 2017 ilmenite contracted is lower than normal (28%) in November/December, leaving more room for KMR to benefit from ongoing price increases. Also their experience in China is in line with the price trend, although they have been achieving slightly lower.Final points, so far in 2017, problems with the electricity supply have been few and far between, while costs per tonne may be below guidance and sales prices per tonne (presumably not contracted) are increasing shipment by shipment. GLA
DevonianDracula
25 Mar 2017
Contango lse 2?s Contango,You say that the shareholder register shows the banks are not selling. Can you quote a website giving up to date details? My understanding is that only in the case of disclosed movements do the various sources have the basis to update. Of course, I could well be wrong
DevonianDracula
24 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on 2016 Copied from the lse bb:"What a damp squi(b?)d this quiz turned out to be. It looks as if every one of us will have guessed too high. What the (deleted as I was being blocked) is wrong with this company? £5.20 (Sagacityrules); £5.00 (Power); £4.80 (Contango); £4.70 (Chesh); £4.50 (Richorpoor); £4.40 (Kenmore); £4.30 (Bucklerfern); £3.90 (Supaman); £3.80 (Facevalue01); £3.70 (DevonianDracula, iii); £3.52 (Caposoka); £3.48 (Tommoo, iii); £3.28 (Caballero); £3.20 (Nosirender)."Also, the usual suspicions that some dark force is trying to manipulate the sp. Far more likely is that the lenders are quietly selling some of their circa 10 million shares. One had less than 3%, so they can sell all they want with no RNS, while the EIB would have to RNS any transactions taking their holding through any whole number %. True, they suffered haircuts, but got most of their money back, so sales at around the current sp would give them 133% of their subscription cost to lend elsewhere.We should get more clarity on that from any RNS and also the details of major shareholdings at roughly the time of publication of the full 2016 accounts. GLA
Fools Like Us
24 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices Thanks very much for that Devonian, that has saved me some of my Morning reading!Excellent.FLU.
DevonianDracula
23 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices FLU,In my book, both on topic and off topic posts are welcome. My read on FOB Moma and CIF China gives a shipping and insurance cost of about US$10 per tonne. However allowing for demurrage costs off Moma, I am working with a total of US$20. If you look to page 18 of yesterday's KMR results presentation, you will see November 16th Ilmenite spot prices in China of circa 825RMB per tonne, now circa 1750RMB. It is hard to work back to a Moma FOB US$ equivalent, but whatever it was is likely to be the rough basis of H1 KMR contract prices, while H2 contract prices could be twice as high.Page 24 indicate an average 2016 price for ilmenite of circa US$105 per tonne FOB, with prices well up on H1.The current rate RMB per US$ is about 6.88430, circa US$ 120 per tonne for 825RMB?
Fools Like Us
23 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices ( BlueJay) As pointed out yesterday JAY - developing an Ilmenite project in Greenland, currently waiting for imminent JORCCurrently up 17%.Very low cost as a Glacier is doing all the Front end crushing work & they have to dredge the fine ilmenite sand from the beach - I don't like posting on other boards, but it is worth looking into& any opinion good or bad - respected.FLU.
Fools Like Us
23 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices Hi Devonian Dracula! We meet yet again on a board!Kenmare is looking good after the travails of the refinancing- good news indeed. At those prices for Ilmenite it's very promising after Iluka took over Sierra Rutile I felt that prospects for the Mineral sands business may look up.Took some JAY in placing & after Tronox' latest acquisition looks as though M & A is back in.See: [link] may see some of that? It's a well placed orebody. Supplying the Indian market is easier for it.FLU.
DevonianDracula
23 Mar 2017
Re: Ilmenite prices Today Ferroalloy is quoting Mozambique ilmenite in China at US$230-250, up US$25 per metric tonne, CIF.[link] & upwards!! GLA
Fools Like Us
23 Mar 2017
Ilmenite market First, it's great news that Kenmare is much healthier, long may it continue.In researching the ilmenite market, if anyone is interested I came across Bluejay some time Ago.[link] a beach in Greenland that has high levels ( up to 90%, typically 30/70% of sands)Known for decades, but, with Global Warming it's now ice free for a long part of the year.JORC expected very soon.Carry on!FLU.
Nice to Michu
22 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on 2016 ''The product market recovery remains at an early stage and we believe higher prices will be required to meet growing titanium feedstock demand''If this is anywhere near a correct prediction then this has to be a very strong buy. Even if Ilmenite - zircon and rutile - prices stayed at current levels into the future then all we need is the sales teams to get those 1 year - or more - client contracts signed at even semi close to recent month spot prices for this to be a strong buy at current s/p levels (imho)The market is supposed to be forward looking and therefore I'm - very - surprised that the s/p here - off the back of this mornings update - is down today, as I type. Even including this being a tricky share - for sundry reasons that have been mentioned widely before - this s/p should be higher now inmho and will go higher as we go through 2017, I expect.There may well even be a dividend in 2018 of before. Including this, good spot prices and ongoing operational efficiency improvement and balance sheet decent again, Institutional Investors should be piling into this already.. Hopefully when one or two new ones come on board there will be a herd effect and this moves up to 500+p in the coming 3 to 6 months.
DevonianDracula
22 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on 2016 Correction, Bucklerfern has posted the link to the results presentation:[link] 9 give FOB prices, which while quite hard to read across, seem to show for ilmenite circa 95/112 and for zircon roughly 670/690. All figures in US$ per tonne, H1/H2. So I had initially been a little too optimist for ilmenite, but more so for zircon.I will need to go back to November & December 2016 China CIF prices. However, these are currently US$210-220, giving an FOB equivalent of perhaps US$190-200, or about 70-80% higher than H2. GLA
DevonianDracula
22 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on 2016 H2 sales revenues were a fair bit lower than I was hoping, and ilmenite H2 average prices, which are not disclosed, were probably about half of the current FOB price. Consequently, H1 this year and even more so H2 should look much better. GLA
DevonianDracula
21 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on On LSE, a call for 2016 net income predictions:Here it is, US$16 million positive before tax and after taking some US$69million lender haircut into account. I have left a margin for error in there and it could be a few million higher. GLA
Tommoo
17 Mar 2017
Re: Pin the tail on My entry is 348. This is gripping and many well known names will be on the line !!!
DevonianDracula
17 Mar 2017
Pin the tail on the donkey.LSE is running a competion to predict the sp on Friday next week. All answers will be wrong, some more so than others!My stab at drawing donkey blood is between 320p and 420p, tighter guess, 370p, a shade above the 2016 intra-day high. GLA
