richtwo
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results only in Mozambique!
Kinyara Bill
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results We are in the rough, stuck behind a thorny bush. But I see a pool-style shot which will see a ricochet off a neighbouring tree and straight into the hole for a birdie, or at least close enough for a short putt. Do fat lady singers play golf?
richtwo
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results I like a nice divot so long as the ball flies where it supposed to...
Kinyara Bill
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results Humblest, I was looking at operating loss.....am divot.
indolent
24 Aug 2016
Re: Sentiment - To: Nice to Michu N2M,Our calculation of the multiples differ but thanks for the response from your memory. As for your comment, thus: "If one was to reach 10 bags from bottom in the future - a big if granted - I'd definitely expect it to be KMR well ahead of LMI ( both can do it, I believe ) "LMI seems to have been well-served by an increase in the Rand platinum price just shy of 30% from the trough at, circa, the turn of the year. I've yet to read KMR's results and the related posts but it's clear ilmenite prices haven't been supportive yet. On the other hand although pt came back strongly it didn't move up anything like as strongly as LIM's share price did. So, there's some southern promise but for now it's still jam tomorrow as it has been for yonks. If you made a lot on LMI then I hope you make even more here. I suspect Lucullus would like to finally see that for holders too. Let's hope all those uninhabited Chinese cities need a paint job courtesy of maintenance schedules as I'm not sure what else is going to drive demand substantially enough to set off the fireworks anytime soon. Indy
DevonianDracula
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results KB,I said what I said, and meant what I said! Page 17 of the H1 finacials:Loss for the period - US$47,144k! For the bright side of the abyss, have a close read through of the Results Presentation.
Kinyara Bill
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results Devon, did you mean US$47 million loss, thought more like US$25 million or am I misreading?Reflecting on my last post about 'remarkable' rise in sales into China (Mozambique mentioned as one of the suppliers)..... I now suspect this was KMR flogging stuff off cheaply to raise cash in a somewhat desperate manner. These sales would have been agreed before the capital raise and, in light of H1 results, I can see why KMR might have been a little desperate for some cash. If correct, it just shows how close they came to sinking the ship.....
DevonianDracula
24 Aug 2016
Re: H1 results -China, or rather Asia, H1 sales revenues represent 44% by value, and there spot prices are reasonably transparent.
DevonianDracula
24 Aug 2016
H1 results are best described as abysmal.Of course, if you fall into the abyss, it pays to scramble up the far side ASAP.-H1 shipments increased 7% while revenues plunged by 24%.-Cash operating costs per tonne of finished product reduced by 22% to "only" US$153 per tonne. Fine, but H1 2015 was marked by very low production. Q1 guidance was for 2016 costs per tonne to be US$141 on production of 950,000 tonnes of ilmenite, so H2 production would need to be circa 547,100, plus associated zircon & rutile, at an average cash cost per tonne around US$131 per tonne. Hard work called for from the BOD.-H1 loss of US$47 million (H1 2015 - US$27 million).-Life of the mine extended, so PPE depreciation reduced, with the net book value needing 34 more years to "write-down to zero". Look forward to high expeditures on repairs and maintenance, coupled with reducing productivity from the old "bangers"!-H1 ilmenite prices per tonne sold down 31% on H1 2015 as KMR flogged off "lower quality ilmenite".-Cash flow from operations marginally positive as KMR sold ilmenite in advance (still in inventory and not yet in sales), got lucky on sales timing(?) and reduced receivables while increasing payables.Quite abysmal, so what does the other side promise, I hope.-Chinese spot ilmenite prices up by over 50% since the start of 2016.-General tightenning and increasing ilmenite prices (remember KMR normally agrees prices in advance, so H1 prices were plucked from the bottom of the pit).-China, or rather Asia, H1 sales revenues by value, and there spot prices are reasonably transparent.In fact, I am amazed that the latest sp, trade as of 13.54 is 5p up on the close. I would have expected it to take longer for the sunlight to shine through. GLA!
Kinyara Bill
24 Aug 2016
H1....bad but every cloud Revenues less than I expected; looks like the H1 average ilmenite price must have been sub-US$100. But, on the bright side, they have maintained EBITDA despite this calamitous drop in prices. Cost per tonne is moving down to their FY guidance and, crucially, prices appear to be firming and now increasing. I would not be surprised if they manage to achieve breakeven EBITDA for H2, maybe better if zircon hits target production, and though another loss for the year it will be a lot smaller than 2015. The outlook is key here and that is beginning to look more promising. Also note something like US$20 million in interest payments in H1, that will also drop by 80%+ for the future which will make a big contribution to the bottom line.If this is the worse-case position then I remain confident for the future, fingers crossed and all that.
Nice to Michu
23 Aug 2016
Re: Sentiment - To: Nice to Michu Hi Indolent, My memory is sketchy on LMI pre rights prices but I believe you're right on the rights terms i.e. 46 new shares of 1p each for every 1 held pre rights and then a consolidation bringing the 1p to 100p new money..... and from there it fell to around 35p and has since bounced to highs of close to 250p but is now around 220p ( so bottom recent peak I make as a 6 bagger and an around five bagger at current 220's levels )I'm taking the bottom for KMR as a very approx. 60p in new money ( .ie .28p in old adjusted to new money) So lets count the bags from here: nearly 4 already ( alas as i'm only now a little up after gaining back legacy losses ) Interesting to watch parallel progression - or regression but hopefully not - of LMI and KMR. If one was to reach 10 bags from bottom in the future - a big if granted - I'd definitely expect it to be KMR well ahead of LMI ( both can do it, I believe )
Kinyara Bill
19 Aug 2016
Sentiment on the up Try this link (I don't pay for any of this but the leading sentence must bode well).[link]
DevonianDracula
19 Aug 2016
Re: Sentiment Perhaps I should have said "PER of 10"!
richtwo
19 Aug 2016
Re: Sentiment DDmany thanks all made sense apart from the " (per of 10) " in : sp around 550p (per of 10)CheersR2
DevonianDracula
19 Aug 2016
Re: Sentiment NtM,KMR hit 62.55p intra-day back in the good old days of July 2011(?). I sold enough that day at circa 61.57p(?) to get my cumulative cash from disposals above my cumulative cost of KMR investments. Of course, as Indy would have said, and has said repeatedly, I should have sold all that day.Tommoo,Wise words indeed. In general, no credit where credit is due. I think that in my life I have followed up and acted on 6 recommendations. 1st, a friend in London suggested a little oily, I actually made a small gain on that. 2nd, an Irish colleague, who recommended 2(KMR & Ennex, now "bankrupt" PCI). On Kenmare, I still need a higher sp to realise taxable gains on my current holding and I love having to pay tax at 16%! Worse, I found myself working in Australia for a couple of months a long, long time ago. I called our local office when I arrived heavily jet-lagged on a Thursday afternoon, to ask what time the next morning I should be in. Answer, 16.15 and dressed casually. Friday by 16.30, I had been dragged "kicking and screaming" by the office head to a hostelly across the road. After a few jars, Irishman said that there was a race meeting starting at mid-day on Saturday, and was I coming. 11.50am the next day, by now extremely jet-lagged, I cast my eye over the runners in race 1 in the paddock and made my choice, backed to win with 100 Aussies. Before collecting my winnings on race 1, I did the same. Walking up to the bookies to collect, and back to win in race 2, Irishman asked me my choice, and told me "remember, 50% of your winnings in the back pocket, never to be touched." The only time in my life that I have backed to win all of the winners in a race meeting, so never listen to and act on a friend's investment advice. In all likelihood I would have put five hundred aussies from my first win in my back pocket, for bets on the remaining races, but the first 3 winners were rank outsiders judging by the odds offered. 3rd, 3 investment wild cards vaguely put forward by my brokers. 1st, I sold at 10% of cost, just in time. 2nd, too late, already bankrupt. 3rd, SWL, I bought to a far greater value than 1 to 5, over a period of months in 2010 (very, very illiquid), and sold out from late summer to late autumn 2015 at a fine gain. They are currently almost 30% up on my average exit price! I still ask my brokers what they think about A, B or C Plc, almost always shares that I already hold, not always with them. Often, if they say sell, or buy, I buy or sell, perhaps with a delay of hours, days or weeks. A useful sounding board.R2,Scepticism is very much in order with anything to do with markets, people, politicians, and even KMR and its BOD. It is worth remembering that in 2012, KMR made an operating profit of US$80.4 million, on a production of 720,100 tonnes of ilmenite and much lower recoveries of zircon & rutile as a % of ilmenite. Get production of ilmenite above 1 million tonnes with sales prices (much) closer to US$200 per tonne and with minimal finance costs, then at the current exchange rate you might well be seeing an eps of 55p and an sp around 550p (per of 10). Throw in strong wiffs of ilmenite prices heading further up and costs still coming down a bit, and who knows.For myself, I would be quite happy with an sp of 350p at the end of this year and 450p at the end of the next, but the more the merrier, as Snow White said when she discovered the dwarfs and a soft drink.
