Kenmare Resources Forum

KMR has surpassed its 50 day moving average (10.8) for the first time in over a year. The next point of resistance is 15p which will be reached (breached??) shortly......

will this fall ever stop?

I too am in small miners and small oils companies and apart from FTO generally bad, I think I picked the wrong sectors.

maprice 1, what report. Some details please

Have we hit bottom yet ?

My opinion has no bearing on my entry stock price(s). I believe KMR is completing a three year down-cycle, which is not entirely unusual in this sector. I am fairly convinced that the technical background together with the emerging fundamentals will drive a self-perpetuating up-cycle. Not for the faint-hearted however!!

We have reached the bottom of the cycle. With commodity prices looking to firm, and a more stable power supply scenario, H2 will herald a sustained cyclical upturn.

7 figure holding very brave , unless you are on the BOD, even then very brave. this has , so far been one of my worst buys.

It seems illmentite prices are hard to discern and standardise (e.g. not quoted) due to different grades, overheads such as transportation, and specifics of agreements such as forward contract/take off, etc. Prices may be hedged to some degree for the benefit of both the seller and buyer in defence of volatility and future increases versus current perceived low 'spot', though there isn't such a thing. Party specific forward agreements would benefit both parties, giving certainty of supply/price over a longer period. KMR may also be able to get additional leverage from its proximity to shipping. That versus long overland haulage to principal ports. I've seen trucks going overland from the intertior in Ethiopia to reach ports and it ain't pretty. The company shipped a lot of product in Q1 and be sure it did not get loaded on boats and then dumped in the Mozambique Channel. Reading between the lines, when the company is starting to talk about paying dividends, I think they are giving a message, and, I don't necessarily believe it is an attempt to be misleading. They are expecting to be profitable. I wouldn't be investing for the dividend. What you need to be working out is what is the prospective EPS and what is the prospective P/E. We also don't have a current view (as far as I've seen) of the current production costs and how unit cost has been helped with the expansion. In my view, financial stocks and technical stocks are priced well ahead of the true recovery curve. Sands mining is hardly exciting. I anticipate a pick up in real economic activity (the productive kind, not the paper kind) going forward. We may be seeing that matched by a wee [editorial understatement!] correction in the main indices as someone gets to grips with the reality that DAX isn't worth north of 9800, S&P north of 1900, and TSLA north of 200 BS. In fact, I suspect DAX has been telling us since January that enough is enough and the charts show a titanic struggle. If the KMR.L (JEV.IR) had 60c in 2007, 2011 and 2012, you think it can't do it again? Would you discount the possibility that it couldn't be > 100c within two years? Irrespective, at TODAYs price this represents a fantastic punt. Just don't be greedy and put too much in or you might end up joining all of the moaning minnies on message boards who got 'suckered by management' previously and are now stuck on the bitching treadmill instead of seeking some worthwhile alternative. One thing I hate to see is people trawling and trolling on message boards after taking a bath and unable to tear themselves away. You can blame whoever you want, rant about management, etc, but at the end of the day if you took too much risk on Kenmare without having full sight of the facts, the first place blame shall rest is with yourself. You may not like me for that, but you alone are in charge of your investments, you do the research and you should validate other research you get. If you are lazy and rely on others to do it for you, you are waiting for someone to put their hands in your pocket. If you are one of those people, it won't just happen you with Kenmare Resources, it will be a repeating feature of your divestment existence. 18p would be good. 20p superb. But I think there is more, much more, than that. The caution I have is that as a one mine operation, there are risks of a geographic and geopolitical nature which could arise and one must be sensitive to that in terms of how much you put on the line and your general attitude to risk management.

T hanks Peace. Yes it will be nice that over Easter SP of Kenmare will be nice and stable . I can't bring my self to sell at a significant loss. The normal downward progress will probably be resumed on Tuesday.