Wexboy
29 Apr 2016
TGISVP - Kingspan Group 2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part I):Company: Kingspan Group (KSP:ID)Last TGISVP Post: HereMarket Cap: EUR 3,910 MPrice: EUR 22.05Kingspan’s firing on all cylinders… The transition towards more energy efficient buildings & building techniques – in both developed & (increasingly) emerging markets – provides an attractive secular growth tailwind, while relentless industry consolidation underpins an eat or be eaten strategy. Management capitalised on the company’s financial strength (as I’d expected) in late 2014, with an astonishing six month blitz of acquisitions. US/Canadian acquisitions propelled North America to 20% of total revenue, while buying Joris Ide rounded out pan-European exposure & delivered a 25% step-change in revenue. [Astonishingly, KSP still finished FY-2015 with net debt at just 1.0 times EBITDA]. With two acquisitions only closing in H1-2015, annualised H2 results offer a better run-rate, in terms of revenue/profitability.That pegs current trading margin at 9.4%, on €3.1 billion of revenue, leaving Kingspan’s peak 13.3% margin (from 2006) well within its grasp again. A fairer valuation would average the two – implying an 11.3% margin, which deserves a 1.125 Price/Sales ratio (noting the company’s superior cash generation). [NB: Observing market/M&A multiples over the years, per my rule of thumb a 10-12.5% operating margin deserves a 1.0 P/S multiple (on average). And higher margins justify expanded multiples, e.g. a 30% margin might deserve a 4.0-4.5 P/S multiple. Also, see my related DCC notes & commentary here]. And with finance expense a mere 5% of trading profit, Kingspan’s got substantial firepower to pursue more earnings-enhancing acquisitions (without impacting valuation, or imposing undue financial risk). We should upgrade our valuation accordingly, by: i) adjusting for (surplus) cash, and ii) adjusting for incremental debt potential of €0.6 billion*, which would increase finance expense (at a standard 5%) to a still-manageable 15% of trading profit – but we’ll apply my usual 50% haircut to be conservative. [*Here’s the math: (288.4 M Trading Profit * 15% – 14.8 M Finance Expense) / 5%]. Recognising the current & potential growth trajectory here, we should also factor/average an appropriate earnings multiple into our intrinsic value estimate: With earnings up 21% & 70% in the last two years, just about any multiple’s justified…again, to be prudent, we’ll limit ourselves to a 20.0 Price/Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2-2015 run-rate
EUR 1.23 Adj Dil EPS * 20.0 P/E + (3,078 M Rev * 1.125 P/S + 212 M Cash + 569 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 177 M Shares) / 2 = EUR 23.50Kingspan’s now marginally under-valued – quite surprising for an outstanding growth story which offers an attractive combination of organic growth & a steady diet of acquisitions. Management’s discipline financing this growth is remarkable too – they’ve increased the outstanding share count a mere 6% in the past decade, relying instead on the judicious use of leverage. KSP’s never really been a cheap stock, but noting its balance sheet strength & capacity to generate cash, plus the white space still ahead (for example) in N America & the Rest of the World, the current share price & price target are well deserved. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them marching ahead together in the years to come.Price Target: EUR 23.50Upside/(Downside): 7%For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.
