eagle51
23 Oct 2017
Re: Value Sorry for late response, admiralty. I've been AWOL.Confidence is the answer, I reckon - did you note that Ron Lansdell (Ops director) added to his already large holding (he rounded up to 900k shares) in the placing? He must have a fair idea of what Verbier's about and the read across to Cortina (and maybe Meribel).I expect you read what Benitz wrote in the first RNS about hoping to be able to make an announcement about an asset acquisition 'in the near future'. I'm expecting some interesting additions to the share register following the placing - the notifications could start coming tomorrow.I've no idea why the SP seems to be pegged to the indicative price in a £4m share issue taking place in 2+ weeks. The offer looks to be a sop to PIs and will probably be massively over-subscribed (unless AIM is madder or more crooked than I already believe it to be). It shouldn't stay in the vicinity of £2 for long if sense prevails. People who think they're being clever by selling enough shares at above £2 to buy them back in the offer for a few pence cheaper seem likely to me to be disappointed if they genuinely want shares to hold, if only by having their applications severely scaled back. It's up to the directors to decide what the rules are and how many shares each application should be allocated. They'll have seen what happens when a lot of small PIs, who regard JOG's shares as no more than betting slips to be cashed in as soon as they're in profit to provide money for their next bet, all start behaving like lemmings. Seems to me there's a possibility JOG's directors might prefer the shares on offer to go to those with larger holdings as it's more likely they'll be held for longer. Directors don't like their charge's share price jumping all over the place for no good reason - it's bad for the profile. I was able to add to my holding at a favourable price on Friday. It all seems to be coming together well to me. The share price should sort itself out in time. Hope you're long and strong.all imo/dyor
forwardloop
21 Oct 2017
Malcy Jersey Oil and Gas (LON:JOG)One of the worst kept secrets was that JOG was on the road and looking for money, mainly as it is so much of a no-brainer. With a fantastic discovery at Verbier, and operator Statoil looking to appraise the 25-130m as well as a likely exploration well on the already de-risked Cortina prospect, a raise now is perfect timing. I say that as with the inevitable drilling programme over the next few months any delay would have spooked the market, to get it out of the way is in my view very wise indeed.At 200p the offer is in my view so much of a giveaway that I wouldnt be surprised to see an announcement very soon that it has been massively oversubscribed at this level. Also it should be borne in mind that JOG is still looking for UKCS production opportunities and strengthening the balance sheet at this time is no bad idea. Longer term this will be viewed as a chance not to have missed, I see a minimum of 5x the current share price as a rough TP.
Ripley94
21 Oct 2017
Re: Herald Scotland The guidance price on Thursday ( C ) was 200 / 210p.Rns Friday made public ABB.Dilution since April, wonder what 250p equivalent would be, if anyone is smart enough to do the maths ?
Mikeclayton2
20 Oct 2017
Bookbuild 200p was a good price, the first price extension was at 11am indicating it took less than 3 hours to raise the 20 mil.Reading the small print the directors are of the opinion that the market cap of the company will be in the range 80 to 400 mil depending on whether the recent find is 25 mil barrels or 130 mil barrels. Cost is estimated at 22 per barrel. It’s a real game changer for JOG.
cassash
20 Oct 2017
Re: bookbuild sorry only £20m. from last post
cassash
20 Oct 2017
Re: bookbuild sorry only £20m. from last post
cassash
20 Oct 2017
Re: bookbuild maybe minimum 200p is a bit to expensive, this bookbuild should have been done and dusted by now, its only £10m.which equates to £4 old money.i would have thought 150p would have been a fairer price for the bookbuild
cassash
20 Oct 2017
Re: bookbuild wil be done and dusted by 11pm
admiralty12
20 Oct 2017
Bookbuild Bookbuild......It will be interesting to see how quickly this will fill. Closing it today would be a good sign.
admiralty12
20 Oct 2017
Re: Value Eagle...for a company which does not want to be an explorer, it's acting remarkably like one. £24m capital raise announced to explore Cortina.Either they must be very confident or Statoil don't want their 18% and are arm twisting.
Ripley94
19 Oct 2017
Re: Herald Scotland This has fallen back since excitement of the 9th .. ( steadily over 10 days )It had been jumping from 60 to 80.After drooping from 250 levels in April this year.Roulette.
admiralty12
13 Oct 2017
Malcy Update According to Malcy it is now looking likely that a further exploration well might be drilled on Verbier with a chance of another on Cortina. This was a likely outcome, especially on the Verbier where a well planned exploration well could then be used for production should the results be favourable. If the results of the sidetrack can be firmed up then JOG might look to sell at least some of their holding as, I assume, they would not really want to use existing cash to help fund more exploration.With a smaller field such as this, I don't personally think Statoil would pay much more than $6 barrel but that is a total guess on my part. I think the current SP is a good baseline to move forward from. MC of £30m with cash in bank, Verbier worth (I think) between $25m and $120m, Cortina asset de-risked, tight share availability and a few locked in players who bought on the initial news and now waiting for a bounce.
II Editor
13 Oct 2017
NEW ARTICLE: The Oil Man: Jersey Oil and Gas "WTI $50.60 -70c, Brent $56.25 -69c, Diff -$5.65 +1c, NG $2.99 +10cA bit of drift yesterday as markets read the final of the three monthlies, this one from the IEA and was more bearish than the others. It rather spoiled the party as it reduced ..."[link]
The Pieman
12 Oct 2017
Re: Value Agreed - present price does indeed look a bit silly.Am in The quick profit merchants will disappear and the long term value holders will snap up some bargains methinks.Looking at the Mkt cap - this seems a fantastic opportunity. Due to the limited number of shares in issue, this could prove to be very volatile with tremendous upside from here.Am going to buy on the dips.GLA.
eagle51
11 Oct 2017
Re: Value Thanks admiralty - I'd been trying to find out (using google) if there's any significance to oil being rich around the borehole (which I take to be the point at which the well "emerges" into the oil filled sands, or whatever - I don't have any background in oil to guide me although I've been invested in a few oil companies and still am - SQZ is my favourite apart from this one). I was drawn towards another conclusion but I fully accept your interpretation which is based on real experience and better judgement than I can make.I hope they don't have to drill another well, which always brings significant risk (and cost - which JOG would struggle to meet). Logical thing to me would be for Statoil to buy out JOG's 18% interest in P2170 as JOG doesn't want to be an explorer. Assuming the discovery is commercial I'd take $6pb for Verbier and throw in Cortina and Meribel for nothing (funding the risks would be a big stretch for JOG) based on mid estimates in the first CPR post-discovery -say 100MMboe. That might be worth c.$100m (£75m) to JOG. We shall see.That would be worth £7.50 a share without taking anything else into account.I'm in for the long ride and will support whatever decisions the directors make as they're in the best position to make them and I trust their judgement. They've got a lot of their money tied up in this so they'll definitely be trying!!The present price looks a bit silly to me but I suppose there's still significant risk. There always is.GL
